Dubai Tour 2015 (2.HC) 04.02 - 07.02 2015

[Sciocco]

In terms of the overall, is Stage 3 tough enough that the likes of Gilbert and Valverde can get enough of a gap over the sprinters? I understand the final uphill to the Hatta Dam is only about 200m long which, even if it is 17% or whatever, surely won't be enough to peg back Cavendish if he has 20 seconds on them?

I was hoping the last 85km would be bumpy enough that it could cause some to drop. We'll see, I hope...

 

[Jspear]

I was hoping the last 85km would be bumpy enough that it could cause some to drop. We'll see, I hope...

I think it can be done....there are two categorized climbs before the final. There could be some good racing if the climbers want it I think.

 

[Dr. Juice]

There are quite a few hills before the final part of stage 3. Especially that one 40 km from the finish. 2.650 km 9%. This is a L-B-L type of climb.

Are some teams interested to drop the sprinters before the final murito which is only 150 m long and where a vintage Cavendish could win? (Or Degenkolb, Lobato nowadays) The answer is: OF COURSE

That climb will be done at full speed. A group of 50-60 riders will disappear into the distance. Even Degenkolb who isn't a classic sprinter won't stay in the group and lose 20-30 seconds. With a peleton at full speed you don't come back as soon as you lose more than 100 m.

Lobato might surprise and hang on. Otherwise it should be Valverde vs Gilbert vs other fast classic men (don't know the exact start list).

EDIT: When I say 50 or 60 riders....the last 20-25 of them will just hang on for dear life.

 

[jaylew]

Nibali doing a leadout?

Edit: well, that didn't last long

 

[jaylew]

Viviani takes it.

Cav
Guardini

Guardini went too early

 

[del1962]

Nice win for Viviani

 

[pastronef]

bravo Elia! nice sprint

 

[LosBrolin]

 

[willbick]

Cav is just part of the bunch looking at Kittel's asss nowadays...

 

[Rollthedice]

Good job Viviani. Hope to see more of him this year. Cav is obviously not the rider he used to be.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Nice win for Viviani. I wonder if he can step up a bit this year? Sky is doing a good job at least.

It looks as though Guardini has improved his positioning a lot this year! He did some great work the last kilometres staying on Cavendish's wheel. Usually he finishes the job off much better than he did today though. Normally he would have just waited till Cavendish started his sprint.

 

[del1962]

Sky have a decent lead out train for Viviani here in G, Fenn, Eisel and Swift, wonder how many of these will be at Giro

 

[pastronef]

Sky have a decent lead out train for Viviani here in G, Fenn, Eisel and Swift, wonder how many of these will be at Giro

Fenn Swift Eisel doable
G.Thomas no, he'll ride the Tour

 

[MatParker117]

Konig, Porte, Deignan, Henao, Knees, Eisel, Fenn, Swift, Viviani

 

[DFA123]

Good job Viviani. Hope to see more of him this year. Cav is obviously not the rider he used to be.

Has his top speed dropped off or has the bar just been raised by the new generation? There are more riders who are specialising exclusively on sprinting and a much higher level of competition than when Cav was fighting against much more rounded riders like Freire, Hushovd and Boonen for wins.

 

[Pippo_San]

Too many disinformed people about Viviani. The kid has always got the speed, but poor positioning skills. You drive him at the front, you get a winner.
Maybe he's found the right environment. We'll see.

Glad to see Guardini back to real business also. The hype train is starting again!

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Too many disinformed people about Viviani. The kid has always got the speed, but poor positioning skills. You drive him at the front, you get a winner.
Maybe he's found the right environment. We'll see.

Glad to see Guardini back to real business also. The hype train is starting again!

Did anyone say otherwise?

 

[Wallenquist]

Prediction for tommorow ? I would say it's 50/50 that Cav will survive the climbs and will be up there in the last kilometers. The question is how much can he loose on the last 250m. He has 16 seconds on Valverde and Gilbert, 13 secs on Swift. Might be not enough but then again he will have another chance on Saturday to grab 10 seconds.

 

[Netserk]

If he is in the bunch with 1km to go, he will win the GC.

 

[BeagRigh]

Prediction for tommorow ? I would say it's 50/50 that Cav will survive the climbs and will be up there in the last kilometers. The question is how much can he loose on the last 250m. He has 16 seconds on Valverde and Gilbert, 13 secs on Swift. Might be not enough but then again he will have another chance on Saturday to grab 10 seconds.

If Cav is there with 1km (...or 250m) to go I can't see him losing that much time. I think he will get dropped with 40km to go though.

I'm picking Enrico Battaglin for the win tomorrow.

 

[del1962]

Be interesting to see what Purito can do tomorrow

 

[Dr. Juice]

Has his top speed dropped off or has the bar just been raised by the new generation? There are more riders who are specialising exclusively on sprinting and a much higher level of competition than when Cav was fighting against much more rounded riders like Freire, Hushovd and Boonen for wins.

He didn't fight much against Freire. Freire was a beast after 250-300 km, hence he won so many Milan-San Remo and WC. A bit like Kristoff just with different body size.
Hushovd was never a super sprinter.
Boonen in his sprinting prime was between 2004/5 and 2008, before Cavendish started to win ( Boonen was really fast during that time...2nd or 3rd best sprinter..then he focussed more on allround quality)

Competition like McEwen and Zabel like Cipollini and later Petacchi had to face...Cav didn't have that. I don't think that he is MUCH weaker than Cipollini or Petacchi in their prime. I would put slightly him ahead of the best McEwen.
Cavendish is very very good...he can still face the best sprinters...
TdF 2009...he won against Hushovd and Farrar who really aren't that great sprinting wise....I believe if Petacchi was riding in a Pro Tour team that year he would've snatched 1-2 victories from him.

To sum it up....he is a great sprinter...faster that a McEwen or Zabel in their prime....but a notch behind vintage Cipo and Ale-Jet and a notch behind Kittel nowadays. Did he win that much because he had little competition? Not 100% ...but partly true...the 2nd fastest sprinter during Cavendish reign was a 35-36 year old Petacchi. The others a step below.

 

[MatParker117]

Too many disinformed people about Viviani. The kid has always got the speed, but poor positioning skills. You drive him at the front, you get a winner.
Maybe he's found the right environment. We'll see.

Glad to see Guardini back to real business also. The hype train is starting again!

Now he has Bernie Eisel a key part of HTC's success captaining his train. Along with two great leadout men in Fenn and Swift. He's my favourite for the red jersey at the giro if all goes well.

 

[JRanton]

Now he has Bernie Eisel a key part of HTC's success captaining his train. Along with two great leadout men in Fenn and Swift. He's my favourite for the red jersey at the giro if all goes well.

I'd be very surprised if Fenn rides the Giro. According to Konig, Sky are planning to put both him and Porte on the podium so they're going to need considerable support. I'd be surprised if Viviani gets more than Swift and Eisel. Kennaugh has been part of Cav's lead out before and has good speed so he'd be a good selection given that he can also help in the mounatins.

This would be the right balance I think: Porte, Konig, Seb Henao, Deignan, Kennaugh, Siutsou, Swift, Eisel, Viviani.

 

[Jspear]

Stage 3:
1. Lobato
2. Swift
3. Gilbert