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The issue for those scenarios is can Roglic get healthier through stage 8 and be effective. He'd need confidence in his overall form to do that and the problem is back injuries don't heal with racing. If his dislocated shoulder is affecting his scapula to his spine then he's likely done. If he impacted his lower back separately he's likely done. Both of these zones are under stress for the kind of power riding and long term effort we'd hope he could do to put Pogacar under pressure and there are no treatments that make that a 5 hour reality.
If he's bruised....maybe he can fight through that.
Jonas doesn't have it to take Tadej on mano y' mano.
Yes pretty much this. It's very difficult to get over these kind of injuries by riding your bike 4+ hours a day at high intensities. The next three stages and the rest day in between will be important for this. If they're raced at slow pace and given to the break, it would be best for him to recover for Galibier-Granon and Alpe d'Huez. But Ineos would be stupid to allow that given they want to be on the Podium in the end.
Also, riding with pain takes a big mental toll, takes away concentration, makes you in a way more susceptible to further crashes and more likely to get sick because the body is very stressed. All in all a very difficult situation but Rogla is the guy who might be able to do it.
 
In regards to this race. Personally i fell it was killed off on stage 5. Any chance of seeing a healthy fight and rivalry to the finish line. Gone in the dust.

As for Ineos i agree that they might have already given up. Still if it's third place they care about they likely don't care who are the two riders at front. In the back of their mind they likely do realize Rogla can still crack them. And in that case it will hurt. If they would be passive through the reminder of the race. Something like we only need to control Rogla and we are good. Imagine all this backfiring. In addition there are cyclist like Majka. Nowhere to be seen. And then after a couple of stages of that to be seen and launching Pogi. Then on the top of the hill bragging on how strong of a team they are and they don't fear anybody. This is accumulating and lets say some time in the future. Like lets say 10 years from now. Ineos will decide to prove them wrong. If Pogi would to have mechanical teams will wait. If he would to go back to the car for water. In that case they would in my opinion respond.

As for JV. Great team but what they will likely be doing is to be aggressive for green. Resting Pogi in the bunch. Not something to rely on to change the outcome of this race.

UAE. Not much to say about that.

Other teams. I don't see it.

Vingegaard. They will likely wait for an opportunity to catch Pogi on a bad day and try to make a difference climbing. Rogla injured and they not having the numbers game. JV resting Pogi in the stages to come. Slim chance. Even if Jonas manages to gain some time. The amount of time Pogi will likely gain in stomp finishes and in ITT will be too much.

Rogla. Battling a different battle now. Likely to decide on the first rest day if it makes sense to continue or not. For that i feel that the situation would need to improve substantially in the next two days. If by a miracle he recovers day by day. Then i guess he should start early. To be vigilant for opportunities to take some time back. One single blow in modern cycling is likely not possible. Against such strong field. From lets say two opportunities taken. Then we can talk. But still i am leaning more towards abandoning after first rest day.

We'll see.
 
Interesting commentary Stefano Garzelli just made on RAI coverage, pondering over the internal state of affairs in Jumbo. He imagined that it's possible, although only his hypothesis, that the other day when Van Aert went ahead alone all in for 80 kms the day after Roglic's fall, rather than nurse a team captain into rythem..."When you see a teammate do that, when you are looking to contain the race pace, it, I can assured you, makes you very nervous and edgy." Here's a guy who won the Henri Degranges prize, sprinting against Jalabert on the Galibier, in 2006, apart from a Giro in 2000. (?)
 
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Interesting comment Stefano Garzelli just made on RAI coverage, pondering over the internal state of affairs in Jumbo. He imagined that it's possible, although only his hypothesis, that the other day when Van Aert went ahead alone all in for 80 kms the day after Roglic's fall, rather than nurse a team captain into rythem..."When you see a teammate do that when you are looking to contain the race pace, it, I can assured you, makes you very nervous and edgy." Here's a guy who won the Henri Degranges prize, sprinting against Jalabert on the Galibier, in 2006, apart from a Giro in 2000. (?)
Also won Rund um den Henninger Turm in a bunch sprint against all the German sprinters in 2006 and lots of Italian semiclassics.
 
Reactions: Extinction
Interesting commentary Stefano Garzelli just made on RAI coverage, pondering over the internal state of affairs in Jumbo. He imagined that it's possible, although only his hypothesis, that the other day when Van Aert went ahead alone all in for 80 kms the day after Roglic's fall, rather than nurse a team captain into rythem..."When you see a teammate do that, when you are looking to contain the race pace, it, I can assured you, makes you very nervous and edgy." Here's a guy who won the Henri Degranges prize, sprinting against Jalabert on the Galibier, in 2006, apart from a Giro in 2000. (?)
I feel a bit dense. What exactly does this mean? That Wout made a decision to do something that was designed to hurt Roglic’s morale?
 
Reactions: Sandisfan and noob
I feel a bit dense. What exactly does this mean? That Wout made a decision to do something that was designed to hurt Roglic’s morale?
When Van Aert was firing his bullets all over the road on Thursday, at one point the peloton split with Roglic in the second group. His GC could have ended right there & then. Imagine being the team captain (number 11), nursing an injury & your teammates are actively screwing your chances? Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Roglic was indeed nervous & on edge at that moment (especially after what transpired on the cobbles stage).

