Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Oldman]

Aren't you by any chance suggesting long range defence? We'll see.

He will try to win the Giro.
I'm guessing he really wants the Tour and will do what he can not to jeopardize that possibility by showy overexertion. Fans want to see a cageDeath match and, as everyone has noted; forgot to build the cage but for several tough stages.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Are you ok ?

I am fine, thanks for asking.

He will try to win the Giro.
I'm guessing he really wants the Tour and will do what he can not to jeopardize that possibility by showy overexertion. Fans want to see a cageDeath match and, as everyone has noted; forgot to build the cage but for several tough stages.

I am sure that the Tour is put on hold for now and will have to wait.

 

[SomeSome1010]

You realize he is using UAE as much as possible until maybe Stage 16? Absolutely no reason to do any hard work until then. Ask Ayuso and Yates about Catalunya. And the first...and second TT. He had a crash and a flat on one gravel novelty stage and he's done?
He is playing the very long game.

I get your point, but he was sitting weirdly deep both on that previous mountain finish ayuso won and on today's stage 11. I don't think that's reflecting a deliberate choice of playing the long game. He just isn't at 100 % right now. Here's hoping for a strong last week, which is still more likely than not imo.

 

[CyclistAbi]

As for Rogla losing the stomp. I wouldn't delve too much into it, Siena more or less represented the only great opportunity for that, sterrato prevented it from happening. The rest was just more or less lacking, route design or circumstances, like too big bunch. So if the stars align we might still see it in this race, opportunities being rather sparse. Rogla never won a stage at Giro, bar TTs, so who knows, maybe the first one indeed to be some sort of a stomp. We'll see.

 

[red_flanders]

As for Rogla losing the stomp. I wouldn't delve too much into it, Siena more or less represented the only great opportunity for that, sterrato prevented it from happening. The rest was just more or less lacking, route design or circumstances, like too big bunch. So if the stars align we might still see it in this race, opportunities being rather sparse. Rogla never won a stage at Giro, bar TTs, so who knows, maybe the first one indeed to be some sort of a stomp. We'll see.

He could have sprinted today, he was right there, and he could have sprinted on at least one other early stage. There's absolutely been opportunity, but he's simply either choosing to conserve energy or he doesn't have it. Tend to think it's more of the former than the latter, but that's a guess. Probably a bit of both, and like RR says, the crashes can't be helping.

Personally I think he's riding a very conservative race due to his relative team strength versus UAE. To win, he's best served by making moves which don't put his team in the crosshairs. That means attacking later in the race, so his team doesn't have to defend. He's very smart, experienced, and calculating. I think he's saving every bit of powder he has for the last couple of stages, and then he's going to go for it. It's risky, but he's not so much stronger that he has a lot of other options, given relative team strength. We know he's on great form from the TT's and from seeing how easily he's staying with the leading groups.

 

[VeloMaster]

To win, he's best served by making moves which don't put his team in the crosshairs. That means attacking later in the race, so his team doesn't have to defend. He's very smart, experienced, and calculating. I think he's saving every bit of powder he has for the last couple of stages, and then he's going to go for it.

Absolutely. Given the imbalance in team strength, his best approach is to leave it until late, so UAE would have little or no time to regroup and make up any lost time.

After all, he did win the Giro before at virtually the last minute. This time, it makes even more tactical sense.

 

[Oldman]

I get your point, but he was sitting weirdly deep both on that previous mountain finish ayuso won and on today's stage 11. I don't think that's reflecting a deliberate choice of playing the long game. He just isn't at 100 % right now. Here's hoping for a strong last week, which is still more likely than not imo.

There are a few things going on here. First: he doesn't need to crash and have injuries add limitation to his and Bora's serious goals. When Ayuso went, it was around a bend and UAE guys screened the attack: Primoz's mistake for not being in that tight mix of guys. As it played out, he barely exerted himself to bridge to the second group and it worked as he and RB would have wanted. The optics might have been alarming to fans expecting him to slug out sprints; but it's not time for that yet. It wasn't today, either.

Bora is operating without their legitimate, strong #2 guy who crashed out. The others appear to be underprepared for week 1. Jai Hindley would've been in the GC mix requiring strategic attention from UAE and others. Not to mention he was one of the guys that could pace a climb leadout until Primoz moved and almost no one would be on his wheel. That asset is not in play. Time to adjust.

