Black Dog said:
Yes, I know very well that the probability for each event does not change, also, I know that each event is fully independent and there is no "memory" of past events.
OK so far...
Black Dog said:
However, flipping a coin 1000 times does not make certain that you will get that 1 in 1000 event but it does become
more probable that the 1 in 1000 event will occur at least once if you flip several thousand times, again,
not a certainty.
..but there you go again "it does become more probable"...the probability
does not change, it is fixed at the outset. You would be correct to say that you are more likely to get a 1/1000 event to occur in 2000 attempts than in 1000 attempts, but it does not become
more probable in the second lot of 1000 attempts.
Black Dog said:
What I was trying to say is that the odds of crashing do not change, like you said very well, but the risk perception changes. Further, the more times you ride the more attempts at winning the jackpot you are making, even though the odds on each attempt are unchanged. It is true that for a .001 chance that 10000 attempts should produce roughly 10 wins.
Yep, OK so far...
Black Dog said:
The more attempts that are made the closer to the win to lose ratio you get, even though there is a smaller and smaller chance that you will never get a win.
Bzzzt, the chance of getting a win still
stays the same. The really dumb thing about slot machines (and gambling in general) is that the win:loss ratio is always skewed towards the "loss" side. So even if you 'guarantee' your win by playing an infinite number of times, you still
LOSE.
Random probabilities are a tricky thing for us humans to understand, likely because true randomness is such an uncommon thing in human experience. Most things in life can be influenced by skill, experience and diligence, so true radomness goes against the grain.
Getting back to the crashing scenario, I think the vast majority of crashes have nothing to do with random probability (bad luck) but are due to inattention or lack of skill (riding to the conditions/to your level of ability).
Do I wear a helmet? Yes, every ride, for the whole ride - I very occasionally take it off to ride up hills in extreme heat, under controlled conditions (off open roads, riding slowly). I'm mostly a cautious rider, and have a couple of decades experience commuting in
nasty traffic without injury, but that's not to say I haven't crashed/been crashed into. But when not commuting, whether on my roadie or MTB I like to have fun, occasionally push the speed envelope, and both experience and common sense tell me that if there's unexpected sand in the next hairpin and I hit it at 50km/h, there is a not insignificant probability of crashing.
I know a couple of people with head injuries from climbing falls that would have ben avoided by helmets; one died, the other survived but with major deficits - can't work, walks with a stick, speech difficulties. I also know a cyclist who had a serious brain injury despite wearing a helmet - she spent weeks in ICU, years later has impulsivity, concentration and sleeping problems and headaches, but is otherwise _very_ high functioning; chances are she would be dead had she been helmetless.