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Eeslliw

Sep 29, 2020
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Lmao at people saying that Thomas has this in the bag because he is 26s ahead. That is nothing for a stage like a tomorrow's TT with 5 km of average gradients of 15,3 %. Roglic was just warming up his spinning legs today with the gearing he will use tomorrow. My prediction is Roglic will win the TT and 2nd rider will be more than a minute behind. And yes, I am totaly objective without fanboy glasses :D .
 
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theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
He and his team have no clue how to approach stages in GTs. He's either incapable of assessing his legs in the morning/during the stage or the DSs are flat out clueless. The Tour last year and him being simply the best in 3 Vueltas have papered over a lot of cracks, and even the Tour last year was only Granon and otherwise putting WVA up the road rinse repeat tactic.
Outside of that too many instances where there were pulling way too hard when they shouldn't have or didn't pace when it would've suited them as well as having no idea how to make use of domestiques. It's weird.

Still hoping he has a monster day tomorrow and poetically does a reverse PDBF2020 but it's a big ask and his ITT form this year isnt giving much hopes.
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Okay, armchair quarterback: what exactly would you have done differently this Giro? Which amazing tactic did you have in mind that benefits Roglic, and none of the others? (bear in mind that Roglic has crashed twice, the second time really hard and hasn't been feeling great since)
 
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Unterlenkerfahrend

Unterlenkerfahrend

Jun 11, 2021
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theyoungest said:
Okay, armchair quarterback: what exactly would you have done differently this Giro? Which amazing tactic did you have in mind that benefits Roglic, and none of the others? (bear in mind that Roglic has crashed twice, the second time really hard and hasn't been feeling great since)
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Quickly on top of my head (have to go now):
- Go for the stage on stage 4,7,8, 18, 19. I accept not going for it on Gran Sasso due to crash etc. but they could've easily nuked it into the final climb on stage 8. Instead he started in meh position and still got sepperation from Remco because Bora and Kämna(!) attacked and he benefitted from that. So don't tell me, crash, no legs or whatever.
- Don't pace stage 16 if he doesn't feel it and especially don't do it in that donkey style (Dennis pacing hard the first steep part then dropping before the shellow gradients) the way they did it.
- At least put riders in the break to keep the possibilities of going for an early move. You can't make moves if you don't even try to get these opportunities. You have your whole team doing sightseeing rides while relying on Kuss either way.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
Quickly on top of my head (have to go now):
- Go for the stage on stage 4,7,8, 18, 19. I accept not going for it on Gran Sasso due to crash etc. but they could've easily nuked it into the final climb on stage 8. Instead he started in meh position and still got sepperation from Remco because Bora and Kämna(!) attacked and he benefitted from that. So don't tell me, crash, no legs or whatever.
- Don't pace stage 16 if he doesn't feel it and especially don't do it in that donkey style (Dennis pacing hard the first steep part then dropping before the shellow gradients) the way they did it.
- At least put riders in the break to keep the possibilities of going for an early move. You can't make moves if you don't even try to get these opportunities. You have your whole team doing sightseeing rides while relying on Kuss either way.
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- When you actually have several helpers on a decent level (but no better), rotate them. Dennis and Hessmann should have taken a gruppetto ride yesterday.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

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Feb 20, 2012
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Berniece said:
If Roglic is better than Thomas tomorrow it will still be pretty difficult. It’s not a 26s time gap. By the time they have to climb it’ll be a 40-50s time gap. And that’s a lot to close on someone you haven’t been able to drop for 19 days.
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Only hope is that

1. Roglic felt bad today so Jumbo didnt pace and gave up on trying to get into the break.
2. The fatigue of the end of a 5 hour and 30 minute stage heavily favored Thomas and a rested 40 minute ITT will favor Roglic heavily.

And I agree the false flat section doesn't help. I'd be more hopeful if it was just Plan de Corones or Zoncolan.
 
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bill1109

Jul 19, 2010
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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
He and his team have no clue how to approach stages in GTs. He's either incapable of assessing his legs in the morning/during the stage or the DSs are flat out clueless. The Tour last year and him being simply the best in 3 Vueltas have papered over a lot of cracks, and even the Tour last year was only Granon and otherwise putting WVA up the road rinse repeat tactic.
Outside of that too many instances where there were pulling way too hard when they shouldn't have or didn't pace when it would've suited them as well as having no idea how to make use of domestiques. It's weird.

Still hoping he has a monster day tomorrow and poetically does a reverse PDBF2020 but it's a big ask and his ITT form this year isnt giving much hopes.
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lol..come on...pretty harsh...pretty sure his team and rogla himself know more than you, and i too. they dont know how they will feel in the morning and have that stick into the race...things change. he is either injured or sick too. hoping for tomorrow as well...but he is only human, as much as we want him to do super things.
 
