Evans's change of approach

[on3m@n@rmy]

Having a lighter schedule won't transform Evans into one of the best climbers. I'll eat my own cycling shirts if he even podiumns this course. 5th or 6th.

True. One thing about him, he does not spin (or handle acclerations) well. But if he replaces race days with workouts designed to increase his ability to spin at higher rpm... well, maybe something bigger could happen. They used to say the same about Ullrich, but that never happened.

 

[biopass]

I said it before and ill say it again. All Evans needs to do is losing a few kilos, then no one will be able drop him on the mountains.

One thing people seem to forget when they talk about the misfortunes of Evans is that he finished only 23 seconds behind Contador last time the Tour was mountainious, and that was back in 2007. With the right preparation he definately has a chance to win the tour.

 

[veganrob]

While Cadel is a great rider, is it possible he may even lack confidence in himself. How many times has one watched a race and screamed for him to attack. Just do something other than follow the leaders.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

While Cadel is a great rider, is it possible he may even lack confidence in himself. How many times has one watched a race and screamed for him to attack. Just do something other than follow the leaders.

I dont know about the confidence thing, but I kind of agree with the attacking/following thing. Which is why I think it would benefit him if he could learn to spin a little better. When you're already bogged down in a gear and the other go it's harder to match them.

 

[veganrob]

I dont know about the confidence thing, but I kind of agree with the attacking/following thing. Which is why I think it would benefit him if he could learn to spin a little better. When you're already bogged down in a gear and the other go it's harder to match them.

May be right about him having confidence. How about him not having the killer instinct then? You got to be an assassin in the mountains.

 

[kurtinsc]

cadel is great on the short stuff, should have concentrated on classics way back imo. But like I said the Giro was lacking real climbers (other then basso and scarponi), so the 2nd on Zoncolan is not something that will change my mind.

And yes I think Sanchez and Gesink (also guys like anton... not sure why you mentioned nibali, i didnt) are better climbers then evans, both of them were owning him at the vuelta 09'. Evans is always amongst it sure, but he has never been good enough. I hardly believe he will improve this year, while still young talents like gesink and co will not improve.

I didn't argue he wasn't a top 5 climber in a race, but top 5 climber doesn't cut, especially this year with young natural climbers coming through, and such mountainous courses.

I am so very confident evans wont come close to top podium at the tour this year. Again, his best chance has come and gone.

Going to the Vuelta in 2009... other then Evans puncturing I'm not sure it's accurate to say Sanchez outclimbed him. Evan's biggest issue in my opinion is a lack of pacing. For example, on the Zoncolan, he held onto Basso as long as he could. He fought incredibly hard... then he just bonked. It seemed clear to me at the time that if he had backed off a bit sooner, he probably would have saved 30 more seconds by avoiding the total collapse... but that's not the kind of rider he is... he just kept fighting until he was gassed.

Similarly, on the Sierra Nevada stage where he punctured, he killed himself trying to get back... then bonked again and was passed by Sanchez and Rodriguez. He was a better climber then both on that stage physically... but due to the puncture and his mental decision not to try to pace himself back, he lost a lot of time.

Other then that one stage... his climbing was pretty much on par with Sanchez and Gesink. I'm not sure where you get that they performed better on the climbs. Let's not forget... if he doesn't puncture and finishes with the Basso/Gesink/Valverde group on the Sierra Nevada, he finishes ahead of Sammy Sanchez despite losing 15 seconds to Sanchez over the course of the time trials in that race.

 

[Ferminal]

I said it before and ill say it again. All Evans needs to do is losing a few kilos, then no one will be able drop him on the mountains.

One thing people seem to forget when they talk about the misfortunes of Evans is that he finished only 23 seconds behind Contador last time the Tour was mountainious, and that was back in 2007. With the right preparation he definately has a chance to win the tour.

That doesn't quite tell the whole story.

Contador punctured on the climb to Tignes early in the race, losing about 30s on Evans.

