Evans can win Le Tour!

[Havetts]

Though in Evans' defence, he rode the tour that year and Basso did not.

 

[theyoungest]

The case has already been argued that it was during Basso's first year back and he certainly wasn't anywhere near his best.

"Not anywhere near his best"... what kind of superhuman being do you consider Basso to be? He did very well in the Vuelta, not much separated the heads of state there, and he certainly was one of them. Also, he already had a GT in his legs since his return, where he got 4th. He probably was a little stronger in the Giro last year, but how are we to know, when the opposition was simply weaker than in the Vuelta? I think he's come to be overrated after his Giro win in a weak field.

 

[Galic Ho]

So funny.
You could substitute Cadel's name into this little rant and get a near perfect analysis of Evan's GT history.
There is just no Oz Objectiveness when it comes to Cuddles.



Snap! Seems Mr Evans intends to adopt the same approach.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2011...-his-eggs-in-the-tour-de-france-basket_157303

Could be a lean year in those CQ rankings.

Perhaps you forget what I've said about most younger riders. Until they've proven they can win a big event against the main opposition, it is unfair to talk them up. But the Dutch do it with Gesink. The Belgium with Van den Broucke. In all likeliness Evans won't win. All the big cards fall with Schleck. He will be the hands on favourite. But I won't talk him up as a shoe in. Nothing personal, but I don't give out Kudos until you take them. Make no mistake, there will be a thread about Gesink potentially winning in later months.

But we all know the pressure got to Evans in 2008 as favourite. Schleck has a new team and the no.1 climbing domestique from Saxo is gone. No more Sorenson. That makes breaking all the other teams hard. Fuglsang improved last year but not enough to do that role day in, day out. Heck, the next best guy for that role joined Saxo. If Menchov joins Riis, he'd be the favourite IMO because of that. We have never seen Andy Schleck race a GC favourite other than Contador. Last year in the ToC, he was useless in the hills. I'm simply saying there is too much doubt and unknowns to say he has it in the bag. AS doesn't possess an LA mentality. If he did, he'd have won a GT by now.

Which brings this all back to mental games. Most here know Evans mentally has improved leaps and bounds. The former Evans GC psyche is pretty much erased. I think he's learnt. I don't think AS has had to really learn. He's still very young. Plenty of time for that. Last year this forum saw a change in perspective and a new found liking by some of Evans. Yes, he's made a lot of excuses, but for the most part the whining stopped in 2010. AS really cranked it up another notch. Andy should simply copy LA's mental look from his winning period. Cadel has a chance if he plays it smart and holds on to the leaders going into the final week, as we all have seen he can be up there at the end. Evans needs to put himself up there but not make a move until the last week. Cadel cannot afford to take a Yellow jersey early on. BMC cannot handle it. Let Leopard do it and then watch as other GC teams try and break them, Saxo (if they get Dennis), Euskatel and whoever else wants a crack at the crown. What I'm really saying is that AC's absence creates a gulf. Whole dynamic changes and mission impossible becomes mission probable. A smart calculated ride by Menchov, Samu or Evans, heck even Basso if he's super efficient could robe AS. That's all I'm saying. Besides, it'd make a boring looking race interesting.

 

[Galic Ho]

All these hypotheticals miss an important point. To win the TdF in any year likely involves winning 2 or 3 of the hardest stages. Being a good GT rider, climbing in the front group, but not winning stages gives you consistent minor placings, and nothing more.

Cadel Evans has never really been able to win stages. That's why he has never really been a big win threat in the tour, and has spent minimal time in yellow. This means that he can't win the tour without outrageous luck (c.f. Oscar Pereiro).

Wrong. Contador won nothing last year, but was efficient. Valverde won nothing in the 2009 Vuelta but took home GC honours. Every GT is different. Winning a stage and winning overall are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but can be. Depends on how it all pans out. If it's on the cards, you get a win. If not and you don't need to win, you don't waste the energy. Evans won the hardest stage in GT in decade at the Giro last year. Was one of the best stages I've ever seen. Basso and Nibali both crashed. AS I said, every GT has a flow to it. That fluctuates rapidly. Don't make the mistake of assuming if you don't win a major mountain stage you cannot win overall. Lemond was outshone by Fignon in 89 in the hills. Guess who won by 8 seconds by playing his strengths?

 

[Galic Ho]

Though I kinda agree, you hardly see him attack - though him opening on Verbier 2009 TdF was cool too see. Only time I can remember (outside the classics) see him attacking was the World Championships 2009, which was a real nice victory.

