Fatigued = less Doping?

[Ferminal]

It doesn't matter much if the favorites attack outside the kite or not, if someone is at the front of the peloton drilling the pace on a climb it'll fatigue everyone. Keep the pace high and no one can attack.

Total race times have varied between 4:35 and 4:52 for the past 6 years. Not surprisingly, the slowest race resulted in the fastest time on the Mur and the fastest race resulted in the slowest time on the Mur. Race dynamics mater.

What a great correlation...

 

[42x16ss]

Froome finished 4th. not exactly fried. aside from that, I really hope the fatigue is due to less drugs. More likely, just different drugs, or perhaps more people on the new drugs?

4th looks good when you only take the result into account. He was miles off his July form and was outclimbed by Quintana and Moreno. Froome was nowhere near the podium.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

What a great correlation...

You're mixing units on axes!!

I'm guessing an r^2 of sweet FA.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Mur de Huy
2013:1 km@11,1%---2:48---average speed 21.43 km/h(Daniel Moreno)
2012:1 km@11,1%---3:00---average speed 20.00 km/h(Joaquim Rodriguez)
2011:1 km@11,1%---2:44---average speed 21.95 km/h(Philippe Gilbert)-RECORD
2010:1 km@11,1%---2:45---average speed 21.82 km/h(Evans-Rodriguez-Contador)
2009:1 km@11,1%---2:46---average speed 21.67 km/h(Davide Rebellin)
2008:1 km@11,1%---3:02---average speed 19.78 km/h(Kim Kirchen)

Doesnt look like everyone stopped doping in 2008 to me.

I guess you had a wind gauge out there on the Mur every year since 2008 and put that data into your uber mad skillz cycling velocity doping calculator?


edit: wtf? There was no insult in my post. Did big brother censor comments that generalise in a comic manner about the nature of the posts made within the forum? Yes he did.... freedom of opinion which runs contrary to the prevailing forum viewpoint is censored by a strongly biased moderator and thus the clinic sinks to a new low. Sittingbison could do well editing a state sponsored political program in some fair and balanced nation such as North Korea .

 

[42x16ss]

You're mixing units on axes!!

I'm guessing an r^2 of sweet FA.

If you ignore 2012 (slow race and Muur) and 2004 (fast race and Muur) then it does show a loose trend - the faster the race, the slower the Muur.

 

[will10]

This is the first time i think top riders are citing fatigue as a reason for drop in form and to rest.
Cancellara - Got fatigued after Paris Roubaix so much that he is not in Giro
Contador - Tired so much skipped Amstel, didn't have legs in Fleche.
Sagan - Skipped Roubaix unable to meet expectations in Ardennes. feeling heat effects.
Gilbert - Skipped Roubaix. No more triple. Will be fortunate if he wins one Ardennes Classics
Porte - Dropped in Fleche.
Other examples?
There appears to be a pattern here. Usually they would be participating in every race and winning some of them. But based on the results so far, it looks like the top riders have become more human that they are getting beaten by the second level of riders. Does this equate to less doping? I suspect this to be the fallout of the USADA ruling that nobody is trusting anyone else with their secrets thereby having less opportunity to dope. Hence this appears to be more or less the natural state of the riders which means they can't win everything and are getting tired. I suspect a surprise again for Liege.

I enjoyed this quote from the cancellara article:

“He was advised to rest for fourteen days by the doctor so the Giro d’Italia is as good as excluded,” he said.

It's not so long ago that being told to rest for fourteen days meant something very different

 

[Dear Wiggo]

If you ignore 2012 (slow race and Muur) and 2004 (fast race and Muur) then it does show a loose trend - the faster the race, the slower the Muur.

Too loose for my liking. Although truncating axes values can be deceiving, although common sense says there's pretty concrete limits to upper and lower speeds in a pro bike race.

And considering the discussion is doping-based old, dirty peloton vs new, clean peloton, if anything I'd be saying: no change.

 

[42x16ss]

Too loose for my liking. Although truncating axes values can be deceiving, although common sense says there's pretty concrete limits to upper and lower speeds in a pro bike race.