If you're the DS you have to strategize with the assets remaining. Primoz is doing his bit and not closing out on these minor time advances as he needs UAE to take pack responsibility. UAE knows that, but don't really know what will come. The last TT Primoz rode very conservatively after warmup showed the course/conditions limitations he should observe. He did that and he beat every GC guy that counted. Now UAE has to consider who is their chosen lead assailant and what happens when PR is in a move with them? Is he hurt?
Every other team is in opportunity mode and who does UAE respond to? Carapaz is now fired up.
Bora's strategy is pragmatic with the talent left. It's their job to make the most of it.

As the Icon, Pogacar is uniquely intimidating to everyone. Would he be that guy if his top climbing support was gone, early in week 1 of a GT? UAE can't count on him. No other team really matters to Bora at this point. See everyone in week 3.

PS: posted this after the same observations all. It doesn't matter strategically whether he's weakened by efforts to date or playing weak. Both give the team time to respond later. Or not: it's likely to get crazy.

 

[Rackham]

He could have sprinted today, he was right there, and he could have sprinted on at least one other early stage. There's absolutely been opportunity, but he's simply either choosing to conserve energy or he doesn't have it. Tend to think it's more of the former than the latter, but that's a guess. Probably a bit of both, and like RR says, the crashes can't be helping.

Personally I think he's riding a very conservative race due to his relative team strength versus UAE. To win, he's best served by making moves which don't put his team in the crosshairs. That means attacking later in the race, so his team doesn't have to defend. He's very smart, experienced, and calculating. I think he's saving every bit of powder he has for the last couple of stages, and then he's going to go for it. It's risky, but he's not so much stronger that he has a lot of other options, given relative team strength. We know he's on great form from the TT's and from seeing how easily he's staying with the leading groups.

His crashes are an interesting aspect that play into the 'mystery man' aspect of his performances and persona IMO.

It means there's no real rhyme or rhythm that can be extracted from his physical condition when it comes to how he rides after a crash or without a crash. I mean he was what I'd call 'mushy' and didn't sprint of Friday against Ayuso when he hadn't crashed and on paper he was expected to perform. Then there's instances when he does crash and the next day he drops the hammer. He unreadable as a rider and that gets into the heads of his rivals and their DS's.

What I've deduced from 7/8 years of following this guy is despite having a really high baseline, he's really only ever a step away from having another 2018 TdF ITT at the most inopportune moment for absolutely no apparent reason... whilst the reverse (like smashing the Olympics ITT out of nowhere or turning on the afterburners on a col) is also a real distinct possibility at any moment.

It's partially what makes Rog an exciting rider to follow. He's predictable and unpredictable at the same time. Washed and unwashed. One day the GOAT, next day hanging on for dear life on WvA's's wheel after getting dropped by Simon Yates in 2022 Paris-Nice, for example.

I can sit here and project my hopes and wishes onto the final week of this Giro but really, I have no idea what's going to happen here. He's totally capable of flopping horribly on Finestre and being totally washed beyond washed in everyone's eyes after this Giro... and then inexplicably holding Pog's wheel on a long hard multi-col stage in the TdF in July when everyone else gets dropped.

 

[Gargamel35]

He CRASHED 2 times in last three days. He probably carries deep tissue damage on his hip, butt and shoulder. It hurts like hell on long stages and is very uncomfortable. And you people expect him to sprint for stupid seconds, be at front and fight with UAE train all the time? Well, newsflash, he can't. And UAE is stupid not to take advantage of it more (or they simply can't either). If he gets through this week and maybe injuries get better, last week could be fireworks. Can i push you off the bike two times at high speed and then put you on for an easy GT 160km ride with heavy climbs the next day? No? Shut up then.

He said after Giro he won, injuries from the crash there were way worse than they admitted and he couldn't ride normally at all until basically the last stage when injuries got better a bit.

 

[dazaau]

He CRASHED 2 times in last three days. He probably carries deep tissue damage on his hip, butt and shoulder. It hurts like hell on long stages and is very uncomfortable. And you people expect him to sprint for stupid seconds, be at front and fight with UAE train all the time? Well, newsflash, he can't. And UAE is stupid not to take advantage of it more (or they simply can't either). If he gets through this week and maybe injuries get better, last week could be fireworks. Can i push you off the bike two times at high speed and then put you on for an easy GT 160km ride with heavy climbs the next day? No? Shut up then.

