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Re: Re:
I don't think so...not if he really goes for it in the Tour. If Nibbes skips the Tour than he'd be able to beat a "tour tired" Aru at the Vuelta. If someone from the Tour went onto win the Vuelta I'd say AC is the most likely to do that. A tired Aru can't beat a tired AC imo.
Edit: Totally forgot - riders from the Giro like Landa could definitely beat Aru at the Vuelta.
Rollthedice said:
I don't think so...not if he really goes for it in the Tour. If Nibbes skips the Tour than he'd be able to beat a "tour tired" Aru at the Vuelta. If someone from the Tour went onto win the Vuelta I'd say AC is the most likely to do that. A tired Aru can't beat a tired AC imo.
Edit: Totally forgot - riders from the Giro like Landa could definitely beat Aru at the Vuelta.
But question is if Nibali and Landa (probably the only two who stands a chance of winning the Vuelta after Giro) does the Tour. Both has been rumored or at least spoken about in here. I could see at least one of those helping Aru/Froome in France.
If Aru does the Vuelta after the Tour, I cant see him winning, but he has shown he can do 2 GT's on a very high level. But Giro/Vuelta is drastically different to Tour/Vuelta in terms of recovery time and the ladder is obviously much harder to pull of.
Rosa? I dont think so. We shouldnt get ahead of ourselves and he can be expected to come to the Tour at 100% as Aru and even tho he doesnt ride GC in France, it's still a lot of wear and tear and I just dont simply thinks he is capable of that as of right now. But since the Vuelta clearly is the least important race for Astana, I dont think it will be much of a problem if say Nibali does Giro/Tour and Aru either decides to skip Vuelta or simply is tired after the Tour.
If Aru does the Vuelta after the Tour, I cant see him winning, but he has shown he can do 2 GT's on a very high level. But Giro/Vuelta is drastically different to Tour/Vuelta in terms of recovery time and the ladder is obviously much harder to pull of.
Rosa? I dont think so. We shouldnt get ahead of ourselves and he can be expected to come to the Tour at 100% as Aru and even tho he doesnt ride GC in France, it's still a lot of wear and tear and I just dont simply thinks he is capable of that as of right now. But since the Vuelta clearly is the least important race for Astana, I dont think it will be much of a problem if say Nibali does Giro/Tour and Aru either decides to skip Vuelta or simply is tired after the Tour.
Re: Re:
I just have the feeling that Aru is simply not good enough yet to win against Froome, Quintana and Contador. Aru also might have the problem that there are exactly 3 riders who should be better than him, because that would mean no podium. But hey, maybe he will surprise me and will take a podium or even a win (very very unlikely, but I still not impossible)
Tbh Nibali's shape in this years tour was horrible. Nibali in his 2014 shape might have been a danger for Froome.SeriousSam said:
I just have the feeling that Aru is simply not good enough yet to win against Froome, Quintana and Contador. Aru also might have the problem that there are exactly 3 riders who should be better than him, because that would mean no podium. But hey, maybe he will surprise me and will take a podium or even a win (very very unlikely, but I still not impossible)
Aru and Astana are going to blow the tour apart. There will be no" to scared to attack movie/Quintana tactics". He will attack.
Froome will be gone in the last week.
Quintana will have to step up and Bertie will have to be in top shape.
Aru/Astana will shock you all, he's the best thing to happen to the tour.
Froome will be gone in the last week.
Quintana will have to step up and Bertie will have to be in top shape.
Aru/Astana will shock you all, he's the best thing to happen to the tour.
Re:
Froome maybe had problems in the last week of the tour but he was still the second best climber. We shouldnt forget that when everyone says that he will be gone then. Moreover attacking only works when you are strong enough, otherwise it doesnt make sense, and if froome is clearly stronger than aru and has a classical team sky team support, even Aru's team wont make such a big difference.ray j willings said:
Froome this year got the peak too early in the Dauphine, this is the reason of his third week form drop.
I guess that next year he will change the approach to reach the peak at the beginning of the Tour, also because he will focus the Olympics after the Tour.
I guess that next year he will change the approach to reach the peak at the beginning of the Tour, also because he will focus the Olympics after the Tour.
Re:
All is nice and great but the guy who finally cracked the new sensation in climbing, Tom Dumoulin and prevented Aru to finish second fiddle to the aforementioned GT monster in Vuelta, namely Mr. Michael Landa will ride for Vroome. Our Sardinian lad has to step up big time and get some extensive wind tunnel time cause I'm sure Vroomey will show his Indurain side in the expected looong ITT.
ray j willings said:
All is nice and great but the guy who finally cracked the new sensation in climbing, Tom Dumoulin and prevented Aru to finish second fiddle to the aforementioned GT monster in Vuelta, namely Mr. Michael Landa will ride for Vroome. Our Sardinian lad has to step up big time and get some extensive wind tunnel time cause I'm sure Vroomey will show his Indurain side in the expected looong ITT.
Re: Re:
I think Aru can put froome into trouble in climbs, Quintana is scared to attack he is strong but it does not matter when he do not know how to race
and Froome definitelly was not 2nd best climber in last weak, Nibali and Quintana were far better
I think Aru can put froome into trouble in climbs, Quintana is scared to attack he is strong but it does not matter when he do not know how to race
and Froome definitelly was not 2nd best climber in last weak, Nibali and Quintana were far better
I'm hoping to see an alliance between Aru and Contador at the Tour, to attack the hell out of the race. Both will want to win for themselves, but we've already seen that when AC can't win, he's not above an audacious move that selects who will not win the Tour. If it's AC's last year, and he finds that he can't win, I can see him making sure Froome doesn't win either.
There's every chance that too many attacks will blow Aru up instead, but I'd at least like to see them both try. Hopefully they both come in to the race in great form, no injuries, with strong teammates, ready to roll.
There's every chance that too many attacks will blow Aru up instead, but I'd at least like to see them both try. Hopefully they both come in to the race in great form, no injuries, with strong teammates, ready to roll.
Re: Re:
Never gonna happen, unless Froome goes down in the 3rd week as usual. It also depends on the situation, because I dont think that Aru will risk a podium spot, if he isn't very close to winning.
He'll rather defend his 3rd place than attack for 1st, unless he's -1:00 min from victory of course.
bassano said:
Never gonna happen, unless Froome goes down in the 3rd week as usual. It also depends on the situation, because I dont think that Aru will risk a podium spot, if he isn't very close to winning.
He'll rather defend his 3rd place than attack for 1st, unless he's -1:00 min from victory of course.
Re: Re:
Not really sure with the Tour in general with its less steep inclines but more grinding pace making. Sky train is really good at keeping Froome at his optimal wattage which taxes everyone else. That's when Froome's 600-800 watt attacks distance him from everyone except perhaps a very top-shape Contador. Aru fill find few opportunities to exert his strength without either blowing himself up by getting caught with the train and/or he will already have been dropped and so racing for 3 - 5 place.
bassano said:
Not really sure with the Tour in general with its less steep inclines but more grinding pace making. Sky train is really good at keeping Froome at his optimal wattage which taxes everyone else. That's when Froome's 600-800 watt attacks distance him from everyone except perhaps a very top-shape Contador. Aru fill find few opportunities to exert his strength without either blowing himself up by getting caught with the train and/or he will already have been dropped and so racing for 3 - 5 place.
Today
Fabio Aru at his home town Villacidro in Sardinia is doing a charity ride PedalAru, it started at 09.30; at 10.15 a pedalata with the kids. After that with the grown ups until 13.00 when there is lunch with Fabio!
http://www.gazzetta.it/Ciclismo/14-10-2015/fabio-aru-pedalaru-villacidro-manifestazione-pedalata-pranzo-130497338300.shtml
Aru still not ready to win the Tour, but he definitely has got podium chances. And then who knows... when you are there, anything can happen.
But he must step up big time in his TT skills. You are never gonna win the Tour with poor TT performances, unless your name is Pantani and you can put minutes on your opponents in the mountains. Not Aru's case.
But he must step up big time in his TT skills. You are never gonna win the Tour with poor TT performances, unless your name is Pantani and you can put minutes on your opponents in the mountains. Not Aru's case.
Aru will get owned at the Tour all being equal, he's not at the same level as Froome, Quintana and maybe a fading Contador, don't get me wrong he's quality but others are better right now. Astana and His Royal Highness Vino have made a mistake not sending Aru to the Giro
Re:
Maybe they don't trust Nibbes to win? Perhaps they want to see how their rising star will do against the big 3. Obviously they're better than him right now, but eventually he's going to have to face them.
StryderHells said:
Maybe they don't trust Nibbes to win? Perhaps they want to see how their rising star will do against the big 3. Obviously they're better than him right now, but eventually he's going to have to face them.
Aru is not better than Nibali, let alone Froome, Quintana, or Contador. At his strongest this year, he wasn't better than Landa either. The only way he's ever going to win the Tour is in the same way that Nibali won it last year.
Re:
Like Sastre, Pereiro or Schleck?
or like this year where TT really did not matter
quite ridiculous statement
It is quite funny how you value their desicion, they have like 10 another quite better explanations why they do that, like maybe Nibali did not want to go for tour battle because of olympics or they want to try Aru there, he is improving a lot and probably he will not win it but I remember like dozen of people here said he will not win Vuelta and how he was never able to beat froome or Quintana and just look how Froome or Quintana finished there
next year can be even better for Aru
huge said:
Like Sastre, Pereiro or Schleck?
or like this year where TT really did not matter
quite ridiculous statement
StryderHells said:
It is quite funny how you value their desicion, they have like 10 another quite better explanations why they do that, like maybe Nibali did not want to go for tour battle because of olympics or they want to try Aru there, he is improving a lot and probably he will not win it but I remember like dozen of people here said he will not win Vuelta and how he was never able to beat froome or Quintana and just look how Froome or Quintana finished there
next year can be even better for Aru
Re:
He is young. He can improve. Nibbes most likely won't reach a higher level of fitness.
AlexNYC said:
He is young. He can improve. Nibbes most likely won't reach a higher level of fitness.
Re:
It is a natural progression that a team with a very promising grand tour rider will eventually enter him in the Tour after he's shown his worth in the Giro and/or Vuelta. He may not be the favorite, but he will be there to test the waters to add to his growth as a professional. They won't know how he reacts to the pressure that comes with riding the Tour as the team's leader until they toss him in to see if he can swim.
AlexNYC said:
It is a natural progression that a team with a very promising grand tour rider will eventually enter him in the Tour after he's shown his worth in the Giro and/or Vuelta. He may not be the favorite, but he will be there to test the waters to add to his growth as a professional. They won't know how he reacts to the pressure that comes with riding the Tour as the team's leader until they toss him in to see if he can swim.
Re: Re:
Pereiro and Schleck didn't win it, they just inherited a statistic.
Sastre was 10th in the TT just 2 minutes behind Cancellara over 53kms. That's not a poor TT performance, it's very good
bassano said:
Pereiro and Schleck didn't win it, they just inherited a statistic.
Sastre was 10th in the TT just 2 minutes behind Cancellara over 53kms. That's not a poor TT performance, it's very good
Re: Re:
I don't agree with the last part, young Italian riders already have to learn how to handle pressure when they ride the Giro as a leader and he has already won the Vuelta. Nobody expects him to win the Tour, so pressure shouldn't be a problem.Angliru said:
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