He fell two times. He's hurting. He needs time.
He fell two times. He's hurting. He needs time.
Roglic struggles in really big mountain stages (at altitude) IMHO. We will see how he will perform in Finestre.
But it can't be the falls alone. He has apparently not been explosive at all throughout the Giro. Where he can normally accelerate at the end, etc., he doesn't fight for places and seconds at all. Or when there are attacks in between, he is always behind. He usually comes in at a steady pace and keeps the damage within limits. But his real strength is completely missing. If UAE rode more aggressively, he would be much further back because the team can't help him either.It's hardly a mystery. His coach flat out says they did less training on explosivity, and he crashed twice in the past 72 hours. He says his shoulder hurts, so it's probably not easy to just get out of the drops and do a full STOMP. And let's not pretend he was stomping hard before the crash, even though his first ITT was fire.
He's probably more fine in a TT or on an earlier climb because a long stage affects you more if you're hurting than a 30 minute ITT. Like how he won Olympic Gold a few days after getting 31st 6 minutes down in the road race, or how he got top 10 in the 2021 Tour TT like 2 days before dropping 5 minutes in a long transition stage and dropping down the grupetto one day later. Or how he won the 2023 Giro in the final ITT while he wasn't making really big attacks in the mountain stages.
Most likely he's hurting, and most likely it shows most at the end of hard stages, and at highly explosive efforts.
Maybe this Giro marks the death of Roglstomp and the birth of RogloBasso
Or Basso 2012. Always waiting for Stelvio, to just crack hard after putting your team working all dayIt's hardly a mystery. His coach flat out says they did less training on explosivity, and he crashed twice in the past 72 hours. He says his shoulder hurts, so it's probably not easy to just get out of the drops and do a full STOMP. And let's not pretend he was stomping hard before the crash, even though his first ITT was fire.
He's probably more fine in a TT or on an earlier climb because a long stage affects you more if you're hurting than a 30 minute ITT. Like how he won Olympic Gold a few days after getting 31st 6 minutes down in the road race, or how he got top 10 in the 2021 Tour TT like 2 days before dropping 5 minutes in a long transition stage and dropping down the grupetto one day later. Or how he won the 2023 Giro in the final ITT while he wasn't making really big attacks in the mountain stages.
Most likely he's hurting, and most likely it shows most at the end of hard stages, and at highly explosive efforts.
Maybe this Giro marks the death of Roglstomp and the birth of RogloBasso
He baited his domestiwue into attacking and gaining a GC lead at the Vuelta for the lolz, only to actually lose the race to him and then quit the team because of it.
He baited his domestiwue into attacking and gaining a GC lead at the Vuelta for the lolz, only to actually lose the race to him and then quit the team because of it.
You can be a Roglic fan without closing your eyes to what is really happening. Everyone at the start of the Giro would have said that Roglic should be in front right now even with the Siena stage. Two time trials with him as clearly the best time trialist of the GC guys. Perfect mountain finish for him on the only MTF. That he's back is not where he wants to be quite the opposite. For sure Red Bull and Bora were hoping to make it quickly a 1 one 1 between Ayuso and Roglic. Now there's all kind of problems with the situation Roglic is in. Of course he can win the Giro. Del Toro could have a really bad day and it will be enough to drop Ayuso one time for good to get a minute back. UAE is so much better then the RB team and there are lots of attacking guys still in contention with good allround teams for raids. So the "normal" Roglic tactic of just chilling having a few better and a few not so good days but in the end winning it with a measured effort could just go wrong this time. Could be more the 2019 scenarion with Nibali even if they get UAE down to only one leader.As for current GT, guys you do realise Rogla is still doing the Tour after? We underestimated this effort a bit, a so called Giro-Tour double, it's proving to be rather intense, to say the least, on fandom. Anyway, Rogla IMHO and based on the circumstances is exactly where he needs to be, at this point of the race. Going over San Pellegrino UAE going over with the whole falange, Rogla isolated. For now it likely makes sense to let UAE leaders to sprint for boni seconds, in between them. Starting week 3 and likely before Finestre a (measured) dig at UAE could make sense. We'll see.
You can be a Roglic fan without closing your eyes to what is really happening. Everyone at the start of the Giro would have said that Roglic should be in front right now even with the Siena stage. Two time trials with him as clearly the best time trialist of the GC guys. Perfect mountain finish for him on the only MTF. That he's back is not where he wants to be quite the opposite. For sure Red Bull and Bora were hoping to make it quickly a 1 one 1 between Ayuso and Roglic. Now there's all kind of problems with the situation Roglic is in. Of course he can win the Giro. Del Toro could have a really bad day and it will be enough to drop Ayuso one time for good to get a minute back.
UAE is so much better then the RB team and there are lots of attacking guys still in contention with good allround teams for raids.
So the "normal" Roglic tactic of just chilling having a few better and a few not so good days but in the end winning it with a measured effort could just go wrong this time. Could be more the 2019 scenarion with Nibali even if they get UAE down to only one leader.
As for the Tour...Giro-Tour double sounds like he has any business in winning the Tour which je clearly hasn't but that's another story. The Giro is the one race this year that could deliver a serious victory for Red Bull. if Roglic isn't up for it they will be left with nothing to show for with second biggest budget.
You realize he is using UAE as much as possible until maybe Stage 16? Absolutely no reason to do any hard work until then. Ask Ayuso and Yates about Catalunya. And the first...and second TT. He had a crash and a flat on one gravel novelty stage and he's done?But it can't be the falls alone. He has apparently not been explosive at all throughout the Giro. Where he can normally accelerate at the end, etc., he doesn't fight for places and seconds at all. Or when there are attacks in between, he is always behind. He usually comes in at a steady pace and keeps the damage within limits. But his real strength is completely missing. If UAE rode more aggressively, he would be much further back because the team can't help him either.
He is playing the very long game.
Are you ok ?If organiser wanted for Rogla to sprint more, well, then more sprinter orientated stages should have been added.