Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[dazaau]

So here is my question. Is it ideal for roglic if Jonas does start the tour?

Would it mean Pogacar would try get early time in case he fades in the third week and Jonas rides into form? Which if roglic can mostly follow gets him time on Jonas, and then in the back end he can follow Jonas as he tries to gain time on fatigued Pogacar, the net result being he can lose some time to both but come out on top overall?

 

[Rackham]

So here is my question. Is it ideal for roglic if Jonas does start the tour?

Would it man Pogacar would try get early time in case he fades in the third week and Jonas rides into from? Which if roglic can mostly follow gets him time on Jonas, and then in the back end he can follow Jonas as he tries to gain time on fatigued Pogacar, the net result being he can lose some time to both but come out on top overall?

Whatever the possible scenarios (& lots can happen) I agree it's definitely best for Rog if Vineggaard starts the Tour. More the merrier. It's best if he isn't the sole focus of Pog, Evenepoel or the rest.

Meanwhile, he's now in Sierra Nevada for his May altitude camp:

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[SHAD0W93]

So here is my question. Is it ideal for roglic if Jonas does start the tour?

Would it man Pogacar would try get early time in case he fades in the third week and Jonas rides into from? Which if roglic can mostly follow gets him time on Jonas, and then in the back end he can follow Jonas as he tries to gain time on fatigued Pogacar, the net result being he can lose some time to both but come out on top overall?

Depends on Vingegaard’s form. If he and Visma are like the last two years no. If he’s weak then yes since he can latch onto his wheel on a flier attempt. Hopefully he rides like 2021 or 2023 Vuelta and doesn’t need Vlasov or Hindley to try a Kuss.

I hope everyone and their teams are in great form, it could lead to some great racing as long as everyone stays up.

 

[Oldermanish]

And because they rode way too defensively

I would guess the DS and team felt they honestly knew Roglic's limits and projected the hoped for TT results in long term strategy. They were wrong and the surprised looks on the face of WVA and other team members betrayed the miscalculation. 3 hard weeks of effort gone in seconds! Call it defensive riding but that's the benefit of hindsight, isn't it?

 

[Gargamel35]

Roglič didn't do as bad of a TT as Pog did an incredible one.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So here is my question. Is it ideal for roglic if Jonas does start the tour?

Would it mean Pogacar would try get early time in case he fades in the third week and Jonas rides into form? Which if roglic can mostly follow gets him time on Jonas, and then in the back end he can follow Jonas as he tries to gain time on fatigued Pogacar, the net result being he can lose some time to both but come out on top overall?

If all four would be in peak condition then the race dynamics would in my opinion be different. Now if only Rogla and Pogi will end up being close to their best form, then i expect Tour 2024 to be more of the aftermath of the Tour 2020 edition. The one we didn't get to see in 2021 (and 2022 and 2023). I assume Pogi will be more active at the beginning of the Tour and if any substantial differences won't be made, then further and further into the race, the better position Rogla will be in. And if Jonas will start the Tour then Vuelta field should likely be hampered by it too and hence bigger chance for a possible double.

 

[Red Rick]

Roglič didn't do as bad of a TT as Pog did an incredible one.

Nah by expectations he was actually bad. He was basically seen as the best climber and best TTer in the race at that point, but his ITT rep was all from 2019 and before. He was the clear betting favorite to win the TT and he got 5th behind two of his own teammates and domestiques as well as Richie Porte as well

I think if he performed to expectations he would have lost the ITT but saved the Tour

 

[bNator]

Nah by expectations he was actually bad. He was basically seen as the best climber and best TTer in the race at that point, but his ITT rep was all from 2019 and before. He was the clear betting favorite to win the TT and he got 5th behind two of his own teammates and domestiques as well as Richie Porte as well

I think if he performed to expectations he would have lost the ITT but saved the Tour

Yes, at that point he was already established as equal if not better TTer as Dumoulin, not to mention he was in a better shape than him and much more motivated to get the results. At least 30 seconds faster than Dumoulin was the expected performance.

 

[Gigs_98]

So here is my question. Is it ideal for roglic if Jonas does start the tour?

Would it mean Pogacar would try get early time in case he fades in the third week and Jonas rides into form? Which if roglic can mostly follow gets him time on Jonas, and then in the back end he can follow Jonas as he tries to gain time on fatigued Pogacar, the net result being he can lose some time to both but come out on top overall?

I think Roglic's clearest path to victory is not some rider focusing on someone else, but simply being the strongest in a race where the best gc rider is coming back from injury and the second best gc rider messed up his prep due to doing the giro. And in that sense I really don't think an additional competitor helps him. I'd rather have to hope one of the two top dogs isn't in good shape than both of them.

 

[Berniece]

Why is he riding Dauphine instead of Suisse? Not only is Suisse the only major 1-week stage race he's missing on his palmares, he also has more chance of winning it, as well as stages compared to Dauphine. Would think it's great for morale.

