Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[CyclistAbi]

So all big 4 participating. Likely beneficial to Rogla and Bora for approaching the race a bit more tactically, on where Pogi and UAE can try to find some Giro nails in Pogi legs for themself. Or should Rogla and Bora help with that in week one and to risk blowing up deeper in the race. As true, if everything is left to Pogi, he might not go in the finding the Giro leg nails zone all that often, Yates is not that good. Interesting decisions to be made and we'll see soon.

 

[CleanCiclismo]

So all big 4 participating. Likely beneficial to Rogla and Bora for approaching the race a bit more tactically, on where Pogi and UAE can try to find some Giro nails in Pogi legs for themself. Or should Rogla and Bora help with that in week one and to risk blowing up deeper in the race. As true, if everything is left to Pogi, he might not go in the finding the Giro leg nails zone all that often, Yates is not that good. Interesting decisions to be made and we'll see soon.

Bora has never been on the podium of the Tour so far. It would be beneficial to them to eliminate Jonas early on. Especially as Rog has a better time trial than both Americans on Visma.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Bora has never been on the podium of the Tour so far. It would be beneficial to them to eliminate Jonas early on. Especially as Rog has a better time trial than both Americans on Visma.

Pogi should in my opinion focus on Jonas, Rogla has better things to do, aiming to win the overall. Now UAE likely won't put Pogi under such pressure, to start feeling the Giro in his legs, Bora should, but when, that i guess is the question, early on or latter into the race. As week one could be perfect for it. We'll see.

 

[CyclistAbi]

https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/a-score-to-settle-new-team-same-ambition-for-primoz-roglic-at-tour-de-france/

 

[CyclistAbi]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL8sDJxwb_Q


More an more it looks like it will be in between Slovenians, for the overall at the Tour 2024. Time to build up the momentum, gearing towards the Nice. Good luck guys, let it be another one for the ages and bring the trophy home!

 

[CyclistAbi]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyMS07GfGdc

• Crashes
• Bad moments
• New team
• No Sepp Kuss
• Time Trials
• Tactics

So hopefully no crashes, i agree with that. Although Rogla doesn't crash all that much, especially not on his own, compared to other cyclists, as they all crash a whole lot. Bad moments, here i feel if it happens, then to mitigate the damages and don't worry too much about it. It's true that a new team and the lack of Sepp Kuss could be considered as being an obstacle, still it's not like riding for his old team, Rogla would be supported as a team leader. Wout, Sepp and Co. would all ride for Jonas and Jonas would ride for Jonas. So i don't see this as an obstacle but much much more improved situation for Rogla. Time trials, here i feel that true, Rogla didn't win all time trials in his career, and it was a time trial at the Tour 2020, that costed him the overall title. Still i will always consider time trials as beneficial, when it comes to Rogla and improving his GC chances. Especially the ones more similar to Rogla becoming an Olympic champion, and there is for sure some of that invoked in the Tour 2024 edition. As for the tactics, this is rather debatable, if you win then surely the tactics were spot on. So i don't agree that Jonas is that much better tactician, we will see about that the first time he struggles. Rogla managed to turn around a lot of unfavourable situations, for him, so he can't be that bad tactician. And no risk, no glory type of riding, you just have to have some fun from time to time.

 

[Oldermanish]

Kuss not starting now makes the strategy clearer for Bora, but not less complicated. UAE will want to drive a stake into Jonas early and it will be Primoz that has to pay attention if he wants to be on the podium. UAE's depth give them so many angles to play that Bora will go nuts trying to keep up.

 

[Rackham]

Kuss not starting now makes the strategy clearer for Bora, but not less complicated. UAE will want to drive a stake into Jonas early and it will be Primoz that has to pay attention if he wants to be on the podium. UAE's depth give them so many angles to play that Bora will go nuts trying to keep up.

I see his tactical situation as very simple tbh, i.e. mark Pog until the end of week 3.

I think Rog will live or die in this Tour based on what Pog does, i.e. the ball is in his court. I doubt Rog will start chasing wheels all over the road. If Almeida goes up the road, Vlasov can cover. If Yates goes, Hindley should go etc.

But there's one back wheel Rog should be glued to & that's Pog's. Unless Vingegaard demonstrates he's at the required level, I don't see that situation changing much (although as always maybe some opportunism could be achieved with an echelon or something).

Follow the yellow brick road... i.e. Pog's wheel. And if Pog gives the yellow jersey to one of his teammates, call his bluff. We all know Pog will do everything to win the Tour again therefor IMO everyone else on UAE is just a distraction. Pog's in it for the win himself. So Rog should simply ignore his UAE teammates. And he will, IMO.

