Can somebody answer a simple question? We know some of Lance's Hemoglobin values from 2009 and 2010 right? How are they compared to the Norwegian skiers from the 90's?
i don't have a problem with new posters. i only notice that some appearances and and quick disappearances COINCIDE with the appearance and a disappearance of certain controversial issues.Mr. Brooks said:#python: I notice that you don’t seem to take kindly to newcomers. I still hope that you may find these figures of some interest. They indicate the number of currently active male XC athletes with a valid FIS license, nations selected by me.
AUT: 83
GER: 194
SWE: 495
FIN: 513
RUS: 724
NOR: ~1.700
Of course, this is just the top of the iceberg, as many racers do not care to apply for a FIS license (young racers, racers only interested in local races etc.). In Norway the total number of licensed racers in the 2011/12 season was 8.684, up from 7.855 the previous season. I do not have corresponding figures for other nations.
http://www.fis-ski.com/uk/competito...NOR&status=O&fiscode=&Search=Search&limit=100
http://www.skiforbundet.no/langrenn...s Fagmøte juni 2012/Skilisenser 2011-2012.pdf
python said:so, it does not appear that norway holds the lead in grass roots racing but, i will concur, normay does lead in quality...but that's a long way from concluding that norway has a an exclusive key to breeding super racers.
Discgear said:Without doubt they are spending the most money, have the best support and are in front when it comes to training and equipment. Another important thing it's that almost the entire population in Norway is close to skiing opportunities due to the mountains and the climate. That's a big difference when you compare to Sweden.
Discgear said:Another important thing it's that almost the entire population in Norway is close to skiing opportunities due to the mountains and the climate. That's a big difference when you compare to Sweden.
Discgear said:In this article from New York Times there are some revealing facts, but you can’t find any information about this in Norwegian newspapers online http://www.nytimes.com/1994/02/28/sports/winter-olympics-smirnov-s-long-race-and-wait-are-over.html
Discgear said:And di Centa from this article in New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/1994/02/14/sports/winter-olympics-di-centa-of-italy-shouts-volare-to-freestyle-gold.html:
Today it seems to be a widespread consensus that di Centa, a Conconi protégé and Smirnov was doped. What about the two Norwegian friends which were even more successful in the forests? How come no Norwegian journalists hasn’t dug into those connections?
Tubeless said:Your assertion is that "natural selection" gives Norway the edge to win. If today's field is clean, why aren't Norwegians now beating everyone else by that 10% margin?
dukoff said:It's a good point to make. Though I think 10% is not realistic for a top level athlete, more like 5%+. And you can shave off a couple % by proper altitude training.
First of all, why exactly should today's field be clean, and how clean can we assume it to be?
We are beating the field quite hard on the womens side. The effect is noticable there. Yet some say that's special because it's such a thin field. Well that is exactly the point, that xc in general is a very thin field, not just the women. But while the men's field were still rather thin in the 90s, it's not so much today. And on the men's side since Dæhlie and Alsgaard Norway simply haven't had that type of talent, and the competition has become much better. In the 90s there really wasn't much quality stock to compete with. Gunde Svan, Wassberg and Mogren was out of the picture. The fall of ussr also put a systemic brake on the steady supply of performers they had through the 70s/80s.
And which nation would be supposed to dominate, if any? There were only Norway, Sweden, Finland and USSR with any historic precedence.
Compared to the field, the Norwegians were truely unique talents, and in a bit of a vacuum. Alsgaard recently finished 3rd in Norwegian national championship races two years in a row at the age ~40. This caused a great deal of embarressment for the Norwegian coaches.
Now just note that I haven't said that selection counts for the whole difference. What I've said is that I consider it the major factor. Without it, other advantages would not be sufficient to win. But I have isolated the arguments on this one issue, to make it even possible to reach some understanding.
To give my view on quantifying the numbers, I would suggest:
EPO advantage: +6%
Altitude training: 2%
Ski-grinding: 1.5% (on some snow conditions) up to 1992, then tapering off.
Technique/Efficiency: unknown
Waxing: +/- 0-1.5%.
We can discuss each of these individually. But to answer your question, the magnitude of doping-gain I consider had to be overcome by means of physical and talent/efficiency -advantage in the 90s lay in the range of 2~3%.
I also would like to say that I think the view that EPO made a quantum-leap on performance is very inaccurate. Before EPO you still had extensive use of other blood doping and peds. While EPO had a substantial impact due to it's ease of use, that is something which make a serious impact in cycling, with continuous racing over several weeks and locations. But it's not in itself any major leap in performance gain for single races like you have in xc.
dukoff said:Ski-grinding: 1.5% (on some snow conditions) up to 1992, then tapering off.
Waxing: +/- 0-1.5%.
Tubeless said:Chapter 6 from Tyler Hamilton's book gives a specific example of what a rise from 14.1 to 16.4 g/dl in Hb can do for performance - 9.7% improvement in an uphilll time trial at 2 months apart. Smirnov's Hb of 19.7 is yet another level up from that. What basis do you have to state that EPO would give just a 2-3% boost?
dukoff said:And you can shave off a couple % by proper altitude training.
Trond Vidar said:Now, the point is simply this: Although skiing is physically demanding - there are still so many factors that adds minutes to your race time. Wax, grind, stiffness of the ski, the compactness of the snow, and not to forget how you keep you composure and technique when the going gets rough. You cannot look at any single race and make conclusions.
workingclasshero said:"proper altitude training"
stop saying this. EVERYONE trains at altitude.
