Effects of coronavirus on professional races

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I think the issue is exactly that it's not as deadly as SARS, for example, so that makes it much harder to contain from an epidemiology standpoint. A disease with acute symptoms is less likely to travel under the radar and therefore escape containment. So although 2-3% mortality rate doesn't seem like much (especially to someone who's not in the riskiest part of the population), it's orders of magnitude more than the usual 0.1% mortality rate of the flu. That is all compounded by the novelty of it, meaning that it hasn't been studied enough to be totally understood, although the earlier cases and recoveries are giving a better picture of the medium-term consequences (which so far seem to be like getting over a flu) at least.

The combination of a virus that is very contagious, not deadly enough to be treated as a concern by many people who may be carriers, but deadly enough to be 20-500x more deadly than a regular flu, is a pretty scary thing, especially if your goal is to protect the most vulnerable members of society from death. So although I'm not personally worried about the potential health consequences, I get why it's being treated seriously.
But bearing in mind that the 2-3% is in all likelihood a huge over-estimation, all this logic is out the window.

Cancelling races because two helpers from a team have a fever is ridiculous.
 
But bearing in mind that the 2-3% is in all likelihood a huge over-estimation, all this logic is out the window.

Cancelling races because two helpers from a team have a fever is ridiculous.
I understand why you think 2-3% is a huge over-estimation (under-reporting of positives). However you should also consider that the 2-3% rate as percentage of positives is a big under-estimation because it assumes that all current cases will survive. If you look at the number of closed cases (positives who have either died or are known to have recovered) then it's more like 7-8%. Overall the data is unreliable for many reasons.
 
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80% of those who get this virus s will have only mild symptoms and 5% will have some severe symptoms
I dont think total lock down is an option anywhere
Plus I also dont think total lock down works in containing the virus as we are seeing
An elderly British person has died in one of the Cruse Ship off Japan but who is to say that that person would not have died if they got the flu

It is impossible to live in a risk free world esp if you are elderly

There has to be some balance in our approach

Every rider and team should be tested prior to races and only those with a negative result allowed to participate....say 4/5 days ??

The races should start and end at places of the least risk with crowd kept back at least 8 feet

Riders are only allowed to stop at specific points in the race fronature, food...with control in place

All crashes,etc must be attended only by race officials and dedicated ambulances

Crowds at the road ...ok on fast parts and not allowed on mountains,hills

There is alot the UCI could do
 
I understand why you think 2-3% is a huge over-estimation (under-reporting of positives). However you should also consider that the 2-3% rate as percentage of positives is a big under-estimation because it assumes that all current cases will survive. If you look at the number of closed cases (positives who have either died or are known to have recovered) then it's more like 7-8%. Overall the data is unreliable for many reasons.
Yes, I know, but that proportion is likely to be much smaller than the non-hospitalised one.
 
Gotta say that Hello Dolly's post is 100% in alignment with my views - Will add two things - Some races could be cancelled because of rider availability - For example some UAE, FDJ and Bahrain riders/staff will be out for 14 days and the teams may extend that period which will impact races in March - Second why is Het organisers having public press conferences after what happened yesterday in the UAE tour - It is bewildering.
 
Gotta say that Hello Dolly's post is 100% in alignment with my views - Will add two things - Some races could be cancelled because of rider availability - For example some UAE, FDJ and Bahrain riders/staff will be out for 14 days and the teams may extend that period which will impact races in March - Second why is Het organisers having public press conferences after what happened yesterday in the UAE tour - It is bewildering.
The latest news is that there are no positives so far, none, not even the two UAE staff, who appear to have flu/cold.
 
That's really strange. On the facebook page there is the official statement that two italian staff members tested positive for the coronavirus. How can they say without a positive test? That would be just plain panic.
 
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Whether the corona infection turns out to be real or not, Grischa niermann here says that the entire committee organizing San Remo and Strade is there in the quarantine. If they can't fly home sunday they will definitely be cancelled because of it!
 

Whether the corona infection turns out to be real or not, Grischa niermann here says that the entire committee organizing San Remo and Strade is there in the quarantine. If they can't fly home sunday they will definitely be cancelled because of it!
Vegni is also over there. Maybe the can keep him a bit longer and we get a Zomegnan comeback.;)
 
I've read about three fatal cases. All in their 70s.

I'm no medical expert but wouldn't you expect the average 75 year olds to survive a regular influenza?