Contador took minutes off Evans in the Pyrenees, but that was the Chicken and Bertie show. Without Ras we don't know what Contador would have done. Evans was worked over by them and Soler rather nicely. Overall he was still the 3rd best climber in the race (Soler and Leipheimer picked it up well in 3rd week after being off the pace in the Alps).

Overall Evans was very strong in 2007. If he took that kind of form to the 2011 TdF he might podium, but would still lose minutes in total to "Contador" (in 2011 it's probably "Schleck") over the three toughest MTFs - Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille and Alpe D'Huez. 2007 his TT was great, but there isn't enough long flat ITT miles this year (and like others I think his TTing has fallen away a bit).

I think tactically Evans is better than 2007, but I doubt his climbing and TTing has improved.

No one really knows how the race dynamic will play out, Wiggins finished 4th in 2009, the ridiculous/unexpected can happen if the racing goes a certain way.

 

[kurtinsc]

May be right about him having confidence. How about him not having the killer instinct then? You got to be an assassin in the mountains.

I think his issue has more to do with fighting too hard/panicing.

When Evans is stronger, he seems to attack to take the win fairly well. I don't think he lacks a killer instinct. But he doesn't know when to let a stronger rider go. Zoncolan in last year's Giro is typical for him as other riders started tiring, they started riding their own pace and let Basso go ahead... but not Evans. He kept hanging on for dear life until his body was completely depleted... then bonked and lost nearly all he had gained on Scarponi in the process. He looked like he could barely turn the pedals when he finished.

If he could have remained calm and ridden his own race, he probably could have gotten 20-30 more seconds on that climb... but by hanging tough until he bonked he hurt himself in the overall. Similarly when he had the flat on the Sierra Nevada in the Vuelta, he went all out trying to catch up and bonked again, costing himself time as well.

Evans is an incredibly gutty rider. But I'm not sure he's got a good grasp of strategy in some cases. He's so focused on keeping pace that he can't recognize when to limit his losses and live to fight another day rather then just kill himself trying to keep up with the leaders. I think some the cases where he loses huge time after riding with leaders are similar... mentally once he loses contact with the leaders he has trouble limiting losses. He's great while his endurance lasts... but he bonks hard.

 

[biopass]

Overall Evans was very strong in 2007. If he took that kind of form to the 2011 TdF he might podium, but would still lose minutes in total to "Contador" (in 2011 it's probably "Schleck") over the three toughest MTFs - Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille and Alpe D'Huez.

If Frank does the usual and crash out of the race, then yeah, i would agree that baby Schleck will attack. If not, baby Schleck wont set a pace that cracks his brother. If everything goes according to Schlecks (they wanna podium both) i dont see Evans lose minutes in total to the Schleck brothers. Given he made his prepation right and is not fatigued in the final week.

 

[Angliru]

I said it before and ill say it again. All Evans needs to do is losing a few kilos, then no one will be able drop him on the mountains.

One thing people seem to forget when they talk about the misfortunes of Evans is that he finished only 23 seconds behind Contador last time the Tour was mountainious, and that was back in 2007. With the right preparation he definately has a chance to win the tour.

Contador was a young buck finding his way in the grand tours at that point. He's improved in everyway since then while Evans, it could be argued has stagnated in terms of his Tour performances. Additionally, his performances versus the clock have deteriorated over the past couple of years while Contaor's has improved for the most part, with the exception of his perfomance in the final ITT at last year's Tour. I really don't see Evans having a chance. The young guns are nipping at his heels or have already passed him. The best he can hope for is breaking the top 5.

 

[The Hitch]

I think about the last stage before Evans form started cracking in the Giro last year was the Zoncolan.... maybe the climbing time trial the stage after.

Evans beat Scarponi by 25 seconds in the time trial and 12 seconds on Zoncolan (after a massive bonk trying to keep with Basso instead of riding his own race). Of the meaningful stages in the Giro that year, did Scarponi gain time on Evans anywhere other then Aprica when the three Italians worked together to isolate and crack Evans after his form was already heading south?