Cologna LIVES at 1500m ffs!
Most of Kenya's population that runs are born and live their whole lives at 2000m+. Still people from the western world think they have a better altitude regime![]()
dukoff said:If you use EPO, you have no reason to train at altitude. EPO can be considered to take you to a performance from base to +6%. Altitude training from base to +2%. But you can't get +8% by doing EPO + altitude. Hence, the "legally unavailable" additional effect of EPO is only +4%, as some of the advantage is achievable by legal means. That was part of the point of my post further up.
workingclasshero said:what?
that is, if you consider a higher HB the main or even only aim of altitude training.
which, funnily enough, is another typical norwegian trait.
Marius Bakken criticised this thinking.
He clearly didn't get through to yous.
dukoff said:If you use EPO, you have no reason to train at altitude. EPO can be considered to take you to a performance from base to +6%. Altitude training from base to +2%. Or more, depending on altitude which you compete. But you can't get +8% by doing EPO + altitude. Hence, the "legally unavailable" additional effect of EPO is only +4%, as some of the advantage is achievable by legal means. That was part of the point of my post further up.
Much of the physiological adaptions are the same. Just one is more effective, and illegal.
dukoff said:You are free to document and quantify the differences you have in mind so we have a base for further discussion.
dukoff said:I just suggested an EPO gain of 6%, not 2-3%.
Your numbers for Tylar includes him going from 63.5kg to 60.8kg body weight. That can not be included for an analysis of the pure EPO effect. His watts output not considering that weight change is 5.7%, consistent with my estimate.
He went from a 5.9% body fat to 3.8%.
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workingclasshero said:nice anecdote but I would expect pro's to be slightly better prepared. That said, I do think the skis are too important, at times xc skiing is more a vaxing contest than a physical one
workingclasshero said:not a single revealing or interesting fact here I'm afraid, it is well known in Norway that smirnov, daehlie and ulvang used to be very good friends, if you have access to TV 2 online you can watch reruns of the hiking programme they used to do together.
Tubeless said:A cyclist with an average VO2Max can win long bike races, even classics. A skier with an average VO2Max has no chance.
dukoff said:If you use EPO, you have no reason to train at altitude.
workingclasshero said:what, quantify as in taking numbers out of thin air like you did?
I'd rather quote Marius Bakken (google translated):
"Much of the recent research on altitude training focuses unfortunately almost entirely on getting higher "blood count". Some researchers say therefore relatively substantial that it should be at least 4 weeks in height to obtain a significant effect. This will provide twice the blood effect than 3 weeks.
The most important thing is that you get performance improvement of altitude training, not that you necessarily get higher blood levels.
Alongside an increase in blood levels will also altitude training result in changes at the gene level, pH, and significant changes in mitochondria. (Gore et.al 2006) This, and the sum of this, is what gives the effect on performance.
Hemoglobin decreases generally with around 0.5 g / dl in the week after returning to the lowlands. An athlete who has received a "blood effects" with hemoglobin increase from say 14 to 15 g / dl will be down to normal again after only two weeks in the lowlands by height stay.
When we know that the maximum performance effect in many of the athletes comes from the two weeks of the height and beyond, there is reason to question the importance of precisely this increase in blood levels."
altitude training for a higher HB onlyOnly in Norway
![]()
workingclasshero said:what, quantify as in taking numbers out of thin air like you did?
I'd rather quote Marius Bakken (google translated):
"Much of the recent research on altitude training focuses unfortunately almost entirely on getting higher "blood count". Some researchers say therefore relatively substantial that it should be at least 4 weeks in height to obtain a significant effect. This will provide twice the blood effect than 3 weeks.
The most important thing is that you get performance improvement of altitude training, not that you necessarily get higher blood levels.
Alongside an increase in blood levels will also altitude training result in changes at the gene level, pH, and significant changes in mitochondria. (Gore et.al 2006) This, and the sum of this, is what gives the effect on performance.
Hemoglobin decreases generally with around 0.5 g / dl in the week after returning to the lowlands. An athlete who has received a "blood effects" with hemoglobin increase from say 14 to 15 g / dl will be down to normal again after only two weeks in the lowlands by height stay.
When we know that the maximum performance effect in many of the athletes comes from the two weeks of the height and beyond, there is reason to question the importance of precisely this increase in blood levels."
altitude training for a higher HB onlyOnly in Norway
![]()
I generally agree with this estimate (and with your interpretation of tyler‘s gains) , though, in the 90’s the epo advantage could probably be pushed another couple % up by those willing to take the extra health risk - as there was no epo test to fear. Still, your argument that natural selection trumps blood doping remains a convenient hypothesis. notwithstanding your other numbers belowdukoff said:It's a good point to make. Though I think 10% is not realistic for a top level athlete, more like 5%+. And you can shave off a couple % by proper altitude training.
.To give my view on quantifying the numbers, I would suggest:
EPO advantage: +6%
Altitude training: 2%
Ski-grinding: 1.5% (on some snow conditions) up to 1992, then tapering off.
Technique/Efficiency: unknown
Waxing: +/- 0-1.5%
Discgear said:Indeed, one of the early anecdotes about the greatness of Dählie was that he held the world record of VO2Max 96 ml/kg/min. Later, after the widespread missuse of EPO came to public knowledge, we heard from the Norwegians that something was wrong with the test and that his VO2Max was significantly lower.
Trond Vidar said:A good read. Long lost, but the webarchive still has it.
http://web.archive.org/web/19990209200527/http://www.krs.hia.no/~stephens/bjorn.htm