Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

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I think both is true; the level in general isn't bad. Despite whatever they are saying Movistar continue to either put their priority on the Vuelta or their training plans throughout the year are just still made to top it in the Vuelta, and some guys are in pretty good form. However, there are also many GC riders, and more than for Giro and especially Tour, who don't have this as a priority during the year. In fact, almost nobody from the top guys does. It's very often second choice. But I didn't mean to diminish Roglic's achievements, fact is the Vuelta isn't the top target of the season for him either, and then, when others tend do drop off significantly, he doesn't.
I stand by my assessment that his best isn't as good as Pogacar's best; however, time may prove me wrong.
Carapaz peaked for Vuelta 2020, Carthy peaked for Vuelta 2020, Dan Martin too, while Roglic was seriously fatigued for that race. This year obviously you have Adam Yates who targeted Vuelta. Movistar always targets Vuelta with their best riders, that's why often they're not great during Spring, to have the best form for TDF+Vuelta. And who did he beat in 2019? Valverde who is exact same profile of a rider that doesn't know about bad form, and the ultimate wonderkid Pogster who peaked for that Vuelta as it was his only GT of a year. That's enough top guys on form. Now who are the other riders like Roglic and Piti who are on form even when they're not? MvdP, WvA, Pogi, Sagan, baby Eddy... What do they have in common? They're among the best of the best. I understand your observation which I think is correct, I just don't see how is that a key explanation of Rog's Vuelta "domination".
And speaking about Pog, man has no weakspot, he's almost bulletproof. He has all the strenghts of Rog but none of the weaknesses. IMO he's a better GT rider atm, and Rog was never really top in those 1-day 250+km classics so no wonder Pog beat him in LBL. But you never know what future brings...
 
Carapaz peaked for Vuelta 2020, Carthy peaked for Vuelta 2020, Dan Martin too, while Roglic was seriously fatigued for that race. This year obviously you have Adam Yates who targeted Vuelta. Movistar always targets Vuelta with their best riders, that's why often they're not great during Spring, to have the best form for TDF+Vuelta. And who did he beat in 2019? Valverde who is exact same profile of a rider that doesn't know about bad form, and the ultimate wonderkid Pogster who peaked for that Vuelta as it was his only GT of a year. That's enough top guys on form. Now who are the other riders like Roglic and Piti who are on form even when they're not? MvdP, WvA, Pogi, Sagan, baby Eddy... What do they have in common? They're among the best of the best. I understand your observation which I think is correct, I just don't see how is that a key explanation of Rog's Vuelta "domination".
And speaking about Pog, man has no weakspot, he's almost bulletproof. He has all the strenghts of Rog but none of the weaknesses. IMO he's a better GT rider atm, and Rog was never really top in those 1-day 250+km classics so no wonder Pog beat him in LBL. But you never know what future brings...
I agree with most of your post, but the first few words. Carapaz was peaking for the Giro 2020, thrown into the Tour last minute and ended up in the Vuelta as exactly a second choice GT. Also Dan Martin was peaking for the Tour, but had a tailbone(?) injury after a crash in the Dauphiné and ended up going for GC in the Vuelta, again as a second choice. With also both Roglic himself and Mas finishing top 5 in the Tour, you could argue that only really Carthy of the top 5 specifically peaked for the Vuelta, while the rest of the top 10 were pretty much non-factors for a guy like Roglic.
 
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I'm more thinking about the peak form of their season . As you say Carapaz targeted Giro which was before Vuelta, but then he went to Tour, improved his form and when Vuelta came he was great. And he's a top GC guy. All I'm saying it's not as simple as he won because they've been all off form and he's just better then them when off form because he probably beats them in the Tour when they're all on form except Pogi. I agree more with the observation that Vuelta routes suit him and no Pog in the race massively helps
 