But based on today's ridiculous display (dragging Pogacar towards more bonus seconds), it's becoming apparent there's something very wrong at Jumbo Visma.
 
When Van Aert was firing his bullets all over the road on Thursday, at one point the peloton split with Roglic in the second group. His GC could have ended right there & then. Imagine being the team captain (number 11), nursing an injury & your teammates are actively screwing your chances? Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Roglic was indeed nervous & on edge at that moment (especially after what transpired on the cobbles stage).

But based on today's ridiculous display (dragging Pogacar towards more bonus seconds), it's becoming apparent there's something very wrong at Jumbo Visma.
Do you mean Roglic doing that 2 days ago and Vingegaard yesterday? Today I thought Jumbo played it exactly right. Sat behind Pogacar and then sent their strongest rider to try to steal the bonus seconds. If Wout hadn’t gone Pogacar would have gotten more. Vingegaard was in perfect position but couldn’t compete. Roglic wasn’t positioned super well but due to the crash likely wasn’t capable of doing anything other than ride in the bunch.
 
He is still struggling with injury. Can be seen from the expressions on his face. Still he did managed to held on today till the finish line. Whole Jumbo GC section losing 4 boni seconds to Pogi. One more stage till the rest day. After that some brutal stages. And i guess some serious decision time.
 
Reactions: Carols and noob
Do you mean Roglic doing that 2 days ago and Vingegaard yesterday? Today I thought Jumbo played it exactly right. Sat behind Pogacar and then sent their strongest rider to try to steal the bonus seconds. If Wout hadn’t gone Pogacar would have gotten more. Vingegaard was in perfect position but couldn’t compete. Roglic wasn’t positioned super well but due to the crash likely wasn’t capable of doing anything other than ride in the bunch.
Yes, JV played it right for today. Roglic should have had some opportunity to "rest" a little and work out his back issue or....make it worse. We should find out tomorrow if he can get some separation from Pogacar's group and INEOS doesn't do all of Tadej's retrieval work as some have noted. Tomorrow should define JV's strategy going forward.
 
I feel a bit dense. What exactly does this mean? That Wout made a decision to do something that was designed to hurt Roglic’s morale?
Could be or else Jumbo doesn't have their priorities straight, I'm betting on the latter. It could also be that Wout is playing with Jumbo's balls and the whole competition with it. But who am I to say? Fact is if Jumbo wants to win this Tour, then they have to put Wout in his place.
 
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Do you mean Roglic doing that 2 days ago and Vingegaard yesterday? Today I thought Jumbo played it exactly right. Sat behind Pogacar and then sent their strongest rider to try to steal the bonus seconds. If Wout hadn’t gone Pogacar would have gotten more. Vingegaard was in perfect position but couldn’t compete. Roglic wasn’t positioned super well but due to the crash likely wasn’t capable of doing anything other than ride in the bunch.
They almost wiped out the Roglic GC challenge entirely on Thursday in the early part of that 220km stage, with WvA exploding the peloton again, again & again whilst Rog was in the second group getting dropped. Who even does that? I mean there's no miracles in cycling: when your own teammates work against you, it's game over real fast.

I've been scouring social media & fortunately, I'm not the only one seeing or saying this stuff. The comments by Stefano Garzelli quoted previously also point in the same direction. Jumbo have done Roglic dirty in this TdF. No doubt in my mind. I think the uncomfortable truth based on his age & contract (which he signed last year) is the fact it would probably suit Jumbo Visma very much to transform Roglic into a super domestique in the TdF going forwards. Even more so for a younger rider (Jonas V) who Roglic sort of mentored himself.

I'm getting tired of this whole sh*tshow tbh & I could be way off with my assessment but I would hypothesize a question Roglic probably asked months ago, i.e. something like "where's the help for GC coming from if we're going for green as well?", the answer was probably the name of the rider asking the question, aka Primoz Roglic.

He just didn't know it at the time. They probably 'hoped' Jonas would gradually emerge as a stronger rider & natural selection would do the rest.
 
Roglic talks about feeling like he gets a knife in the back every pedal stroke and is just about smiling about it.

The signals have been there in plain sight.

Et tu, Wout?
lol, I noted that knife potential double-entendre yesterday. I didn't want to go full-in with the Caesar references though because it could look like I'm reading way too deep into stuff that's just not there. But on the same topic, that half-hearted fist-bump WvA & Rog gave each other at the end of the stage today was also a huge change from the team (& Roglic) exuberance on Tuesday (after they drilled that cat 4 climb for the WvA win in yellow).

It's not just about the injury as well, considering his smiles on the team presentation podium this morning & in interviews last night. Injured Roglic can still smile. He has that superpower.
 
lol, I noted that knife potential double-entendre yesterday. I didn't want to go full-in with the Caesar references though because it could look like I'm reading way too deep into stuff that's just not there. But on the same topic, that half-hearted fist-bump WvA & Rog gave each other at the end of the stage today was also a huge change from the team (& Roglic) exuberance on Tuesday (after they drilled that cat 4 climb for the WvA win in yellow).

It's not just about the injury as well, considering his smiles on the team presentation podium this morning & in interviews last night. Injured Roglic can still smile. He has that superpower.
I don't read into their reactions. I'm pretty sure the team isn't imploding internally only becuase they seem to have good personal relationships.
 

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