One day at a time.
It's the form curve which is most important today, i.e. before the decisive dolomites stage that's the big takeaway.
If the legs were better today compared to Tuesday, they can be better tomorrow & then on Saturday as well.
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One day at a time.
It's the form curve which is most important today, i.e. before the decisive dolomites stage that's the big takeaway.
If the legs were better today compared to Tuesday, they can be better tomorrow & then on Saturday as well.
Did not look at his best TBH. Yes, they attacked and got rid of Almeida. But Thomas was too comfortable following. Even Kuss looked like he could match them.
Still 2 hard stages to go. I am hoping for the best.
Still 2 hard stages to go. I am hoping for the best.
Yeah, clearly he's already better than two days ago, so if he's on an upward trajectory, maybe tomorrow and Saturday he can be somewhat closer to his former self. He's clearly not feeling superb, but he's willing to fight.
I just checked the stage 20 TT climb again, and I have to say if Thomas and Roglic are on the similar level, I would take Roglic 10/10 times on a TT like that. I mean just look at the inhumane gradients, it's average 15,3 % for the first 5 km. Just bonkers. And we all know Roglic loves those rampas inhumanas.
I don't care what happens tomorrow, but if Roglic is less than a 1m30 behind maglia rosa, he will be wearing it in Rome.
I don't care what happens tomorrow, but if Roglic is less than a 1m30 behind maglia rosa, he will be wearing it in Rome.
Now I've thought a bit about this stage I'm really pessimistic about winning the Giro. He had literally 0 snap on his attack. Even in last years Vuelta he had more pop on his attacks.
He had no snap in his attack on stage 8 either. He does that now, i.e. change pace without dropping a nuke. I see it as a little tester to check his rivals & see what they've got. He did it on Lo Port in Catalunya as well in the final km when he slowly accelerated a couple of times before goading Evenepoel into attacking from too far out (something Evenepoel noted afterwards).
If we're to be pessimistic, I think the one part worth considering (in order to be grounded & not get totally carried away with expectations) is today's stage was shorter & the climbs were punchier (technically his sort of playground). But on the flipside, we know this rider well enough now to see that when he has bad legs, it doesn't matter the terrain: he gets dropped, i.e. Evenepoel blew him away in the first week of the Vuelta last year on climbs which were usually his bread & butter. He just couldn't follow.
My own main concern before today was that we were seeing an Itzulia 2022 type scenario where his knee injury hampered his performance on any climb, whether long, short, steep or flatter.
What we got has reassured me he's still in the fight because it says he's got some form & whatever problems he has haven't hampered him as much as the problems he's had in the past in those aforementioned races.
I thought the same before the final mtn TT in the 2020 Tour. Granted, Pogačar is much more dangerous than even a peak Thomas.
I agree, if he doesn't improve tomorrow and saturday, I really don't see how he can take time on Thomas. Even with the help of Kuss, Geraint looks way too solid.
If he does improve however, I think he has some chances. He doesn't need a huge attack, just a nice one.
TT climb is different, you can't hang onto the wheel of others. Its just your own effort.
I was Happy just to see him Not Get Dropped! If he doesn't win my feelings for him do not change. Come on the guy had a less than proper prep and came back to a GT very soon after a major operation. He had 5 teammates switched from the ones he trained with, and he crashed twice. I'm glad he's holding up. If he gives everything he has I'm proud of him no matter where he finishes 
. The Guy has GUTS!
. The Guy has GUTS!
I think we're in a situation where fans of all three of the favourites can't really rest assured that their rider will win the race without things going said rider's way.
Quite an interesting situation, even if it has taken some endurance for us viewers to get here.
I actually think Thomas is a pretty heavy favorite right now over Roglic, and I think Almeida is a huge underdog against both.
Maybe, but while Thomas is 37, he hasn't been in this situation often.
And Almeida a huge underdog? Why?
Yeah. Right now I have them ~60/30/10, but it could be argued that Thomas should be as high as 75 %.
Yup, maybe even not tomorrow but on Saturday Primoz will be strong enough to take back time and win the race, there will be no wheelsucking then, Mr G.!
So far, Thomas is +4” across combined ITTs. This one obviously looks very different. Roglic is -25” on the road in climbs so far I think to G. So I agree G is the favorite at this point. I think Roglic has a higher gear / magic that G lacks, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to manifest it in the next two stages. We’ll see. I hope so.
Double digit gradients ain't his cup of tea, and we have plenty of that in the next two days.
I think he'll ship time on Tre cime, and on Lusari especially.
If this was the last stage I think Roglic would attack on Giau. This way, I expext full Jumbo train on Giau and Tre Croce, and then Kuss and Roglic full gas on Tre Cime.
If he gaps Thomas, he will gap him even more on Monte Lussari.
If he gaps Thomas, he will gap him even more on Monte Lussari.
Thomas because he's ahead and he can defend, tomorrow is a lot longer and a lot harder which I don't think helps Roglic. If a hard stage helped him I think Jumbo would've paced today. Maybe they didn't pace cause they wanted to minimize the risk of their attack.
Almeida I just don't see in what scenario he wins? I don't see him dropping Thomas and I think he's gonna be the worst in the MTT too.
Did you remember to factor in G's hangover after his birthday celebrations?
No, I can see the point, I guess it just seems surreal to me that Geraint Thomas can actually end up winning this race.
Based on what we’ve seen in the past I don’t think Almeida stands a chance in TT. If the climb was half a a long as it is, I’d say Roglic wins easily. But with this length I don’t know… Thomas did leak a lot of time in the first stage TT on the climb. But he seems to have grown in form since then…
Almeida was also the fastest of the GC riders on the hill in the first stage though wasn’t he? And like others have said, he can ride at his own pace. He almost caught back on today with the whole Vine incident. All three are still dangerous and if UAE and Jumbo end up working together to drop Thomas it’ll spice even more things up.
Nice sense of humor. I think you can also see he’s not bearing the pressure that’s on the top three—he seems more relaxed.
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