If we are talking about very old people in their late 80's and up, it's another matter.
 
Really poor public health methodology to release news that 187 tests from UAE tour came back negative (which is, of course, the CN headline), while still waiting for the remainder of results which they think will be available in just a few hours. Just frickin' wait till you have all the results so folks get an accurate picture of the outcome! The overzealous response to some aspects of COVID-19 is not just the result of the news media, but also government spokespeople in these countries.
 
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Certain the 167 negative results were from the teams who are in one hotel. Teams are in one hotel and the remaining test results will be for journalists and organisers who are in a different hotel - Seems like teams can go home as planned on Sunday - The important aspect is that 167 from the peleton have been tested which is a baseline for the future.
 
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Reactions: Koronin
Really poor public health methodology to release news that 187 tests from UAE tour came back negative (which is, of course, the CN headline), while still waiting for the remainder of results which they think will be available in just a few hours. Just frickin' wait till you have all the results so folks get an accurate picture of the outcome! The overzealous response to some aspects of COVID-19 is not just the result of the news media, but also government spokespeople in these countries.

It seems to me that you are disappointed that they came back negative and the suffering to riders and staff hasn't happened. Just remember that Armstrong passed many tests so the illnesses you crave may still appear.
 
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Certain the 167 negative results were from the teams who are in one hotel. Teams are in one hotel and the remaining test results will be for journalists and organisers who are in a different hotel - Seems like teams can go homa as planned on Sunday - The important aspect is that 167 from the peleton have been tested which is a baseline for the future.

The first results should be the teams as the teams were tested first and the journalists and organizers in the second hotel were tested second. Several teams did seem hopeful they would be released to go home soon. Likely not the worst thing to have the baseline tests of this group for the future either.
 
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It seems to me that you are disappointed that they came back negative and the suffering to riders and staff hasn't happened. Just remember that Armstrong passed many tests so the illnesses you crave may still appear.
Wow, what a weird response. No, what I was trying to say is that you only wait a few more hours to get the rest of the results (as stated in the article) it’s always better to provide complete results rather than partial results. Although, as the posters above suggested, perhaps it’s because they are releasing the rider’s dataset first, which I can understand.
 
I dont think total lock down is an option anywhere
It seems to have worked very well in China, where cases have been increasing at a rate of less than 1% per day for two weeks.

If you look at the number of closed cases (positives who have either died or are known to have recovered) then it's more like 7-8%.
Yes, but that's because there's a lag in the people who are infected but haven't yet recovered. A couple of weeks ago, the fraction of closed cases that ended in death was about 12%. It's been steadily dropping since, as more people recover. A study in China (see below) found that about 80% of cases were mild, 15% severe, and 5% critical. Only people classified as critical died, about half of them. I don't k ow how long after infection in a critical case an individual typically lives before succumbing, but recovery, as technically classified I believe as two negative tests, may take considerable time, even for someone who rather quickly feels fully health.

That said, i agree with you that there may be factors working in the opposite direction, so we can't assume with certainty that the apparent mortality rate is an over-estimate.

I've read about three fatal cases. All in their 70s.

I'm no medical expert but wouldn't you expect the average 75 year olds to survive a regular influenza?

If we are talking about very old people in their late 80's and up, it's another matter.
A study of about 45,000 confirmed cases in China found that people over 80 had a 15% death rate, while those 70-79 had an 8% rate. Younger people had less than an 0.2% rate. But no information on the health problems the older people may have had or not had.

Given that most pro cyclists are in their 20s or 30s, you would think the mortality risk would be very low. OTOH, the combination of high intensity exercise and the attempt to reduce weight to a minimum plays havoc with the immune system, and I wouldn't be surprised if cyclists, more than most other athletes, had more risk.
 
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To provide more perspective - A government list from Hong Kong with nearly 6000 people in forms of quarantine was leaked to me today - It lists addresses and the end of the quarantine period ( no names ) It needs to be stressed that the vast majority of this group will be negative, but may have been exposed to the virus, while some will be positive with no symptoms but are being monitored - It appears that only a few of the positive cases are being listed by Governments which is commonly hose who are in hospital or have mild symptoms - The actual reported positive cases is only the tip of the iceberg, though in saying that, it's apparent that a low percentage suffer any serious symptoms. Anyway it's up to the UCI to show leadership and regularly test riders and staff of teams.
 
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