Scarponi is an excellent climber. I didn't forget about him. But he only climbed better then Evans on one stage in the race last year... one toward the very end after Evans had been trying to hold top form since April. Climbing better in ONE stage with two others helping after Evans was trying to hold peak form for over a month does make Scarponi a better climber in my opinion.

Hang on. You said

I think he was the 2nd best climber in that race.

That race

Now you change that to

Evans was trying to hold peak form for over a month does make Scarponi a better climber in my opinion.

Whether Evans is better than Scarponi overall is another matter. I agree that evans is a better climber overall.

But when you introduce the debate as to who was better in the Giro, then the fact that Evans did a lot of races before hand is of no importance. What is of major importance is who actually did better in the mountains then and there Scarponi wins. He limited his losses on the climbs Evans excelled at, and took advantage of the climb he excelled at.

Also Scarponi also gained time on Evans in the Gavia stage, beating EVans in the sprint for 3rd for 8 bonus seconds.

And the Italians werent trying to crack Evans, they were trying to put maximum time into Arroyo, though the results are the same.

 

[Angliru]

While Cadel is a great rider, is it possible he may even lack confidence in himself. How many times has one watched a race and screamed for him to attack. Just do something other than follow the leaders.

I don't see attacking (or not attacking) as his problem. He's at his limit or close to it depending on the tempo once the selection is made, so attacking for Evans is just a recipe for disaster. I've never been one to be overly impressed with Evans tactical mind considering he has, even up to last year's Giro, ridden himself into exhaustion while trying to stay with his opponents when it often would be best to let them go and try to reel them in/ or, using Leipheimer's favorite phrase, "limit his lossess" by riding at his own pace.

I compare this to Nibali at last year's Vuelta where he realized that his attempts to immediately respond to Anton's, Rodriguez' and Mosquera's attacks were putting him in the red and thus altered his strategy to avoid blowing up. This resulted in him being able to eventually bridge back to his opponents after their initial accelerations. Sastre is quite well known for this.
How many times have we seen Sastre looking like he is a world of trouble as his opposition start distancing themselves from him on a climb only to see Sastre slowly coming from nowhere and bridge back up and often times pass up some of the same riders that had initially dropped him.

 

[El Pistolero]

That doesn't quite tell the whole story.

Contador punctured on the climb to Tignes early in the race, losing about 30s on Evans.

Contador took minutes off Evans in the Pyrenees, but that was the Chicken and Bertie show. Without Ras we don't know what Contador would have done. Evans was worked over by them and Soler rather nicely. Overall he was still the 3rd best climber in the race (Soler and Leipheimer picked it up well in 3rd week after being off the pace in the Alps).

Overall Evans was very strong in 2007. If he took that kind of form to the 2011 TdF he might podium, but would still lose minutes in total to "Contador" (in 2011 it's probably "Schleck") over the three toughest MTFs - Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille and Alpe D'Huez. 2007 his TT was great, but there isn't enough long flat ITT miles this year (and like others I think his TTing has fallen away a bit).

I think tactically Evans is better than 2007, but I doubt his climbing and TTing has improved.

No one really knows how the race dynamic will play out, Wiggins finished 4th in 2009, the ridiculous/unexpected can happen if the racing goes a certain way.

He also punctured while chasing Soler at the Galibier. Pretty sure without that puncture Contador would have caught and dropped Soler. He was flying like I've never seen before.

 

[The Hitch]

Colombian riders are the next big thing in cycling. We had Spanish domination the last few years. Now it's going to be Colombian domination in a couple years time.

Fabio Duarte
Gregeory Brenes
Eduard Beltran

Plus the Colombians already in the mix such as Soler (if he stops crashing).

Cycling is booming in that area of the world.

You dont mention Henao

 

[kurtinsc]

Hang on. You said



That race

Now you change that to

Whether Evans is better than Scarponi overall is another matter. I agree that evans is a better climber overall.