Carapaz peaked for Vuelta 2020, Carthy peaked for Vuelta 2020, Dan Martin too, while Roglic was seriously fatigued for that race. This year obviously you have Adam Yates who targeted Vuelta. Movistar always targets Vuelta with their best riders, that's why often they're not great during Spring, to have the best form for TDF+Vuelta. And who did he beat in 2019? Valverde who is exact same profile of a rider that doesn't know about bad form, and the ultimate wonderkid Pogster who peaked for that Vuelta as it was his only GT of a year. That's enough top guys on form. Now who are the other riders like Roglic and Piti who are on form even when they're not? MvdP, WvA, Pogi, Sagan, baby Eddy... What do they have in common? They're among the best of the best. I understand your observation which I think is correct, I just don't see how is that a key explanation of Rog's Vuelta "domination".
And speaking about Pog, man has no weakspot, he's almost bulletproof. He has all the strenghts of Rog but none of the weaknesses. IMO he's a better GT rider atm, and Rog was never really top in those 1-day 250+km classics so no wonder Pog beat him in LBL. But you never know what future brings...
Well, it was never meant to be a key explanation, simply a feature of Roglic, without thinking much about the consequences, but if one does want to consider those, I'm not sure I would see him as clearly better than Carapaz if both are really at their best on a route with not much time trialing.
Against most current GT riders of course he would always win with his time trialing alone, although I think some of the upcoming youngsters have better time trialing, but guys like Carthy are nothing like a match in that regard.

(I think with van Aert for instance you could see a clear "low" in form in spring, which still brought him great results, but in quite a few races I could clearly see that he's not as good as he can be. I really couldn't name such races for Roglic.)
 
Well, it was never meant to be a key explanation, simply a feature of Roglic, without thinking much about the consequences, but if one does want to consider those, I'm not sure I would see him as clearly better than Carapaz if both are really at their best on a route with not much time trialing.
Against most current GT riders of course he would always win with his time trialing alone, although I think some of the upcoming youngsters have better time trialing, but guys like Carthy are nothing like a match in that regard.

(I think with van Aert for instance you could see a clear "low" in form in spring, which still brought him great results, but in quite a few races I could clearly see that he's not as good as he can be. I really couldn't name such races for Roglic.)
Regarding your opinion on Carapaz vs Roglic when both in their best form: if that was true, then we can conclude Vingegaard is a better GC contender than Roglic.

I like Carapaz and root for him as well and I might agree with your statement last year after Vuelta, but after this years tour - not anymore… he was in form, having full support of his team and didn’t manage to beat Vingegaard once while losing GC to him despite Vingegaard having lost 1:20 when he was waiting for Roglic. Yes, it was somehow TT heavy Tour - but he would have lost even without TT difference if Vingegaard didn’t wait for Roglic.

So we can’t even start comparing Carapaz to Pogacar while Roglic would imo at least be a decent opponent to Pogacar. That’s why I don’t believe Roglic and Carapaz are on same or similar GC level when both in form.
 
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To add to the conversation above, I just wanted to point out the difference between Roglič in the Vuelta 2020 and Carapaz in this year's Vuelta. I know no situation is the same and is difficult to compare. But I remember some people were criticizing Roglič's Vuelta win in 2020 for reasons like "but he only won on time bonuses", "he was fading in the third week, Carapaz was better", "he got help from Movistar", "the Vuelta was shorter and there was no proper third week", and so on. While a lot of those statements were maybe not far from the truth, it doesn't change the fact that what Roglič did last year, was an amazing feat.

So back to my point. Roglič last year and Carapaz this year both had similar paths towards the Vuelta. Both were at 100% or close to it before the Tour already. Roglič in 2020 from Nationals, Tour de l'Ain, Dauphhine, TdF, Worlds, LBL till the end of the Vuelta. Carapaz this year from Tour de Suisse, TdF, Olympics and now the Vuelta. Heck, I'd argue Roglič's path was more difficult with the Dauphine crash and exit before the last stage while in the lead and of course with the crushing defeat in the Tour on the last day. Also his peak was stronger and kept for a longer period of time in my opinion.

