Effects of coronavirus on professional races

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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

Apr 16, 2009
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Merckx index said:
It seems to have worked very well in China, where cases have been increasing at a rate of less than 1% per day for two weeks.



Yes, but that's because there's a lag in the people who are infected but haven't yet recovered. A couple of weeks ago, the fraction of closed cases that ended in death was about 12%. It's been steadily dropping since, as more people recover. A study in China (see below) found that about 80% of cases were mild, 15% severe, and 5% critical. Only people classified as critical died, about half of them. I don't k ow how long after infection in a critical case an individual typically lives before succumbing, but recovery, as technically classified I believe as two negative tests, may take considerable time, even for someone who rather quickly feels fully health.

That said, i agree with you that there may be factors working in the opposite direction, so we can't assume with certainty that the apparent mortality rate is an over-estimate.



A study of about 45,000 confirmed cases in China found that people over 80 had a 15% death rate, while those 70-79 had an 8% rate. Younger people had less than an 0.2% rate. But no information on the health problems the older people may have had or not had.

Given that most pro cyclists are in their 20s or 30s, you would think the mortality risk would be very low. OTOH, the combination of high intensity exercise and the attempt to reduce weight to a minimum plays havoc with the immune system, and I wouldn't be surprised if cyclists, more than most other athletes, had more risk.
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And I assume that of those older cases many were related to heart and respiratory problems.
 
Nirvana

Nirvana

Jul 28, 2015
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If there are really some carrying the virus in the peloton they should have kept everyone in quarantine, letting riders go elsewhere only because they are negative at the moment not considering the incubation period could only spread the virus to other races.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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Nirvana said:
If there are really some carrying the virus in the peloton they should have kept everyone in quarantine, letting riders go elsewhere only because they are negative at the moment not considering the incubation period could only spread the virus to other races.
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What had been being said earlier was that the plan seemed to be that they'd be releasing people to go to the country on their passport and self quarantine for the rest of the time period. So not sure how Torres was cleared to go to Berlin. However, I suspect they will be releasing more to go home.
 
M

Merckx index

Jul 27, 2010
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Nirvana said:
If there are really some carrying the virus in the peloton they should have kept everyone in quarantine, letting riders go elsewhere only because they are negative at the moment not considering the incubation period could only spread the virus to other races.
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Most current tests are for the virus itself, so anyone who is negative should not be a risk for spreading the virus.

Some antibody tests are just coming out now.
 
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C

CTQ

Mar 12, 2016
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it's a big mess...... today, everybody was free to leave.........later, 3 teams have to stay (FDJ, Cofidis, Gaspro ), ............later, those were free to leave have been stopped to leave......
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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CTQ said:
it's a big mess...... today, everybody was free to leave.........later, 3 teams have to stay (FDJ, Cofidis, Gaspro ), ............later, those were free to leave have been stopped to leave......
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A big mess is exactly what this is. It appears Torres is the only one who actually did leave.
 
N

Northerner

Jul 15, 2019
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Merckx index said:
Most current tests are for the virus itself, so anyone who is negative should not be a risk for spreading the virus.

Some antibody tests are just coming out now.
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There are many reports of the test, sometimes multiple tests, failing to detect the virus in the early stages, so people who've tested negative and have no symptoms could still be spreading it.

And have they actually tested everyone? Reports I've read mention 167 tests but 600 quarantined.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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Northerner said:
There are many reports of the test, sometimes multiple tests, failing to detect the virus in the early stages, so people who've tested negative and have no symptoms could still be spreading it.

And have they actually tested everyone? Reports I've read mention 167 tests but 600 quarantined.
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The 167 would have been the first batch of results and they were all negative. They also appear to have been the first few teams that were tested. The articles mentioning that number said more test results to come in the next few hours. Reports from Lotto Soudal and Movistar have both said their entire teams were tested.
 
M

Merckx index

Jul 27, 2010
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Northerner said:
There are many reports of the test, sometimes multiple tests, failing to detect the virus in the early stages, so people who've tested negative and have no symptoms could still be spreading it.
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While there are certainly accounts of people who tested negative and later positive, I don't think there's much definitive evidence that people who have the virus test negative for it. People who test negative at one time and positive at another time may have been exposed to the virus at a later time. Even if they showed symptoms when tested negative, it's possible they had another respiratory disease. There could also be flaws in carrying out the procedure in certain countries or labs.