And considering the discussion is doping-based old, dirty peloton vs new, clean peloton, if anything I'd be saying: no change.

Even compared to 2004?

 

[Ferminal]

If you ignore 2012 (slow race and Muur) and 2004 (fast race and Muur) then it does show a loose trend - the faster the race, the slower the Muur.

There are 6 all within 2.5% (4") of one another across an average speed of 40.9 - 44.2 (42.5 sans 2004). There is no way such a small deviation can be explained by the overall race speed (or indeed be explained by anything). Also this season we have seen the average speed in classics for the first couple of hours around 48-50kmh, here in Fleche we get a break going early and taking 10 minutes. High average speed in the first half of the race isn't going to hurt any of the favourites but can make the overall look completely different.

I actually agree that you need to take how the race unfolded into account, but just not so much in this case. Recent years you have a group of 50+ riding to the final, the favourites never ride on the front and have teammates protecting them all the way, there are never any accelerations from the favourites on the lead-in climbs. Last time I remember something remotely interesting amongst the favourites was 2010 when the 2nd time over Mur de Huy there was a split of 10-20 with solid names like Frank Schleck but I don't think any favourites worked too hard and it was all over within minutes.

Of course one 3 minute climb means very little in a performance/doping context, you will not see me arguing the Rodriguez was clean because he was one of the slowest

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Even compared to 2004?

I'd want to be comparing conditions before jumping into analysis. A quick look at the 2004 race report (http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/springclassics04/flechewallonne04/?id=results) indicates a SW wind, and the first hour was 48.7km/hr.

Looking at the live report (http://www.cyclingnews.com/la-fleche-wallonne/live-report) from this year's race, it looks like they averaged 35km/hr in the first hour?

12:00:33 CEST
The race has indeed officially started, but with only 196 riders. Daniele Pietropolli of team Lampre-Merida did not take to the start.

13:06:45 CEST 170km remaining from 205km

ETA: or maybe not - their report is very inconsistent wrt km markers.

 

[Ferminal]

14:09 - Average speed, 43.5km/h

The front three riders have covered 87 kilometres during the first two hours of racing. Average speed after two hours of racing: 43.5 km/h

That is when they had a gap of around 8 minutes.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

14:09 - Average speed, 43.5km/h

The front three riders have covered 87 kilometres during the first two hours of racing. Average speed after two hours of racing: 43.5 km/h

That is when they had a gap of around 8 minutes.

Thanks.

SRM files from mid-pack and top 5 would be more useful than average speed and times up a climb.

 

[42x16ss]

Thanks.

SRM files from mid-pack and top 5 would be more useful than average speed and times up a climb.

True, there's too many variables to go off results and times alone.

 

[Ripper]

Of FFS!

I don't think anyone sane would argue there is less intensive doping than in years past. Folks are not hitting the brakes when riding up switchbacks or getting up in the middle of the night so they don't die from PED abuse.

However, there is good reason to believe there is still considerable doping. It is just not as full *** as it once was.

But yes, folks are looking more human than a decade ago, when it was basically a farce.

 

[will10]

Thanks.

SRM files from mid-pack and top 5 would be more useful than average speed and times up a climb.

I don't think looking at the first hour is useful. Sometimes the first move to go is the BOTD, sometimes it takes 2hrs for a group to get the go ahead. Particularly in the 3rd week of GTs on "obvious" breakaway days, every man and his dog want to be in the break, and no-one wants to miss it. It's not that unusual to see the first 90 mins @ 50kph on a stage where the bunch takes it "easy" and comes in 20 minutes behind a group of ten.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I don't think looking at the first hour is useful. Sometimes the first move to go is the BOTD, sometimes it takes 2hrs for a group to get the go ahead. Particularly in the 3rd week of GTs on "obvious" breakaway days, every man and his dog want to be in the break, and no-one wants to miss it. It's not that unusual to see the first 90 mins @ 50kph on a stage where the bunch takes it "easy" and comes in 20 minutes behind a group of ten.

Cold not agree more. Which is why, in the post you quoted, I said an SRM file of the race from different riders in the race, would be more valuable / useful.