But when you introduce the debate as to who was better in the Giro, then the fact that Evans did a lot of races before hand is of no importance. What is of major importance is who actually did better in the mountains then and there Scarponi wins. He limited his losses on the climbs Evans excelled at, and took advantage of the climb he excelled at.

Also Scarponi also gained time on Evans in the Gavia stage, beating EVans in the sprint for 3rd for 8 bonus seconds.

And the Italians werent trying to crack Evans, they were trying to put maximum time into Arroyo, though the results are the same.

And I still think he was the second best climber in that race.

Not good enough to keep from losing big time to Scarponi/Nibali/Basso all working together on a stage... but a better individual climber over the course of the race then either Nibali or Scarponi.

That's different then being a better racer or being better that one day. Tactics, strategy, relationships within the peleton... all play into the results of the race.

Evans also did his normal "kill himself to keep contact, then bonk bad" on that stage... but he did it on the Motirolo instead of Aprica. Another case of not riding his own pace, which might have left him some energy to limit losses on the Aprica.

When it comes down to it... the grit that Evans has tends to hurt him quite a lot. He hangs on too long, then loses much more time then he should when guys have better climbing legs then he does. In the end, I don't view that as a lack of climbing ability... but rather a poor grasp of tactics. That's why Scarponi nearly caught back up on Zoncolan and Arroyo caught him at the peak of the Motirolo. They rode within their abilities where Evans (despite having more ability on those days), tried to ride above his abilities... and failed.

Anyway... it kind of feels like nit-picking one way or another. The whole point I was trying to make is that Evans is an elite climber. Not as good as the best, but equal to or better then all but 3-5 guys considering everyone on their best days. He's not a Levi Leipheimer climber like some seem to be indicating.

 

[kurtinsc]

I don't see attacking (or not attacking) as his problem. He's at his limit or close to it depending on the tempo once the selection is made, so attacking for Evans is just a recipe for disaster. I've never been one to be overly impressed with Evans tactical mind considering he has, even up to last year's Giro, ridden himself into exhaustion while trying to stay with his opponents when it often would be best to let them go and try to reel them in/ or, using Leipheimer's favorite phrase, "limit his lossess" by riding at his own pace.

I compare this to Nibali at last year's Vuelta where he realized that his attempts to immediately respond to Anton's, Rodriguez' and Mosquera's attacks were putting him in the red and thus altered his strategy to avoid blowing up. This resulted in him being able to eventually bridge back to his opponents after their initial accelerations. Sastre is quite well known for this.
How many times have we seen Sastre looking like he is a world of trouble as his opposition start distancing themselves from him on a climb only to see Sastre slowly coming from nowhere and bridge back up and often times pass up some of the same riders that had initially dropped him.

You said this much better then I have.

 

[hrotha]

You dont mention Henao

Furthermore, Brenes is Costa Rican.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

You dont mention Henao

right now colombia has the best genration ever coming on. carlos betancourt the winner of the giro bio last year finished only 5th in his own nation vuelta juventud (vuelta colombia for u23) to give you an idea how broad their talentbase is.

henao is almost from a different order. the guy in his first yera riding the big tours in colombia wins at age 22 the vuelta against guys like rujano, sevilla, colorado and more. if he can confirm this year he will be the next big thing amongst 15 other colombians.

 

[El Pistolero]

right now colombia has the best genration ever coming on. carlos betancourt the winner of the giro bio last year finished only 5th in his own nation vuelta juventud (vuelta colombia for u23) to give you an idea how broad their talentbase is.

henao is almost from a different order. the guy in his first yera riding the big tours in colombia wins at age 22 the vuelta against guys like rujano, sevilla, colorado and more. if he can confirm this year he will be the next big thing amongst 15 other colombians.

Not that I'm going to argue against the huge talent of the Columbian cyclists, but I just don't see them breaking through in Europe. At least not most of them.

