Inner Peace said:
(1) I didn't mean those numbers to be taken literally (which is why I said so) because GTs are not just one big time trial were we can perfectly compare two riders. Way to many factors which is why I think a clean rider can compete. Crunch time in GTs consist of 3-4 moments in grand tours with the defensive racing these days. The last 3-4 km of mountains near the finish and time trials. So the "1%" difference can only really be applied to comparable individual efforts (TTs and being alone on a mountain - bit like the end of Verbier when most riders were gapped to the next rider). So perhaps try re-doing that calculation based on just the 'critical' moments when riders are completely isolated and I suspect that it is a lot less than 30 minutes. 1-2 minutes I would guess
(2) Reasonable to assume that Evans believes that BMC is a reformed team. Why wouldn't he? He wanted out of Lotto, and Garmin didn't know he was looking. BMC is a logical choice. The reverse question - what information do you have to suggest that BMC IS NOT a reformed team? they just signed the cleanest rider in the peloton, no?
(3) I am neither Naive nor a Fan of Evans per se, i am in a situation where I have known a lot of information about australian riders. In fact, I am not really a fan of individual riders, just the sport and competition itself. The 'evidence' I present to Evans as clean is the reverse logic of why people explain why a clean Lemond went downhill when the 90s hit. I am only defending Evans becoz I see no justification for claiming he is a doper when you have no evidence other than
oh but everbody is doing it
I ask the question to you, other than being on some 'interesting' teams, what evidence do you have that he doped? He was not very well liked at T-mobile - why? wouldn't conform to the rules of the team program? if you were T-mobile DS, would you let the stubborn 'thinks he can race clean' 27yr old on the Tour team in 2004??
And why would Evans speak out against doping (he actually does btw, subtly) when we have seen time and time again that those who speak out are quietly nudged out of the peloton... There is a reason why nobody in the peloton likes Evans (a common thought around here) and I suspect it is because he makes very subtle comments about anti doping and he has the nerve to race clean... Evans is a very stubborn, motivated and frustrated bike racer, perhaps he is stomaching the pain comes from being unwilling to speak out as dramatically as you might want...
I am not trying to convert you into a believer at all but I think the debate about clean and dirty riders is a very interesting one. I still believe, based on perfectly rational logic, that a clean rider can compete in grand tours. I don't need to prove that, because the nature of it is, unprovable (don't know if thats a word). Neither of us can prove they are all dirty, nether of us can prove there are clean competitors. That's the nature of being a cycling fan i guess
Innerpeace....I appreciate your good humor and your passion for the sport. And I don't mind all the speculation.....however you take it pretty far. T-Mobile didn't like Evans cause he was clean.....lol that's a hell of a strech there. We know T-Mobile (specifically Ullrich) didn't like Evans because Cadel was interested in riding for himself, but I seriously doubt it had anything to do with Evans being more naturally talented than anyone else on the team...
I'm not sure there's a way to say this without sounding like an ***, but it might be useful to read up some on the history of doping in cycling, the omerta on doping in cycling, and the effects of PEDs on athletic performance. I wish I had a bunch of ready links at hand but I'm on my useless laptop atm. For me the HUGE one is MANZANO...that man had BALLZ and blew the omerta wide open...one can differeniate the trolls from the real fans when his name comes up. Kohl and Jaksche are similar.
Clearly we need a wiki on the effects of EPO and other oxygen-vector drugs. If you want to learn something about them I suggest you google things like "EPO', 'oygenvector drugs', 'blood doping' along with 'effect on performance' and 'cycling'.
Bottom line is no one seems to disagree that if an athlete is on a blood-doping course, the athlete can expect to improve his TUE numbers by around 5%.
Now my analogy had to do with the very elite of the peloton. Let's assume that the Top 30 riders in the Tour are in the 99%-100% percentile of overall TUE output among professional cyclists. When it comes to the Tour, the difference between 1-30 is generally going to be about 30 mins when you take all the various stages into account....I don't know where you are getting 1-2 mins....that's chump change on a serious mountain stage...1-2 mins is nothing. Bottom line is the difference between being on a program and not being on a program is at least 30 mins---30 mins is a LOW estimate.... those cyclists who are aware of what is going on (eg Manzano, Kohl, etc) will tell you that nobody is to finish the Tour within 30 mins of the winner on bread and water.
So if you accept the conclusions of science on the effect of performance enhancing drugs, and if you take into account the plethora of evidence that most of the major contenders are doping and believe the effects of these methods are genuine and effective (eg PUERTO, continued omerta, that all of the major teams, coaches, doctors, and methods are the same since Puerto, and that there is every indication that the same attitudes and practices exist as then) then in order to credibly assert a Top 10 GT rider is clean, you have to claim they are a natural anomaly that already had a natural 5% advantage over the peloton, prior to the rest of the peloton's dopage.
This contender would have the ability to utterly massacre the peloton in the event of a clean race.
It's very difficult to dissprove an assertion like this, but it very easy to ridicule it as absurdly unlikely. That's what I'm doing. If people care to mimic the Lance-lovers and claim Evans is a genetic God, go ahead and have your fun...there's nothing that can be said on the Internet to prove that a man is or isn't a deity. But I believe that deifying a cyclist as a natural anomaly intrinsically disrespects his rivals. I'd like to think that if a cyclist lies enough about being clean (eg the High Road/Slipstream version of omerta), eventually his rivals will tire of his hypocrisy and will come clean just to show the mofos up.
As for the other points.....Evans has never said a word against doping and/or omerta. And anytime he makes some veiled comment that is interpreted as against some other doper, the media (eg Velonews and other enablers) jumps all over it and loves it....believe me the professional cycling community has nothing against this sort of jab for the benefit of fans, just like they have nothing against Millar/Vaughters et. al putting out their BS. If Evans were to legitimately criticize the omerta on doping, and/or if he were to actually claim he has been cheated out of rightful wins, then yes in that case there would be a backlash. Meanwhile, there is no evidence suggesting that Evans behaves like a man who has ridden clean for years and has been robbed time and again by cheaters.
As for his team...I don't know what to say to that. Look, if Evans was committed to riding clean, why would he sign up with people that repeatedly and knowingly broke the rules? Why would he want to be associated with a team that might be banned from the Tour for that very reason (hell, there already have been BMC positives, and if the corrupt UCI wasn't in charge BMC might end up being excluded).
If Evans was clean, he'd sign up for Amore e Vita, and then we'd see how a clean team would do at the Tour.
Again, I have no quarrel with Evans and nothing against his fans...I would make similar arguments to a fan asserting the same thing about any GT contender. This being an Aussie site obviously there are tons of Evans believers... It goes without saying that German sites believed Ulle was clean while Pharmstrong was doping, that Spanish sites believe Contador is clean and angelic while his rivals are dirty cheating dopers, and Italian fan sites believe with full conviction that Ivan Basso has mended his ways and is on his way to defeating all the dirty foreign dopers through his sheer excess in talent. This is human nature.