 

[FroomeWagon]

I see his tactical situation as very simple tbh, i.e. mark Pog until the end of week 3.

I think Rog will live or die in this Tour based on what Pog does, i.e. the ball is in his court. I doubt Rog will start chasing wheels all over the road. If Almeida goes up the road, Vlasov can cover. If Yates goes, Hindley should go etc.

But there's one back wheel Rog should be glued to & that's Pog's. Unless Vingegaard demonstrates he's at the required level, I don't see that situation changing much (although as always maybe some opportunism could be achieved with an echelon or something).

Follow the yellow brick road... i.e. Pog's wheel. And if Pog gives the yellow jersey to one of his teammates, call his bluff. We all know Pog will do everything to win the Tour again therefor IMO everyone else on UAE is just a distraction. Pog's in it for the win himself. So Rog should simply ignore his UAE teammates. And he will, IMO.

It appears that job (of marking Pogi) is going to start day 1. Here are the current odds for stage 1.

 

[Oldermanish]

I see his tactical situation as very simple tbh, i.e. mark Pog until the end of week 3.

I think Rog will live or die in this Tour based on what Pog does, i.e. the ball is in his court. I doubt Rog will start chasing wheels all over the road. If Almeida goes up the road, Vlasov can cover. If Yates goes, Hindley should go etc.

But there's one back wheel Rog should be glued to & that's Pog's. Unless Vingegaard demonstrates he's at the required level, I don't see that situation changing much (although as always maybe some opportunism could be achieved with an echelon or something).

Follow the yellow brick road... i.e. Pog's wheel. And if Pog gives the yellow jersey to one of his teammates, call his bluff. We all know Pog will do everything to win the Tour again therefor IMO everyone else on UAE is just a distraction. Pog's in it for the win himself. So Rog should simply ignore his UAE teammates. And he will, IMO.

Following Pog is the prime strategy but at some point Roglic needs time. UAE could go old school Sky/Jumbo and just set tempo on every strategic climb and they have the horsepower to do it. If things thin out on a climb and UAE presence is down to Pog, one other guy; then the hyenas must go to work. Jorgenson could be the random aide that Roglic needs. Hell, in the right non-classic alpine setting it could be Remco.
The first week should sort out every team's priorities no matter how optimistic they may be.

 

[Miha81]

"One of the most cunning and crafty riders I’ve ever raced against" - Primoz Roglic best placed to break Pogacar/Vingegaard Tour de France stranglehold says Chris Froome

The last three editions of the Tour de France have been a two horse race between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. Ahead of the 2024 edition however, the number of pre-race Maillot Jaune contenders...

cyclinguptodate.com

Some love towards Rogla and his chances as "best of the rest".

 

[Rackham]

Following Pog is the prime strategy but at some point Roglic needs time. UAE could go old school Sky/Jumbo and just set tempo on every strategic climb and they have the horsepower to do it. If things thin out on a climb and UAE presence is down to Pog, one other guy; then the hyenas must go to work. Jorgenson could be the random aide that Roglic needs. Hell, in the right non-classic alpine setting it could be Remco.
The first week should sort out every team's priorities no matter how optimistic they may be.

The only way I see Rog getting adventurous is if he needs to gain serious time. The way I see it, every day Rog holds Pog's wheel it'll be a victory in & of itself. Starting on Saturday. The moments when Pog launches it throughout the Tour (which he will... a lot) will be high stress situations, i.e. with a loaded gun aimed at Rog in the form of "if you can't hold this wheel, you lose the Tour".

So I don't think it's a stretch to say Rog's path to victory features two main components in a very basic strategy:

- hold Pog's wheel in the mountains
- beat Pog in the ITT's (namely the last one).

Failure to achieve either will pretty much guarantee a failure in GC, i.e. with every other path to victory becoming & more & more fantastical i.e. like relying on unpredictable race moments or tactical coups to get a lead against a stronger rider. Aka the sort of stuff which is very difficult to plan for.

 

[Rackham]

"One of the most cunning and crafty riders I’ve ever raced against" - Primoz Roglic best placed to break Pogacar/Vingegaard Tour de France stranglehold says Chris Froome

The last three editions of the Tour de France have been a two horse race between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. Ahead of the 2024 edition however, the number of pre-race Maillot Jaune contenders...

cyclinguptodate.com

Some love towards Rogla and his chances as "best of the rest".

Go Froomey!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So I don't think it's a stretch to say Rog's path to victory features two main components in a very basic strategy:

- hold Pog's wheel in the mountains
- beat Pog in the ITT's (namely the last one).