That and I think the likes of Andy Schleck would win the Vuelta a Colombia pretty easily if they were in their "Tour form".

Henao could make it in Europe though, but that depends on the choices he makes and on his bike handling skills in a European peloton.

 

[Parrulo]

impressive how some1 people still think cadel has a chance. he isn't bad but he no longer is GT podium material imo and he has been proving that for the past 2 years, even tho ofc every time there is a very understandable excuse.

Not that I'm going to argue against the huge talent of the Columbian cyclists, but I just don't see them breaking through in Europe. At least not most of them.

That and I think the likes of Andy Schleck would win the Vuelta a Colombia pretty easily if they were in their "Tour form".

i agree with that. i think there is way to much hyping around columbians this days. them(columbians) aussies and the uk/usa guys are hyped way to much.

take a look at spain and belgium and italy. you don't hear much about their young talents mostly cus unlike the columbians and anglo saxon countries they already have plenty of talent. they live the present and not the future. at the end of the day those 3 nations will still dominate the sport like they have been doing since god knows when and most of this kids "we" hype will be performing miles bellow the expectations people had for them.

 

[biopass]

Contador was a young buck finding his way in the grand tours at that point. He's improved in everyway since then while Evans, it could be argued has stagnated in terms of his Tour performances. Additionally, his performances versus the clock have deteriorated over the past couple of years while Contaor's has improved for the most part, with the exception of his perfomance in the final ITT at last year's Tour. I really don't see Evans having a chance. The young guns are nipping at his heels or have already passed him. The best he can hope for is breaking the top 5.

Dont insult me by bringing someone who could barely hang on to baby Schleck and then fail a drug test. Connect the dots.

 

[Angliru]

You said this much better then I have.

Nahh. After posting it I scrolled down and realized I was parroting what was already posted with the exception of the Sastre & Nibali references.

 

[Angliru]

impressive how some1 people still think cadel has a chance. he isn't bad but he no longer is GT podium material imo and he has been proving that for the past 2 years, even tho ofc every time there is a very understandable excuse.




i agree with that. i think there is way to much hyping around columbians this days. them(columbians) aussies and the uk/usa guys are hyped way to much.

take a look at spain and belgium and italy. you don't hear much about their young talents mostly cus unlike the columbians and anglo saxon countries they already have plenty of talent. they live the present and not the future. at the end of the day those 3 nations will still dominate the sport like they have been doing since god knows when and most of this kids "we" hype will be performing miles bellow the expectations people had for them.

As far as the US riders the only one getting an overwhelmingly annoying amount of hype is Phinney. TJVG is getting a bit of hype for the week long stage races but I believe that is warranted because of his podium finish in the 2010 Dauphine. If you mean Farrar he's deserving of a certain amount of hype being one of the world's top sprinters. I can't imagine who else you could be referring to.

 

[Angliru]

Dont insult me by bringing someone who could barely hang on to baby Schleck and then fail a drug test. Connect the dots.

I'd respond in kind if this were the clinic but it's not. You appear to be the one who needs a serious wake up call and a thicker skin.

You really shouldn't have introduced Contador into the conversation if you didn't want a response...any response. Get over yourself.

 

[The Hitch]

As far as the US riders the only one getting an overwhelmingly annoying amount of hype is Phinney. TJVG is getting a bit of hype for the week long stage races but I believe that is warranted because of his podium finish in the 2010 Dauphine. If you mean Farrar he's deserving of a certain amount of hype being one of the world's top sprinters. I can't imagine who else you could be referring to.

And the idea that Uk riders are hyped is even more silly

Parullo, exactly what UK riders get hyped too much.

Is it the bloke who did a top 5 at the Tour who gets dismissed as Wigans, and has people fantasise about his failure? Or maybe its this Thomas bloke, olympic and world champion who is far less known than Phinney. Or is it Cav, who by 25 has won tons of gt stages and Milan San Remo, who presumably shouldnt be listed as a favourite for every sprint he enters?