icefire said:
The 2010 giro was not only made by the parcours. That giro was driven by the singularity that was the 13 minutes gift given to 50 riders in the stage to L'Aquila, and that was made by the weather, Vino not willing to defend the pink jersey and other contenders not willing to chase. Weather and crashes also played as much as the parcours in Montalcino. Without those stages, 2010 could have been like 2012.
I can't see how a race organiser can plan for that in the parcours.
Make the course hard and most importantly, varied enough. The Strade Bianche gives one sort of rider a chance, medium mountain stages where breakaways can succeed will give an outsider a chance (in this case a lot of) to move up and surprise. You can't guarantee entertainment, but you can at least give the riders the conditions. Mind you, the 2012 Giro parcours reception was a mixed back as well.
In this Vuelta, it's not possible, because everything is flat and the same before the last climb. No chance for a dark horse to surprise before the last climb. Now, I think this Vuelta will be very interesting, because of the level of competition, but we won't see surprises. We will just see the strongest riders battling for seconds uphill (or arriving in a group). No chance for tactical riders to make a difference before that (apart from one or two stages).
For example, what was one of the (in my opinion) best stages in the Tour this year with a breakout performance of a future star? Stage 8, winner Thibaut Pinot. In this Vuelta, there is simply no such stage to make it happen.