It seems to have worked very well in China, where cases have been increasing at a rate of less than 1% per day for two weeks.
Yes, but that's because there's a lag in the people who are infected but haven't yet recovered. A couple of weeks ago, the fraction of closed cases that ended in death was about 12%. It's been steadily dropping since, as more people recover. A study in China (see below) found that about 80% of cases were mild, 15% severe, and 5% critical. Only people classified as critical died, about half of them. I don't k ow how long after infection in a critical case an individual typically lives before succumbing, but recovery, as technically classified I believe as two negative tests, may take considerable time, even for someone who rather quickly feels fully health.
That said, i agree with you that there may be factors working in the opposite direction, so we can't assume with certainty that the apparent mortality rate is an over-estimate.
A study of about 45,000 confirmed cases in China found that people over 80 had a 15% death rate, while those 70-79 had an 8% rate. Younger people had less than an 0.2% rate. But no information on the health problems the older people may have had or not had.
Given that most pro cyclists are in their 20s or 30s, you would think the mortality risk would be very low. OTOH, the combination of high intensity exercise and the attempt to reduce weight to a minimum plays havoc with the immune system, and I wouldn't be surprised if cyclists, more than most other athletes, had more risk.
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram