FIFA World Cup 2014

[Arredondo]

well, most people outside holland only know rvp, robben and sneijder of the dutch team

it's eredivisie+ that won against spain.. which is so bizar considering how weak the eredivisie is these days.

De Vrij and Blind for example have played decent till good in their matches for the Dutch squad. So it doesn't really matter that the Eredivisie sucks big time.

There are so many squads at this WC who have weak points.

 

[Flamin]

For the first time the Dutch don't expect to become world champion, they beat Spain with frickin 5-1, epic which might be just the reason why they won: no/little pressure...

 

[Arredondo]

For the first time the Dutch don't expect to become world champion, they beat Spain with frickin 5-1, epic which might be just the reason why they won: no/little pressure...

In 2010 a lot of people expected we would become WC, and whe came quite close, didn't we?

 

[MBotero]

[/IMG]

Fix this !

 

[ILovecycling]

$300 on a 13-1 multi... Thank you very much

Hi Sep,how do you fix matches so easily?hehe

well, most people outside holland only know rvp, robben and sneijder of the dutch team

it's eredivisie+ that won against spain.. which is so bizar considering how weak the eredivisie is these days.

I dont think so,football is very popular worldwide,as for me Im not too much into fooball but I know yesterday starting line-up except two defenders.

 

[Descender]

[/IMG]

Fix this !

I've grown to appreciate Marca. If you take it for what it is: a full-blown tabloid, only with sport as a topic specifically, it is hilarious.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I am surprised. Official game stats have NL with only 13 shots (11 on target), while Spain had 9 (6 on target).

http://resources.fifa.com/mm/docume.../02/37/02/48/eng_03_0613_esp-ned_fulltime.pdf

Not that big difference, and there were offensive onslaughts in past World Cups with teams having 20 or more shots not vs cannon fodder opponents, but quality ones.

So everybody cools down, Casillas had a major share of this game being high scored (only 5 saves of 10 on target (the other save was by Ramos). Most of the saves coming from shots right onto his body).

What stands out is that NL was very precise. All 13 shots hitting the target (I assume/it seems like shots hitting the bars are not officially counted as on-target. Me I would count them on target.)

Van Persie for example is counted with 4 shots, 3 on target. We know he scored twice, one shot was saved, one hit the bar. Thus, I would count that as all on target.

Now some could argue that the official scorers of Fifa are "blind", thus "forgot" to score more shots for NL and Spain. But they are not. Other sources have roughly same stats. See here;
https://de.eurosport.yahoo.com/fussball/wm/spanien-niederlande-7371/
... and here
http://www.t-online.de/sport/ergebnisse/id_69822638/wm-2014-live-ticker-spanien-holland-live.html

 

[MBotero]

It's not Casillas fault that Spain forget to bring on the defenders for this game

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

$300 on a 13-1 multi... Thank you very much

Wow. You are hitting a wave. Ride it as long you can... but don´t make the mistake to bet trou-out the tournament. Make a stop-loss border. Don´t get greedy (OK, that does not count if you know the refs personally or have some insider infos, you know what I mean. )

Always remember: Regression to the mean will set in , sooner than later...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

It's not Casillas fault that Spain forget to bring on the defenders for this game

You did read the stats, did you?
13 shots is pretty much average. Spain had ball possesion of 63%. What else you expect them to do?

 

[MBotero]

You did read the stats, did you?
13 shots is pretty much average. Spain had ball possesion of 63%. What else you expect them to do?

To provide him minimum cover,they looked like some slalom sky markers for Robben.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

From the raw numbers, it was an outlier. That does not mean I wanna take away from NL.
But expect regression to the mean. NL will not have all of their shots hitting the target in upcoming games, Casillas will save more shots than those hitting his body.
Conclusion:
Great opportunity for betting market inconsitencies.
If odds rise for Spain, I certainly will take a few shots to bet on wins the next few games.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

To provide him minimum cover,they looked like some slalom sky markers for Robben.

Robben played like that even before I went out. That was 4 years ago! It´s a great chance he is that good, thus defenders look like fools against him.

 

[Hugo87]

Not gonna lie, was awesome to see Spain being humiliated yesterday. I'm still a bit bitter after that semi-final 2 years ago...

Could be a wake up call and the end of tiki-taka, but it's still early to tell they have 2 matches to recover.
Casillas shouldn't be playing (De Gea), Javi Martinez must be the other CB next to Ramos, not Pique who had a another pedestrian season and Xavi is almost finished, he just doesn't have the intensity to play this kind of games anymore, Koke would be the logical solution.

 

[MBotero]

Robben played like that even before I went out. That was 4 years ago! It´s a great chance he is that good, thus defenders look like fools against him.

I know is very good,it's one of my favorite players,even from when he was listed as wonderkid in those championship manager football games at 19,but he played against some of the best defenders in the world so i was expecting more from them.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I know is very good,it's one of my favorite players,even from when he was listed as wonderkid in those championship manager football games at 19,but he played against some of the best defenders in the world so i was expecting more from them.

He was curving around defenders in the CL last time I watched in 2010. Exact the same ways, and scoring against world class teams in 2010...

Nothing changed. Trust the numbers. Great betting opportunity to bet on Spain...

But no guarantees here: Always remember the refs have major influence. Anyway, I will take the golden chance if odds are rising...

 

[Amsterhammer]

Re: the Holland game, I think that all sensible (and older) people here realize that the second half was a unique, one-off occurrence that doesn't mean that the Dutch are suddenly top favorites, blah, blah. I would not be surprised to see them having a much harder time scoring against the Ozzies.

AS for today, I'll go with URU - ITA - IVO to win, COL - GRI a draw.

 

[Flamin]

In 2010 a lot of people expected we would become WC, and whe came quite close, didn't we?

True, but with a ridiculous amount of luck though. I was very glad that came to an end in the final

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: the Holland game, I think that all sensible (and older) people here realize that the second half was a unique, one-off occurrence that doesn't mean that the Dutch are suddenly top favorites, blah, blah. I would not be surprised to see them having a much harder time scoring against the Ozzies.

AS for today, I'll go with URU - ITA - IVO to win, COL - GRI a draw.

Exactly. And as you know from "my" NFL stats, numbers don´t lie. One has just to look at the right numbers. Meaning doing it not my way (look at the Denver debacle) . Ok, kidding aside...
NL is strong, Robben as good as I told you with high confidence. But NL won´t score 5 on 13 shots every time they step on the field. Everything will regress, game scores tighten up between contenders...

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Wow. You are hitting a wave. Ride it as long you can... but don´t make the mistake to bet trou-out the tournament. Make a stop-loss border.

That's the trick but easier said then done. Was slightly worried when Mexico had two goals disallowed. I thought the bet might be a non- starter so I was pretty happy when I woke up to see the results.

Don´t get greedy (OK, that does not count if you know the refs personally or have some insider infos, you know what I mean. )

Sadly, I am not part of the FIFA 'family'

Always remember: Regression to the mean will set in , sooner than later...

I alway pull out a percentage of each win and keep that out of the betting. At least that way when I crash I won't crash completely.

In terms of the Holland result. Didn't Spain lose there opening game last world cup? Granted it was not in the same fashion. Italy have a habit of starting slowly as well so it's hard to read too much into that result.

Probably best not to bet on the England game. Head vs heart is always going to turn out badly.

 

[l.Harm]

Exactly. And as you know from "my" NFL stats, numbers don´t lie. One has just to look at the right numbers. Meaning doing it not my way (look at the Denver debacle) . Ok, kidding aside...
NL is strong, Robben as good as I told you with high confidence. But NL won´t score 5 on 13 shots every time they step on the field. Everything will regress, game scores tighten up between contenders...

Shots from 30m distance are different than shots within the 5m area. Numbers are more straightforward to interpret in those American sports. In football they don't always tell the full story.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

That's the trick but easier said then done.

Yeah, that´s why the majority of bettors risk bankrupcy. My approach is; do it sometimes, but don´t see it as full time job you could make a living off*. I only bet when all numbers, and cirumstances show: go for it. Never go with emotions (I am not 100% immune against it though).
My last bets were the past three NFL post seasons (profit in 2 of them), some very seldom single NFL games, the ITA-GER game 2012 (Stats showed Italy with very bad conversion rate of shots vs goals, OTOH Germany showed the exact opposite; "too good" conversion rate. Thus I was betting full force for regression to set in. I was betting two ways; win for ITA, and +2 for ITA. Good cash day it was. It could have been a great one if not that phucking penalty kick in "overtime". God was I pi$$ed... The whole game I had to cheer silently, while fingers crossed for Italy. All my german buddies around me would have "killed" me if I showed any positive emotion when the game was 2-0. It was one kind of adventure. ), Brazil two ways 2014 (for Final, and for Final-Win), and then some in between the years (very little).
Certainly will put something on Spain now...

Sadly, I am not part of the FIFA 'family'

* = Yeah, me too I am not. Otherwise I would make a living of betting solely 24/7 and 365 days a year.

I alway pull out a percentage of each win and keep that out of the betting. At least that way when I crash I won't crash completely.

Like that approach...

In terms of the Holland result. Didn't Spain lose there opening game last world cup?

Probably best not to bet on the England game. Head vs heart is always going to turn out badly.

AFAIR, Spain had like 22-6 shots... and went on to win it all. The Swiss game was what it was.... an unlucky outlier.

2nd part: Yeah, dangerous when the heart comes in. Leave that out...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Shots from 30m distance are different than shots within the 5m area. Numbers are more straightforward to interpret in those American sports. In football they don't always tell the full story.

Evens out over the long run....
But true, inside the 16m-box shots have a much much greater score percentage than outside.
OTOH, some quality numbers are way better than nothing at all. Going with guts and feeling don´t work. That is certain...

 

[gooner]

Buffon out tonight.

Sirigu should be OK coming in.

 

[MBotero]

SO Colombia vs Greece i go for a colombian win.Vamos Colombia!