Effects of coronavirus on professional races

[gerundium]

A positive corona case in a cycling race will be the final blow for upcoming races. This will have put a target on the back of Strade and M-SR. Quite certain now that they will be cancelled.

 

[Joelsim]

Everything will be done on a case by case basis - The problem with this virus is that few suffer any symptoms, so initially you only find out if someone is ill and then you backtrack with tests - There will be clusters/outbreaks in most countries, so whether races continue will be decided on a case by case basis - Finally expect the virus to lose it's strength when the weather warms up in the northern hemisphere.

Doesn’t appear to have affected it in the UAE and Iran.

 

[SafeBet]

It does appear that in China and Italy there were several instances of people testing negative who actually then went on to exhibit symptoms and then testing positive when retested. I don’t know if this has been sorted out now though.

Cycling season may already be over.

I don't recall several instances of people testing negative and then testing positive days later in Italy.

Media reported that the patient zero was a businessman who came back from China, tested negative but then eventually spread the virus and got sick. But it turned out to be false. He retested negative the day after the outbreak occurred.

As for the cycling season, let's not forget the UAE Tour is an RCS race, as are most of the italian races who could be affected. Preventing the virus to spread in the peloton will possibly save the other races, hence taking these measurements now makes a lot of sense.

The general situation in Lombardia is much better than it was a few days ago. I wouldn't rush to say the races will be cancelled. It can still happen, but two masseurs testing positive in the UAE doesn't change much, unless riders who already left the race are positive.

 

[Sestriere]

Doesn’t appear to have affected it in the UAE and Iran.

It was very cold in Iran these last few weeks. The cases into the UAE seem to have been imported. Singapore has had many cases, but most were probably imported too. No cases in India and subsahara Africa might be a sign that the virus isn't very transmittable in warmer, more humid climate. Might.

 

[Pricey_sky]

It was very cold in Iran these last few weeks. The cases into the UAE seem to have been imported. Singapore has had many cases, but most were probably imported too. No cases in India and subsahara Africa might be a sign that the virus isn't very transmittable in warmer, more humid climate. Might.

The way it has spread, this could be our only hope.

We may have to pray for a big spring heatwave across Europe if we are going to get as much cycling as normal in the coming months.

 

[RedheadDane]

Saw a really good point; what about people who have already left the race?
Take a guy like Mørkøv, he's gone straight to the Track World Championship... if he's got it...

 

[SafeBet]

Saw a really good point; what about people who have already left the race?
Take a guy like Mørkøv, he's gone straight to the Track World Championship... if he's got it...

That's the biggest issue to me.
If one of those guys has the virus and joined his team elsewhere...

Riders who left the race before the quarantine: Morkov, Cras, Buchmann, De Bod, Thomson, Scotson, De Plus. Any info on why they left the race?

 

[yaco]

Doesn’t appear to have affected it in the UAE and Iran.

What's happened in the UAE reflects my post - Everything will be done on a case by case basis - The UCI needs to be proactive and test everyone in the peleton and all the support staff ASAP - At least this will give you some control in a difficult environment.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Apparently the 2 Italian staff members who tested positiv are working for the UAE-Emirates team.

 

[Baldinger]

That's the biggest issue to me.
If one of those guys has the virus and joined his team elsewhere...

Riders who left the race before the quarantine: Morkov, Cras, Buchmann, De Bod, Thomson, Scotson, De Plus. Any info on why they left the race?

According to Danish media, he's stock in his hotel room in Berlin for now.

 

[Rollthedice]

We can confirm that all Trek-Segafredo riders and staff at #UAETour have been tested for coronavirus (COVID-19). All the teams remain confined to the race hotel until further notice.

We continue to work with the relevant authorities and await further instructions.

 

[spalco]

The way it has spread, this could be our only hope.

We may have to pray for a big spring heatwave across Europe if we are going to get as much cycling as normal in the coming months.

I know what you mean, but honestly: who gives a *** about cycling if this infection isn't stopped?

 

[Ricco']

That's the biggest issue to me.
If one of those guys has the virus and joined his team elsewhere...

Riders who left the race before the quarantine: Morkov, Cras, Buchmann, De Bod, Thomson, Scotson, De Plus. Any info on why they left the race?

Morkov went to the Track Worlds. Cras, Buchmann and De Bod were due to crashes. The rest I have no info about.

 

[Joelsim]

“They first measure the temperature in the ear, and then scrape the mucous membranes in the nose with a swab. This is then brought to the laboratory for testing, ”Aerts explains about the virus test and confirms that the results will be known during Friday.

 

[tobydawq]

I know what you mean, but honestly: who gives a *** about cycling if this infection isn't stopped?

You make it sound as if it's ebola or the black death we're dealing with here.

For me, cycling races getting cancelled is very probably the worst likely consequence of this spreading.

 

[the asian]

You make it sound as if it's ebola or the black death we're dealing with here.

For me, cycling races getting cancelled is very probably the worst likely consequence of this spreading.

A Mortality rate of around 2 to 3% is nothing to be sniffed of.
The virus spreads quickly and infects a lot of people.
Already around 3000 people have died and there is no vaccine or drug to cure it so far.

