The issue for those scenarios is can Roglic get healthier through stage 8 and be effective. He'd need confidence in his overall form to do that and the problem is back injuries don't heal with racing. If his dislocated shoulder is affecting his scapula to his spine then he's likely done. If he impacted his lower back separately he's likely done. Both of these zones are under stress for the kind of power riding and long term effort we'd hope he could do to put Pogacar under pressure and there are no treatments that make that a 5 hour reality.With a healthy trio i guess playing a numbers game where Pogi would be squeezed somewhere in between Vingegaard and Rogla would enable them to divide some seconds in between all three. With injured Rogla i fear that Pogi will only gain seconds and from Vingegaard perspective he would need to crack Pogi climbing. Likely Pogi on a bad day. From Rogla perspective he would need to do something that is uncommon for modern cycling.
If he's bruised....maybe he can fight through that.
Jonas doesn't have it to take Tadej on mano y' mano.