So... in contrast to Roglič, who was battling for the Vuelta win last year and in the end also succeded, Carapaz is now nowhere to be seen and is riding in grupetto. I know he is on domestique duties now, but that's because he showed in the first week he can't compete for top placings. And people expected this. Nobody is criticising him, because it was normal for him to fade. Yet people (not all of them) somehow forgot all about it when Primož was involved and were quick to bring out the well known "Roglič always fades in the third week" theory, while dismissing that he was on close to peak form for 3 months and that he was riding on fumes towards the end of Vuelta 2020.

This post is not an attempt to mock Carapaz, far from it. I've said many times I like him as a rider and probably even overrated him a bit at times. But the whole description of the situation is just another proof to me of what an exceptional rider Primož is and that he is still on another level as a full package compared to the likes of Carapaz.

Now please stop with the crashes and go win another Vuelta (and Emilia, and Lombardia).
 
Well, it was never meant to be a key explanation, simply a feature of Roglic, without thinking much about the consequences, but if one does want to consider those, I'm not sure I would see him as clearly better than Carapaz if both are really at their best on a route with not much time trialing.
Against most current GT riders of course he would always win with his time trialing alone, although I think some of the upcoming youngsters have better time trialing, but guys like Carthy are nothing like a match in that regard.

(I think with van Aert for instance you could see a clear "low" in form in spring, which still brought him great results, but in quite a few races I could clearly see that he's not as good as he can be. I really couldn't name such races for Roglic.)
There's a difference between having a high base form and peaking. Also Roglic doesn't race that much early in the year. Add the easier parcourses or punchier parcourses in the spring and a short TT in stage races and they basically become very hard to lose for Roglic by nature.

I find it hard to say Roglic was peaking in Paris Nice. First race of 2021. He was beating Schachmann like he was supposed to, but didn't really drop the hammer down on the big MTF.
 
With the GC being in a bit of a stalemate since last Monday (except for the suicide no risk no glory mission last Tuesday), I'm leaning towards this final week producing really big gaps.

I also think memories of past misadventures in the final key stages of the Tour & Vuelta 2020 will have made JV & Roglic focus their preparation on these coming mountain stages. I mean before the Tour de France he already said he wanted to be in top form for week 3, so I'll assume the same will apply here (no full GT in his legs either).

So I know the media buzz out there today is all about "Movistar has to make Roglic crack... he has cracked in week 3 before" etc. I tend to believe the contrary is more likely (namely on Wednesday & Thursday). It's Saturday's stage which looks a bit more dangerous IMO (especially if the weather is bad).

Hopefully he has a big enough gap by then.
 
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With the GC being in a bit of a stalemate since last Monday (except for the suicide no risk no glory mission last Tuesday), I'm leaning towards this final week producing really big gaps.

I also think memories of past misadventures in the final key stages of the Tour & Vuelta 2020 will have made JV & Roglic focus their preparation on these coming mountain stages. I mean before the Tour de France he already said he wanted to be in top form for week 3, so I'll assume the same will apply here (no full GT in his legs either).

So I know the media buzz out there today is all about "Movistar has to make Roglic crack... he has cracked in week 3 before" etc. I tend to believe the contrary is more likely (namely on Wednesday & Thursday). It's Saturday's stage which looks a bit more dangerous IMO (especially if the weather is bad).

Hopefully he has a big enough gap by then.
Again...Roglic "cracking" in week 3 is a narrative started after he was sick or had crashed heavily....which is not the same as "cracking in week 3 narrative"...see Mas interview...who has been staring at the Roglic a..zz for the entire race....doesn't see him weakening in 3rd wk...(i go with his assessment ) since he is "there" ... can we start a Bernal narrative now that he "always cracks in his second grand tour of the season" ? ...so i agree with you..i think the other pretenders are in trouble in week 3
 
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Maybe Roglič is just practising drifting. That is nobody will do anything about the crashes. Some people in addition tend to like to see crashes. Then best to do them right.

As long as they don't interfere with the GC battle, why not?
It's not why not. It's why not, eh?

I was already pondering how Roglic had made a Raikkonen to Hakkinnen transformation in terms of his charismatic level with the media.

Maybe a future career in rally car driving also awaits, eh?
 
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