You really are underestimating it.

 

[tobydawq]

A Mortality rate of around 2 to 3% is nothing to be sniffed of.
The virus spreads quickly and infects a lot of people.
Already around 3000 people have died and there is vaccine or drug to cure it so far.

You really are underestimating it.

No, it's not that high at all. A lot of people who get infected only experience mild symptoms, which leads them to not seek medical help, which in turn leads them to not show up in the statistics of infected people, thus pumping up the calculated fatality rate.

Hence, everything points to it being nothing more than regular influenza. WHO estimates mortality rate to be below 1%, and it's still only old or ill people who die. People fear a mutation of the virus (I don't know if that's realistic, I'm not a virologist) which potentially could make the problem more serious but that's just guesswork.

But I guess Pricey_Sky is going to show up with a stern finger once again, so we better stop this discourse.

 

[tobydawq]

If it gets to Wuhan levels in Europe, the economic shock will likely be greater than the Euro crisis in the beginning of this decade. I think that's a bit worse than cancelled races (and the fairly low number of fatalities directly caused by the virus).

I'd prefer unemployment to cancellation of races. But it's probably just me who's weird (and doesn't have a steady job situation anyway).

 

[Joelsim]

No, it's not that high at all. A lot of people who get infected only experience mild symptoms, which leads them to not seek medical help, which in turn leads them to not show up in the statistics of infected people, thus pumping up the calculated fatality rate.

Hence, everything points to it being nothing more than regular influenza. WHO estimates mortality rate to be below 1%, and it's still only old or ill people who die. People fear a mutation of the virus (I don't know if that's realistic, I'm not a virologist) which potentially could make the problem more serious but that's just guesswork.

But I guess Pricey_Sky is going to show up with a stern finger once again, so we better stop this discourse.

It does indeed appear to be no worse than 'normal' viruses on it's capacity to harm.

 

[houtdffan]

A Mortality rate of around 2 to 3% is nothing to be sniffed of.
The virus spreads quickly and infects a lot of people.
Already around 3000 people have died and there is no vaccine or drug to cure it so far.

You really are underestimating it.

and more people have died from flu just in the state of Texas this winter than worldwide from Corona.

The death rate may be over stated as many people with only mild symptoms might not seek treatment. Thus, they are not included in the number of cases.

If we cancel races, we may be setting a bad precedent. Any time there is a new virus, there would be pressure to postpone

 

[LaFlorecita]

I'm with toby dawq on this. While the virus seems to spread rather quickly it has nowhere near the mortality rate of ebola, SARS or MERS. It seems quite similar to normal flu with mostly elderly and those with compromised immune system at risk and indeed the actual mortality rate is likely to be even lower than the 2-3% from available data. Of course it makes sense to try to avoid a pandemic but I strongly feel many are overreacting in part due to fearmongering in (social) media.

 

[RedheadDane]

I suppose in some ways continuing with racing - and other similar stuff - could even be important; maintaining a sense of normality. I know it's not quite the same, but even with the - unfortunately very real - threat of terror, races still continue because… we can't give into fear. Take necessary precautions, but living in fear is not going to help.

 

[yaco]

Redhead has hit the nail on the head - You've got to keep a sense of normality - For me the most important issue is for the UCI to show leadership by testing all riders and staff in the peleton - Have no doubt there will be riders in Europe who have been exposed to the virus who show no symptoms or may have even cleared it from their system - At least if you test all you then have a starting point for further investigation - There will some races cancelled as what happened in the UAE tour. Finally sporting events can still occur if you must closed races

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'd prefer unemployment to cancellation of races. But it's probably just me who's weird (and doesn't have a steady job situation anyway).

Obviously. Then you'd be home to watch the races.

 

[skidmark]

I'm with toby dawq on this. While the virus seems to spread rather quickly it has nowhere near the mortality rate of ebola, SARS or MERS. It seems quite similar to normal flu with mostly elderly and those with compromised immune system at risk and indeed the actual mortality rate is likely to be even lower than the 2-3% from available data. Of course it makes sense to try to avoid a pandemic but I strongly feel many are overreacting in part due to fearmongering in (social) media.

I think the issue is exactly that it's not as deadly as SARS, for example, so that makes it much harder to contain from an epidemiology standpoint. A disease with acute symptoms is less likely to travel under the radar and therefore escape containment. So although 2-3% mortality rate doesn't seem like much (especially to someone who's not in the riskiest part of the population), it's orders of magnitude more than the usual 0.1% mortality rate of the flu. That is all compounded by the novelty of it, meaning that it hasn't been studied enough to be totally understood, although the earlier cases and recoveries are giving a better picture of the medium-term consequences (which so far seem to be like getting over a flu) at least.

The combination of a virus that is very contagious, not deadly enough to be treated as a concern by many people who may be carriers, but deadly enough to be 20-500x more deadly than a regular flu, is a pretty scary thing, especially if your goal is to protect the most vulnerable members of society from death. So although I'm not personally worried about the potential health consequences, I get why it's being treated seriously.