I'm not saying there are no false negatives, but if you test negative, you shouldn't be held back because of a small chance you're positive. If you have suggestive symptoms, test again, but someone with no symptoms who initially tests negative should not be considered at risk. By that logic, we would have to quarantine everyone.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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CTQ said:
still a mess :
https://twitter.com/x/status/1233924240870649856
View: https://twitter.com/SophieSmith86/status/1233924240870649856?s=20


https://twitter.com/x/status/1233925385605255169
View: https://twitter.com/SophieSmith86/status/1233925385605255169?s=20
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It appears no one knows what is going on. I know some teams have said their teams were negative.

There was some report (don't remember where, but think it was in a Spanish publication) that said they (guessing officials) were wanting to evacuate some of the teams that had all negative test results. In the same article it also said that protocol was that those who were evacuated had to go to the country of where their passport is from. Yes, it appears to be a complete mess.
 
C

CTQ

Mar 12, 2016
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Koronin said:
It appears no one knows what is going on. I know some teams have said their teams were negative.

There was some report (don't remember where, but think it was in a Spanish publication) that said they (guessing officials) were wanting to evacuate some of the teams that had all negative test results. In the same article it also said that protocol was that those who were evacuated had to go to the country of where their passport is from. Yes, it appears to be a complete mess.
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a bit weird that they have to go where their passport is from.... a guy like Amador had to go back to Costa Rica when he supposed to race Paris-Nice. He must be not the only guy with the same problem. and official news for Sophie Smith.https://twitter.com/SophieSmith86/status/1233932085787840512?s=20
 
HelloDolly

HelloDolly

Mar 13, 2015
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"It seems to have worked very well in China, where cases have been increasing at a rate of less than 1% per day for two weeks. "

The virus is in almost every country in the world...so no total lock down hasn't worked

Also people in UK who have not been away from home have the virus...so many people must be asymptomatic ..hence the death total percentage I'd say is even lower ,not ot mention the spread of the virus greater

Trying to maintain a virus by shutting up shop is not the answer esp when there is no good intelligence on the incubation period of the virus

Better to take all the ill or old people and isolate them than stop the world going about its business
 
C

CTQ

Mar 12, 2016
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M

Merckx index

Jul 27, 2010
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HelloDolly said:
The virus is in almost every country in the world...so no total lock down hasn't worked
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The point is that China has mostly stopped the spread in that country, at least of new confirmed cases. The virus got to other parts of the world before China instituted its restrictions. You can't argue that China's lockdown didn't prevent the spread to other parts of the world, because the lockdown came too late for that. But it didn't come too late to stop the spread within that country.

My point is that if other countries followed suit--they won't, it's too difficult for democracies to compel these restrictions on its citizens--the spread could be more or less stopped now.

HelloDolly said:
Trying to maintain a virus by shutting up shop is not the answer esp when there is no good intelligence on the incubation period of the virus
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There's considerable information on the incubation period. In the absence of a vaccine, social distancing of some form is inevitable.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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CTQ said:
a bit weird that they have to go where their passport is from.... a guy like Amador had to go back to Costa Rica when he supposed to race Paris-Nice. He must be not the only guy with the same problem. and official news for Sophie Smith.https://twitter.com/SophieSmith86/status/1233932085787840512?s=20
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And Adam Yates would have to go back to Australia. I suspect he was supposed to be racing somewhere else as well. I'm sure there are others as well.

CTQ said:
they are re-testing those who haven't left
https://twitter.com/x/status/1233931494533541890
View: https://twitter.com/jim_c_1985/status/1233931494533541890?s=20
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Yet no one seems to know how many have already left. Or necessarily who has already left.
 
Y

yaco

Jun 20, 2015
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It seems like the UAE health authorities are retesting most samples - Merckx Index is correct when they state those who test negative should be allowed to leave - Gets back to my earlier post that teams have to regularly test all riders and staff - P/N should be fine if they limit limit people at the start and finish and along the route.
 
RedheadDane

RedheadDane

May 5, 2010
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Koronin said:
And Adam Yates would have to go back to Australia.
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? I'm pretty sure Adam Yates still holds a British passport.
Someone who might have a serious problem is Archbold who - according to PCS, but non-confirmed - is supposed to do Samyn Tuesday.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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RedheadDane said:
? I'm pretty sure Adam Yates still holds a British passport.
Someone who might have a serious problem is Archbold who - according to PCS, but non-confirmed - is supposed to do Samyn Tuesday.
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You're right. He has a British passport. Sorry.
 
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