Sastre did a 39'30" ascent of the Alpe. Sastre had something saved for that day. Note nobody else went with him. That was planned and you cannot climb faster than your body lets you. Menchov, Vande Velde, Valverde all were with Evans. Anything else I can say is best left for the Clinic. The rest all came in 2 minutes down. Carlos has never performed like that since, except in the 2009 Giro, though in 2006 he was rather strong. You do the math and fill in the blanks.

 

[Galic Ho]

"Not anywhere near his best"... what kind of superhuman being do you consider Basso to be? He did very well in the Vuelta, not much separated the heads of state there, and he certainly was one of them. Also, he already had a GT in his legs since his return, where he got 4th. He probably was a little stronger in the Giro last year, but how are we to know, when the opposition was simply weaker than in the Vuelta? I think he's come to be overrated after his Giro win in a weak field.

He's not over rated. I just think Evans, Samu and Menchov are slightly stronger when on their own. I'll take Ivan any day of the week over Nibali.

 

[Havetts]

Menchov tried at the base but blew himself up. I dont know, either Evans couldnt follow or he thought mhm Sastre will never be able to get around 2 min 20, I'll be safe and realizing his mistake a few kilometres from the top when he started riding abit.

Either its not able to follow or not having the right strategy / thought of what to do. Though I think if the Schleck brothers were on another team, they wouldnt have let go Sastre. But I dont think Im telling somethign new here, or am I ?

 

[Galic Ho]

In Basso's defense, he had spent 2 years away from competition. Granted the Vuelta was near the end of the season of his first year back but I would think that he would still be building back to his pre-suspension form (less the PED's) all during the first year back.

As stated earlier unless Evans can regain his prowess versus the clock I can't see him gaining any advantage on Basso. They are similar climbers, diesel-like, except Basso's diesel has more horsepower. Evans still should be up there in the fight for the podium but I can't see him being able to stay with Schlecklet and Basso when the tempo increases in the mountains.

I disagree. Up to 10% gradient, I think Evans is a bit better. Over that Basso has the edge. How many climbs does the Tour introduce that show that kind of incline or greater? I know the Giro last year had quite a few in the last week, and on the Zoncolan Ivan's pedigree came up trumps. Evans just needs to stay fresh this year and come in with lots of energy and a game plan, keep his calm when it changes and hope for the best. Remove Evans sickness at last years Giro and Ivan wouldn't have had it so easy. Evans is strategically in a better position because people expect more from Ivan given his Giro win and Liquigas reputation forged from said Giro. That's a detriment and might affect team morale if they cannot execute and utilise to it's maximum in France.

 

[theyoungest]

Perhaps you forget what I've said about most younger riders. Until they've proven they can win a big event against the main opposition, it is unfair to talk them up. But the Dutch do it with Gesink. The Belgium with Van den Broucke. In all likeliness Evans won't win. All the big cards fall with Schleck. He will be the hands on favourite. But I won't talk him up as a shoe in. Nothing personal, but I don't give out Kudos until you take them. Make no mistake, there will be a thread about Gesink potentially winning in later months.

Of course not. It wouldn't make sense, just like with anyone except Andy Schleck. Something will have to go horribly wrong for him not to win the Tour 2011.

But we all know the pressure got to Evans in 2008 as favourite. Schleck has a new team and the no.1 climbing domestique from Saxo is gone. No more Sorenson. That makes breaking all the other teams hard. Fuglsang improved last year but not enough to do that role day in, day out.

A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Fuglsang, Zaugg, Monfort, Gerdemann... that's probably the strongest climbing team in this year's Tour, and certainly much stronger than what Evans has at his disposal.

Heck, the next best guy for that role joined Saxo. If Menchov joins Riis, he'd be the favourite IMO because of that. We have never seen Andy Schleck race a GC favourite other than Contador. Last year in the ToC, he was useless in the hills. I'm simply saying there is too much doubt and unknowns to say he has it in the bag. AS doesn't possess an LA mentality. If he did, he'd have won a GT by now.

What does the ToC have to do with anything? Schleck underperforms in any race that he doesn't care for, that much should be clear by now.

Which brings this all back to mental games. Most here know Evans mentally has improved leaps and bounds. The former Evans GC psyche is pretty much erased. I think he's learnt. I don't think AS has had to really learn. He's still very young. Plenty of time for that. Last year this forum saw a change in perspective and a new found liking by some of Evans. Yes, he's made a lot of excuses, but for the most part the whining stopped in 2010. AS really cranked it up another notch. Andy should simply copy LA's mental look from his winning period.