Easy peasy!

 

[proffate]

Roglic brings cakes

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803111634090459446

View: https://twitter.com/SenkAndreja/status/1803111634090459446

wow I see Europe is still stuck in the 80s with this level of corniness

 

[Elos Anjos]

wow I see Europe is still stuck in the 80s with this level of corniness

Seeing Rogla driving with one hand gave me a seizure.

 

[Nick2413]

wow I see Europe is still stuck in the 80s with this level of corniness

I love it

 

[Oldermanish]

The only way I see Rog getting adventurous is if he needs to gain serious time. The way I see it, every day Rog holds Pog's wheel it'll be a victory in & of itself. Starting on Saturday. The moments when Pog launches it throughout the Tour (which he will... a lot) will be high stress situations, i.e. with a loaded gun aimed at Rog in the form of "if you can't hold this wheel, you lose the Tour".

So I don't think it's a stretch to say Rog's path to victory features two main components in a very basic strategy:

- hold Pog's wheel in the mountains
- beat Pog in the ITT's (namely the last one).

Failure to achieve either will pretty much guarantee a failure in GC, i.e. with every other path to victory becoming & more & more fantastical i.e. like relying on unpredictable race moments or tactical coups to get a lead against a stronger rider. Aka the sort of stuff which is very difficult to plan for.

We agree on those counts. Unfortunately he'll likely need more time than what he'll get in the last TT. This Tour shouldn't be decided by the Lemond benchmark.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So lets see on who first posts an image of Rogla in his brand new jersey in this thread.

 

[Peter von]

The only way I see Rog getting adventurous is if he needs to gain serious time. The way I see it, every day Rog holds Pog's wheel it'll be a victory in & of itself. Starting on Saturday. The moments when Pog launches it throughout the Tour (which he will... a lot) will be high stress situations, i.e. with a loaded gun aimed at Rog in the form of "if you can't hold this wheel, you lose the Tour".

So I don't think it's a stretch to say Rog's path to victory features two main components in a very basic strategy:

- hold Pog's wheel in the mountains
- beat Pog in the ITT's (namely the last one).

Failure to achieve either will pretty much guarantee a failure in GC, i.e. with every other path to victory becoming & more & more fantastical i.e. like relying on unpredictable race moments or tactical coups to get a lead against a stronger rider. Aka the sort of stuff which is very difficult to plan for.

indeed. I'd argue that if he is going to get adventurous he would even need different components. If Rogla isn't strong enough* to achieve your two goals, he probably isn't strong enough to get adventurous either, especially with the final stage being a hard, long-ish ITT.

So maybe if Pogi starts fading in final week or something like that, but even then Rogla will just get his team to put the hammer down(or even better let Lisa Bike do it) and hope Pogi cracks.

*or if Pogi is so strong that the two goals cannot be achieved.

 

[AmRacer]

Lisa Bike

 

[Rackham]

indeed. I'd argue that if he is going to get adventurous he would even need different components. If Rogla isn't strong enough* to achieve your two goals, he probably isn't strong enough to get adventurous either, especially with the final stage being a hard, long-ish ITT.

So maybe if Pogi starts fading in final week or something like that, but even then Rogla will just get his team to put the hammer down(or even better let Lisa Bike op it) and hope Pogi cracks.

*or is Pogi is so strong that the two goals cannot be achieved.

I think there's also a point in the Tour where the vibes need to be right.

This goes beyond tactics or merely legs, i.e. Rog & Bora need to be in the zone & not on the backfoot constantly. I think these races tend to unravel real fast when there's a series of mishaps, i.e. an accumulative amount of sh*t basically which eventually results in something horrible.

The heybale for example wasn't an isolated incident: Van Aert had crashed (minor, but still a crash), Vingegaard had his famous mechanical & Rog was left with only Laporte in the main group of favorites. But even prior to that stage, Rog had already been dropped by his own team when Van Aert won the Calais stage. So it already felt like the Tour 2022 was going wrong.

Same with 2021: Opi Omi, then 2 days later on stage 3 Gesink DNF's & Tony Martin is dropped after being taken out by a bizarre G Thomas crash. The final 20km of the stage is fast & dangerous whilst Rog is missing his bodyguards. Kaboom, Colbrelli happens.

So Red Bull Bora needs to start well on Saturday. I hope the heat helps in that regard (it's going to be 35 Celsius in Florence).

 

[Monte Serra]

Are they going bring Roglič to the Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe team presentation? I hope not.

 

[Lequack]

Boss

 

[Berniece]

Boss

He looks very sharp