He said after Giro he won, injuries from the crash there were way worse than they admitted and he couldn't ride normally at all until basically the last stage when injuries got better a bit.

I have no idea how pros do it. Whenever I have come off my bike, the damage may be superficial but it is brutal and debilitating.

Roglic is amazing for his ability to suffer and we kind of get used it but it's not normal and can't expect him to beat everyone else when injured.

 

[Gargamel35]

What i hate about him is, that he actually can't finish a GT without a fall, or even two. Just come ready and do it without falling (in Giro or Tour). Oh well.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I don't believe Roglic will win this Giro. These monster climbs in the Giro are not tailormade for him, he prefers "small" climbs at low altitude (but very steep) to make the difference. This is why he is so successful in the Vuelta and not so much in other GTs.

 

[bNator]

Yesterday after Pellegrino there were 8 UAE guys and 2 RBH guys with 4 UAE guys having a shot at winning this Giro. If Roglic gets pink or even is perceived as a huge threat, he will be annihalated by them. There's just too many UAE guys he needs to cover on too many breakaway-friendly stages with virtually no team (bar Pellizzari) to count on. The only way he wins this Giro is if UAE keep status quo in their internal GC ranking and Roglic attacks them on Finestre.

Not saying he has the capacity to get pink earlier (or at all) because we really can't tell what form he's on but assuming he's on good form, I don't expect him to do anything before Finestre.

 

[Cycling111]

He will try to win the Giro.
I'm guessing he really wants the Tour and will do what he can not to jeopardize that possibility by showy overexertion. Fans want to see a cageDeath match and, as everyone has noted; forgot to build the cage but for several tough stages.

For Roglic have a chance at the Tour, he would've to be significantly superior to these rivals in this Giro from day 1 to day 21.

During the days he was on the Tour 2024, he was more rival of Remco than rival for Vingegaard and Pogacar.

Roglic knows this. Roglic knew that Pogacar was far superior to him, and that's why in Zurich he offered to be his domestique.

Roglic is a veteran rider. He knows that in the Tour, he's far behind the two favorites.
The decisions he is making during the Giro are due to the circumstances of the Giro, not because he's thinking about the Tour.

 

[CyclistAbi]

He could have sprinted today, he was right there, and he could have sprinted on at least one other early stage. There's absolutely been opportunity, but he's simply either choosing to conserve energy or he doesn't have it. Tend to think it's more of the former than the latter, but that's a guess. Probably a bit of both, and like RR says, the crashes can't be helping.

Personally I think he's riding a very conservative race due to his relative team strength versus UAE. To win, he's best served by making moves which don't put his team in the crosshairs. That means attacking later in the race, so his team doesn't have to defend. He's very smart, experienced, and calculating. I think he's saving every bit of powder he has for the last couple of stages, and then he's going to go for it. It's risky, but he's not so much stronger that he has a lot of other options, given relative team strength. We know he's on great form from the TT's and from seeing how easily he's staying with the leading groups.

He could have sprinted, that much is true, but still this was not a proper stomp terrain. And besides, Rogla can't win this Giro edition anymore, by sprinting.

 

[CyclistAbi]

What i hate about him is, that he actually can't finish a GT without a fall, or even two. Just come ready and do it without falling (in Giro or Tour). Oh well.

Signature move.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't believe Roglic will win this Giro. These monster climbs in the Giro are not tailormade for him, he prefers "small" climbs at low altitude (but very steep) to make the difference. This is why he is so successful in the Vuelta and not so much in other GTs.

AFAIK you don't believe Rogla will finish top 5 at the Tour either. So if nothing else, Rogla can at least restore your faith, that is something too.

 

[Berniece]

Yesterday after Pellegrino there were 8 UAE guys and 2 RBH guys with 4 UAE guys having a shot at winning this Giro. If Roglic gets pink or even is perceived as a huge threat, he will be annihalated by them. There's just too many UAE guys he needs to cover on too many breakaway-friendly stages with virtually no team (bar Pellizzari) to count on. The only way he wins this Giro is if UAE keep status quo in their internal GC ranking and Roglic attacks them on Finestre.