If I had to choose who I think is mentally stronger, I'd say Andy. He just seems to be more of a natural winner than Evans. Some have it, some don't.

Cadel has a chance if he plays it smart and holds on to the leaders going into the final week, as we all have seen he can be up there at the end. Evans needs to put himself up there but not make a move until the last week. Cadel cannot afford to take a Yellow jersey early on. BMC cannot handle it.

What's the difference with any other GT Evans has ever done? It's always this way. And he can never finish it off.

 

[Galic Ho]

basso's 2009 was the year of purgatory.it's wrong saying that basso in 2009 was at his maximum,he had served almost 3 years of suspension.

and yes you're right.gesink was impressive there,he deserved at least the podium,one of the few who dared to attack.

Ivan was racing within 2 years of his initial ban, actually he came back early. Using that logic one could argue Valverde next year will return with nobody expecting anything from him. Not true, I think he'll win quite a lot. All the guys in front of Ivan in the 09 Vuelta were better opposition than the 2010 Giro.

 

[Havetts]

2010 Giro hardly had any competition, arguably the guy who was second strongest would be Nibali. Never had the feeling that Scarponi was a huge threat to Basso, only Evans was the real contender seeing Nibali would never attack Basso.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Perhaps you forget what I've said about most younger riders. Until they've proven they can win a big event against the main opposition, it is unfair to talk them up. But the Dutch do it with Gesink. The Belgium with Van den Broucke. In all likeliness Evans won't win. All the big cards fall with Schleck. He will be the hands on favourite. But I won't talk him up as a shoe in. Nothing personal, but I don't give out Kudos until you take them. Make no mistake, there will be a thread about Gesink potentially winning in later months.

You do realize that when most of the Dutch here were given their guesstimation of how Gesink would do, he probably outperformed most of the stated expectations by the regulars here.

Sure, he gets mentioned a bit for obvious reasons. But to say that "the Dutch" talk 'em up when he finishes higher than most predictions (if he can stay on his bike), give me a break.

A thread about Gesink winning? And widely supported by the Dutch regulars here? It would be totally out of character. Most of us would be saying how silly that expectation would be.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

We have never seen Andy Schleck race a GC favourite other than Contador.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ajeAr5Zk1c

 

[Havetts]

I as a dutch person can only dream of him winning, but being realistic I doubt this year will be the win of the TdF. Though I'm hundred percent sure he's a real contestor for the podium, I wonder how well he would have fared this year without Menchov, riding his own race instead of helping out.

Though I cant say Im a regular here, so I'll have to see if the thread even comes up . But if it does I'll sure be here to cheer for Robert .

 

[The Hitch]

Evans won the hardest stage in GT in decade at the Giro last year.

Say what?

It wasnt even the hardest stage of that Gt, or in the top 3 hardest stages of that gt, yet alone any gt in a decade.

He's not over rated. I just think Evans, Samu and Menchov are slightly stronger when on their own. I'll take Ivan any day of the week over Nibali.

If your going to accuse Sastre, who has absolutely no ties to doping whatsoever, of doping, you should look more closely at Evans.

 

[richwagmn]

Not sure the point of this post. Of course Cadel can win. He seems to be maturing as a rider and does have a pretty decent team. AS is probably the favorite but we'll have to see just how good his TTing really is. I'm not convinced of his ability here yet.

 

[Galic Ho]

Of course not. It wouldn't make sense, just like with anyone except Andy Schleck. Something will have to go horribly wrong for him not to win the Tour 2011.

A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Fuglsang, Zaugg, Monfort, Gerdemann... that's probably the strongest climbing team in this year's Tour, and certainly much stronger than what Evans has at his disposal.

You're going to through Mr Clean Linus in there? Seriously? Unless he hops back on the wonder sauce, he isn't anything special climbing wise, but he is useful for grabbing drinks. The two major domestiques who put out the strongest peloton climbing wattage in 2010 are both at Saxo. Noval and Sorenson. Nobody climbed harder than the periods they set pace. Those periods saw tons of riders crack. 20 became 3 or 4 very quickly. Only Andy Schleck could handle that pace of all the 2011 definite GC showers.
Fuglsang isn't there yet and Leopard will try and put both Schleck's on the podium, meaning Franck really is not a super domestique, he's a GC chance as well. That places them at great risk. Andy has to show when Franck is present he is prepared to completely ignore him and go full throttle. Franck IMO held him back in 2009. Last year he fell off so that doesn't mean Andy has evolved. But randomness may make that decision for him if Franck loses time early on.