 

[Rackham]

Why is he riding Dauphine instead of Suisse? Not only is Suisse the only major 1-week stage race he's missing on his palmares, he also has more chance of winning it, as well as stages compared to Dauphine. Would think it's great for morale.

Why does he have more chance in Suisse?

Dauphiné was always part of his season plans. He'll come down from altitude in Sierra Nevada, go to the Dauphiné & then fine tune his form right before the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Why is he riding Dauphine instead of Suisse? Not only is Suisse the only major 1-week stage race he's missing on his palmares, he also has more chance of winning it, as well as stages compared to Dauphine. Would think it's great for morale.

Dauphine is far enough from the Tour to go back to altitude.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah, considering most gc guys with focus on the Tour usually do the Dauphine, it's pretty save to say teams think it's the better prep race.

But it might also be to fan the discussions in the Remco vs. Roglic thread. Tricky to tell, which of the two it is.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, considering most gc guys with focus on the Tour usually do the Dauphine, it's pretty save to say teams think it's the better prep race.

But it might also be to fan the discussions in the Remco vs. Roglic thread. Tricky to tell, which of the two it is.

Until this year I thought it was the blood contract to not meet Pogacar in a stage race.

 

[Netserk]

Why is he riding Dauphine instead of Suisse? Not only is Suisse the only major 1-week stage race he's missing on his palmares, he also has more chance of winning it, as well as stages compared to Dauphine. Would think it's great for morale.

No one gives a *** about Suisse. Dauphiné is better prep for the Tour, and it's all about the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

If there was a slight moment to care about Suisse it was last year, and the priority was Vuelta prep instead.

 

[CyclistAbi]

The aim this year is to do a classical preparation for the Tour and traditionally Dauphiné filled that role. Ideally the winner of Dauphiné then goes to win the Tour. Still i feel that this all has to be adjusted a bit in regards to modern racing as cycling did change. Another interesting thing about Dauphiné and Rogla is he both abandoned and won it in the past years. So Dauphiné 2024 should be a nice indicator of the form build up and on how moody French roads might be in regards to Rogla this year. As there is a special love and hate relationship involved in between Rogla and French roads, signs, road furniture, hay bales. ..

 

[Berniece]

Why does he have more chance in Suisse?

Dauphiné was always part of his season plans. He'll come down from altitude in Sierra Nevada, go to the Dauphiné & then fine tune his form right before the Tour.

No Evenepoel, so one person less that is able to sprint uphill and follow him in the mountains. No Vingegaard, although doubt he will ride any race before the Tour after his fall.

It just made sense to me for morale and to win all those major stage races. But if it isn’t the right prep for the TDF, he shouldn’t do it.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Roglič clearly can‘t do Suisse because it‘s Manny Bookman‘s main season goal now.

 

[Rackham]

No Evenepoel, so one person less that is able to sprint uphill and follow him in the mountains. No Vingegaard, although doubt he will ride any race before the Tour after his fall.

It just made sense to me for morale and to win all those major stage races. But if it isn’t the right prep for the TDF, he shouldn’t do it.

Tbh his season (& Bora adventure) has been stillborn of sorts up until now. I just want a good training camp in Spain & then finally a proper race without incidents, terrible weather or any problems.

It's going to be a busy summer & he'll end up facing top form riders anyway, so the Dauphiné is as good a place as any to get 2024 properly started.

 

[Red Rick]

I think he's raced too little this season and he's at a big risk to get in the washing machine the entire Tour.

 

[AmRacer]

No Evenepoel, so one person less that is able to sprint uphill and follow him in the mountains. No Vingegaard, although doubt he will ride any race before the Tour after his fall.

It just made sense to me for morale and to win all those major stage races. But if it isn’t the right prep for the TDF, he shouldn’t do it.

Would be good for Remco with no Rogla at Dauphine.

 

[Berniece]

Would be good for Remco with no Rogla at Dauphine.

That too, but with that TT in it I can’t see Evenepoel lose. Otherwise I also don’t see him beat Roglic in the TDF

 

[CyclistAbi]

One of the main ideas likely was to measure against Jonas and Visma and obviously Remco. As for the ITT i wouldn't be all that sure Remco will take it. Rogla is capable of winning an ITT with such characteristics, on top of that profiles of some other stages look promising too. All in all a demanding pre-Tour stage race that is rather ideal to stress test yourself and the team. Does Rogla need to win it? In my opinion no, although i do believe he will go for the win. Regardless what will be the outcome i do expect for the bar to again be set higher, when it comes to this new chapter riding for Bora. First race more or less zero results, second race Rogla already achieved a characteristic ITT win, Dauphiné is perfect race to take it further. Main objective to stay healthy and said that it's time to win a stage race with Bora.

 

[SHAD0W93]

What stinks with the TT win is we don’t know if his climbing shape improved or if it’ll be more of the same like what happened at Paris-Nice when he looked good in the TTT. Hopefully he shows something positive.