I don't think there are 4 UAE guys having a shot, based on how they are riding really only two. But I agree the best chance for Roglic is that UAE doesn't try to increase their gap and keeps being fine with the current standing. And he only needs 1 stage to take that jersey and destroy them.

I really hope this happens, shows how tactically dumb UAE have been riding.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Yesterday after Pellegrino there were 8 UAE guys and 2 RBH guys with 4 UAE guys having a shot at winning this Giro. If Roglic gets pink or even is perceived as a huge threat, he will be annihalated by them. There's just too many UAE guys he needs to cover on too many breakaway-friendly stages with virtually no team (bar Pellizzari) to count on. The only way he wins this Giro is if UAE keep status quo in their internal GC ranking and Roglic attacks them on Finestre.

Not saying he has the capacity to get pink earlier (or at all) because we really can't tell what form he's on but assuming he's on good form, I don't expect him to do anything before Finestre.

*3 RBH guys (Aleotti)

 

[Gargamel35]

For Roglic have a chance at the Tour, he would've to be significantly superior to these rivals in this Giro from day 1 to day 21.

During the days he was on the Tour 2024, he was more rival of Remco than rival for Vingegaard and Pogacar.

Roglic knows this. Roglic knew that Pogacar was far superior to him, and that's why in Zurich he offered to be his domestique.

Roglic is a veteran rider. He knows that in the Tour, he's far behind the two favorites.
The decisions he is making during the Giro are due to the circumstances of the Giro, not because he's thinking about the Tour.

Roglič can fight for podium spot on Tour. Or at least to finish it on his own terms (and without a fall). As long he can fight for podium (3rd), there is always a chance that top 2 cancel each other out (illness, fall, explosion, DNF, weather,...) and Roglič comes out on top. Chances for that are really slim, but never zero.

 

[CyclistAbi]

At the Tour, sprinting likely won't win that race either. At Giro marking Ayuso, that is likely current plan A. If Ayuso sprints, then Rogla does respond. Otherwise indeed best if del Toro takes it.

 

[Cycling111]

Roglic was in this position the day before his crash and retirement in the TDF.
Debido a algunos comentarios, a veces parece olvidarse que Roglic participó en el TDF 2024 y que no estaba al mismo nivel que los dos primeros en las etapas de montaña.
The day of his first crash, he was with Remco.

Seeing this, Roglic can't ride a Giro thinking about winning the Tour. He's riding the Giro thinking about winning the Giro, because otherwise, he could be left without winning either of them. He has to secure the Giro.
If Roglic acts like this these days, it's because he's not strong or because it's the best thing for the Giro. Not because he was thinking about the Tour and spending less watts yesterday he´ll win TDF.

If he could win the Tour, he should be far superior every day. Neither Ayuso nor Tiberi nor the Yates would´ve to do anything against Vingegaard and Pogacar.

1	1	-	POGAČAR Tadej	Equipo Emirates de los EAU	25	32″	45:00:34
2	2	-	EVENEPOEL Remco	Soudal Quick-Step		14″	1:06
3	3	-	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Equipo Visma | Alquila una bicicleta		20″	1:14
4	4	-	ROGLIC Primož	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe			2:15

 

[Berniece]

Roglic was in this position the day before his crash and retirement in the TDF.
Debido a algunos comentarios, a veces parece olvidarse que Roglic participó en el TDF 2024 y que no estaba al mismo nivel que los dos primeros en las etapas de montaña.
The day of his first crash, he was with Remco.

Why is a part of your comment in Spanish/Portugese?

 

[bNator]

I don't think there are 4 UAE guys having a shot, based on how they are riding really only two. But I agree the best chance for Roglic is that UAE doesn't try to increase their gap and keeps being fine with the current standing. And he only needs 1 stage to take that jersey and destroy them.

I really hope this happens, shows how tactically dumb UAE have been riding.

What I meant was there are 4 guys Roglic needs to cover at this point. I don't think he can gamble and let Yates or McNulty go and get 5 minutes on him. And I'm not sure Pellizzari can control these two guys by himself...

 

[fenns]

Let's face it only way he wins the Tour is if Pogacar and Vingegaard don't make it to Paris. I could see him getting 3rd though ahead of Remco.