What does the ToC have to do with anything? Schleck underperforms in any race that he doesn't care for, that much should be clear by now.

Nothing other than to highlight a Clinic perspective. LA had the same disease and most people know why. Ignore it, just me having a laugh. Personally I cannot understand how he is next to uselss half the year and AC isn't but he can improve beyond margin overnight and avoid all major questioning.

If I had to choose who I think is mentally stronger, I'd say Andy. He just seems to be more of a natural winner than Evans. Some have it, some don't.

Which is another reason why I placed the ToC point. It's about mental prep. LA had the winning mentality, he didn't need to perform. AC has it as well, but performs at every race. He tries to win and do well regardless. Practical application is different but the desire to win is there. Andy? My point exactly! What has he won apart from LBL. He gets beaten by Contador in successive years and whines about it worse each year. I don't know he does have his head together. As Angliru said a few pages back, he has the potential but I can see chinks in the armour that could manifest and see him blow his opportunity.

What's the difference with any other GT Evans has ever done? It's always this way. And he can never finish it off.

It's only a hypothetical. People aren't fans of Gerdemann because they know he'll nad a random win, Chavanel or Cunego for that matter. But they cheer anyway and hope. Races allow many opportunities. Are you suggesting Evans racing last year did not see an improvement for the better psychologically? I think his head was better screwed on and that should help his chances this year. Big thing is AC won't be there so he has a chance.

 

[Galic Ho]

Say what?

It wasnt even the hardest stage of that Gt, or in the top 3 hardest stages of that gt, yet alone any gt in a decade.

It looked pretty hard. If it wasn't why didn't Nibali and Basso catch up then. Funny you say this now, when last May it was being spoken of as being hard. It is my perspective. I haven't watched every stage in every GT in the last decade. I'd say Floyd's win in 2006 or Rasmussens last stage in the 2007 Tour are probably the hardest win's I've ever seen. But they were both blatant roid fueled events.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

2010 Giro hardly had any competition, arguably the guy who was second strongest would be Nibali. Never had the feeling that Scarponi was a huge threat to Basso, only Evans was the real contender seeing Nibali would never attack Basso.

In the end, it was about form. The Giro wasn't that weak in terms of competition. Look at some of the names that rode it, it wasn't that weak a field. We're not talking like 2004, where Dario Cioni made the top 5 and Bradley McGee the top 10, here.

The infamous L'Aquila breakaway changed things enormously, because that was a super-tough race that had broken things up enormously in wind, rain, sleet and mud in the first week.

Cadel Evans, like Vino, had the form in the first week. We saw Evans chasing people down solo after crashes in early stages, Vino getting in the maglia rosa and of course, the incredible stage in the mud. But with Vino having won the Giro del Trentino and then LBL, and Evans having won Flèche in the middle of a strong Ardennes campaign, both of them were unable to hold top form for long enough (and if they had done it would have been super-suspicious) with all the toughest mountains in the Giro being back-loaded (stages 8, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20 were the main mountain stages) they lost too much time in those late stages. Carlos Sastre turned up with the Giro as his focus, but too little warmup racing meant he was not in the right kind of form to compete in such a gruelling race (not to mention that the conditions in the first week were really not conducive to him). The crashes and the chaos robbed us of some things that would have been greatly exciting to watch - Pozzovivo's GC chances were ruined, he got injured, got ill and pulled out before we even got to the high mountains, the one blot on a great season for him. Similarly, Rigoberto Urán had made noises about targeting the King of the Mountains, but obviously spent most of week 3 as a personal minder for David Arroyo. Christian Vande Velde and Marzio Bruseghin both crashed out of the race on stage 3 - that's a guy who's been top 5 at the Tour and a guy who's podiumed the Giro right there.

After all that, all it took was one of the ex-champions on show to underperform and the race would look fairly thin on the ground.

 

[Francois the Postman]

I as a dutch person can only dream of him winning, but being realistic I doubt this year will be the win of the TdF. Though I'm hundred percent sure he's a real contestor for the podium, I wonder how well he would have fared this year without Menchov, riding his own race instead of helping out.

Though I cant say Im a regular here, so I'll have to see if the thread even comes up . But if it does I'll sure be here to cheer for Robert .

Aye, been a while since we had some orange to cheer about at the sharp(ish) end of the TdF. I am already chuffed we have a genuine "kopman" again. Although I wished he had another year to mature in the shadow of Menchov under his belt before getting the top seat.

 

[Galic Ho]

You do realize that when most of the Dutch here were given their guesstimation of how Gesink would do, he probably outperformed most of the stated expectations by the regulars here.