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bNator

bNator

Apr 14, 2021
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theyoungest said:
I'm starting to think that for his PR (at least on this forum) it would have been better if he just went home after that crash. Instead he battles on and he gets punished for it. In the final stretch today he had a pain face that you rarely see on Roglic. The guy is clearly riding more on willpower than on physical fitness.
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I read your comment before I had a chance to watch the stage finish today. Where on earth did you see that? Roglic looked barely tired after crossing the finish line. I’m talking about his facial expression.

I think he had something more in the bag today. He really looked like that to me. His plan must have been to wait and heal another day before going all in tomorrow… I’m not really sure about that last part, but he certainly looked less spent than Thomas - judging just by facial expression
 
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skippo12

May 14, 2017
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JosefK said:
Roglic rode an incredible stage 19, especially considering all that's happened this Giro (crashes, etc.). He put over 20 seconds into the next best GC rider (discounting the anomaly that is Thomas). Well done.
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Honestly...Roglic is a bigger anomaly than Thomas. No matter how bad he looks he always has an amazing kick on the last 200-500m. No clue how he is doing it. Defies the logic of threshold levels and anaerobic efforts.
 
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theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
- At least put riders in the break to keep the possibilities of going for an early move. You can't make moves if you don't even try to get these opportunities. You have your whole team doing sightseeing rides while relying on Kuss either way.
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I have to laugh at this because the last few Tours they've been criticized for letting riders go into moves instead of sticking with Vingegaard. I agree with you (although in the case of this Giro, I don't think it would have made any difference at all).

Roglic rode very defensively at the beginning, and surely he and his team must have been planning to attack in this third week. What they didn't plan for was the crash. Everyone involved in it is already at home, except for Thomas who didn't really crash. It think it took way more out of him than most people think. It takes away a lot of the tactical possibilities, because to attack first you need to have the legs.
 
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Rackham

Rackham

Jul 16, 2015
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Red Rick said:
Only hope is that

1. Roglic felt bad today so Jumbo didnt pace and gave up on trying to get into the break.
2. The fatigue of the end of a 5 hour and 30 minute stage heavily favored Thomas and a rested 40 minute ITT will favor Roglic heavily.

And I agree the false flat section doesn't help. I'd be more hopeful if it was just Plan de Corones or Zoncolan.
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I like the second option, so we'll go with that one.

But sure I'll be honest I've gone from total belief in victory to something like... thinking he has a 15% chance of winning (if I was to give a percentage to his hopes of overturning GC in the ITT).

What gives hope is the 'uniqueness' of the time trial (insane gradients), whilst the big downer is we've seen a few "ooh la la" route designs in recent years which translate into absolutely zero drama & major action. I mean who could have predicted the most mundane climb in France (la Planche) would produce so much drama in 2020? Not many. And the reverse is so often true as well, i.e. when something gets super hyped it often delivers very little.

A couple of things to look out for tomorrow: Rog will give it 100% & more (this is self evident) but we should also be prepared for a slower start compared to Thomas as well. So he could lose a bit on the flat. It's not just because of the flatter road, it's because he often starts slower in ITT's anyway (even in the Olympics, this was true).
 
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JosefK

JosefK

Oct 2, 2020
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I'd be shocked if Rog doesn't lose time to Thomas in the MTT, based on everything Thomas has shown. Rog seems to be overachieving in week 3. I think the second crash was a big setback. Think back to stage 8, before the second crash. Rog had a hard acceleration on the stage 4 climb at the end. Tao was able to come across, but Thomas had to struggle more. Think back to the stage 1 ITT. Thomas lost time to Rog on the final hill. After the crash, Thomas has looked stronger (also stronger than everyone else).
 
Rackham

Rackham

Jul 16, 2015
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acm said:
If he has Tokyo 21' legs tomorrow, anything is possible.
See you on the road, gremo Rogla!
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And 57 seconds as well, never forget. That was the gap back to Pog in 2020.

It would be so perfect like it's written in the stars but life isn't a fairy-tale so I won't get my hopes up. Thomas looked too strong today for that.

But sure, we need to send all the positive vibes & power of support his way tomorrow. Anything is possible.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

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Feb 20, 2012
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skippo12 said:
Honestly...Roglic is a bigger anomaly than Thomas. No matter how bad he looks he always has an amazing kick on the last 200-500m. No clue how he is doing it. Defies the logic of threshold levels and anaerobic efforts.
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Not really.

Roglic actually paces himself in the final 500m. Thomas attacked, got a gap and decided "I'll just pedal as hard as possible now"
 
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