Sure, he gets mentioned a bit for obvious reasons. But to say that "the Dutch" talk 'em up when he finishes higher than most predictions (if he can stay on his bike), give me a break.

A thread about Gesink winning? And widely supported by the Dutch regulars here? It would be totally out of character. Most of us would be saying how silly that expectation would be.

Yeah he did get mentioned, but as you say for obvious reasons. I was talking about the Dutch versions of ACF94, who whilst not as dramatic as ACF94, did expect him to do some major destroying. I just hoped he'd stay on his bike so he could get some experience for later. Someone will start a thread about him, though the talk won't be as vivid as an Evans thread, but there will be some high expectations. I thought he did really well personally last year. Was more impressed by the Belgian heir to Cadels Lotto throne myself. He was very impressive. Didn't think he could crack the top 10, let alone 5th.

I remember one or two of the Dutch declaring Gesink would have won the Vuelta if he didn't put a hole in his leg. I also remember they didn't like me saying that wouldn't have mattered (for various irrelevant reasons), that he shouldn't be stigmatised with that kind of nonesense against guys like Valverde, Samu, Basso and Evans who did come in front of him and who all have shown similar form previously, given his young age. It's the same reason why I don't like hearing Aussies carry on about the Meyer boys and Bobridge. Any good performane deserves praise, but doesn't make them a shoe in for something yet to be shown in a race. When it does however happen, praise should be given where it is due.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It looked pretty hard. If it wasn't why didn't Nibali and Basso catch up then. Funny you say this now, when last May it was being spoken of as being hard. It is my perspective. I haven't watched every stage in every GT in the last decade. I'd say Floyd's win in 2006 or Rasmussens last stage in the 2007 Tour are probably the hardest win's I've ever seen. But they were both blatant roid fueled events.

It's difficult to say. The stage that day was incredible, but the stage itself wasn't an ESPECIALLY hard one - but the weather and, most importantly, the way the stage was raced, made it that way. When you say "Why didn't Nibali and Basso catch up"... a group of two vs. a group of between two and five (Cadel and Vino being the only constants) in the same conditions, with the first group having the power of better TTs and more power... I would expect Nibali and Basso to not catch up unless they were waited for. Certainly at first at least Vino and Garzelli wanted to wait, but the stage-hunting Milram riders pushed the pace on.

It was a very tough stage, and one of the best we've seen in years. The problem was just how good a Giro it was; stage 19 was probably even better racing for my money, but then the fact that it was the race on the line probably made it better; the Montalcino stage would definitely have been better as a stand-alone event than the Mortirolo stage.

Either way, I disagree that it's the toughest GT stage of the last decade. Angliru 2002 trumps them all.

 

[The Hitch]

2010 Giro hardly had any competition, arguably the guy who was second strongest would be Nibali. Never had the feeling that Scarponi was a huge threat to Basso, only Evans was the real contender seeing Nibali would never attack Basso.

Scarponi lost 2 minutes 36 in the ttt. He lost 20 seconds in Holland when like EVans he had no team and Basso had liqui. This put him almost 3 minutes back. He gained 1 minute back in Moltacino.

This put him 2 minutes back on Basso through no fault of his own going into the mountains.

Of course hes no threat. Evans 2009 Tour chances were also over after losing minutes in a ttt.

In the mountains though, except the 1.20 he lost on Zoncolan he matched Basso all the way. Took 6 seconds on Plats de Corones even. Dont forget that the day before Zoncolan he and Evans had killed themselves delivering Basso to the line, at which point Ivan nipped in front and took a 4 second bonus and was fresh for the Zonc.

Of course Scarponi was no threat. Basso had a 2 minute head start and he had a super team working for him. How can Scarponi be a threat under such circumstances

 

[Francois the Postman]

I was talking about the Dutch versions of ACF94, who whilst not as dramatic as ACF94, did expect him to do some major destroying.

Who are? I am struggling to remember anyone even vaguely Dutch to talk about Gesink destroying anything during the TdF.

 

[Galic Ho]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ajeAr5Zk1c

That isn't even the steepest side of the Zoncolan.

We don't get the Giro in Australia, well at least in 2007 we didn't. My net gets capped here. Four years ago I doubt I'd have been able to get a live stream of the Giro for 3 weeks and cope with the data usage not going over quota. I'm not saying AS is crap, he's very, very good. I'm just saying there are some unknowns that might not go to his favour. I wonder how Leopard would cope if Spartacus had a major isse?