Frank vs Wiggins

[flesh_pile]

So who has the edge this year? Wiggins with increased confidence after performing well at the tour last year and taking it easy for the Giro, or Frank with his improved time trialling? There's a lot of tough climbs which would seem to give the nod to Frank, but Wiggins could put a minute or more into Frank in the long ITT. Wiggins is definitely the man on Sky, while Frank has to share the duties with his brother. Frank has had better results so far this season, while Wiggins has remained low key. I would seem to think this benefits Wiggins as he'll be 'fresh', but who knows. This isn't a question of which one will win (doubtful for either one, but who knows), but rather who will place better in the final standings where ever that may be. Debate.

 

[Delicato]

Let's see...

We can safely assume that Frank will lose at least 2,5-3 minutes to Brad in the long ITT. Plus at least 20 seconds in the prologue. 3,5 minutes total.

There are at least two stages where gaps can be large-Ax-3-Domaines and Tourmalet (plus Port de Bales). Frank can have 5 minutes advantage to Brad after these stages-and it will be more than enough to finish higher than Wiggo in GC. Look at 17th stage in Tour 2009. Schlecks continuosly made attacks and in the end they succeeded-they managed to drop Brad and finish more than 3 minutes ahead. And that was not even a stage with mountaintop finish (which is supposedly better for Wig).

 

[ilillillli]

So who has the edge this year? Wiggins with increased confidence after performing well at the tour last year and taking it easy for the Giro, or Frank with his improved time trialling? There's a lot of tough climbs which would seem to give the nod to Frank, but Wiggins could put a minute or more into Frank in the long ITT. Wiggins is definitely the man on Sky, while Frank has to share the duties with his brother. Frank has had better results so far this season, while Wiggins has remained low key. I would seem to think this benefits Wiggins as he'll be 'fresh', but who knows. This isn't a question of which one will win (doubtful for either one, but who knows), but rather who will place better in the final standings where ever that may be. Debate.

The edge for what... eighth place?

Worst debut: flesh pile or Fabio Felline?

 

[Pharazon]

got to say Frank here..

not enough TT's and too many mountains for wiggins

 

[ilillillli]

Just so I'm clear... "the edge" means "the edge for 8th place," right?

 

[Winterfold]

Hmmm. man on man on the Tourmalet or similar then F Schleck is going to beat Wiggins. But I am not sure by how much these days - the climbs in the Tour are long but not so severe as the Giro or Vuelta so Wiggins has a much better chance of hanging in. And he is looking thin. I am not sure what to make of the Giro, the only time he seemed to go balls-out was the Prologue, and from then he did not seem very committed, except the huge break away stage. He definitely put a lot of suffering in the tank though.

That Wiggins is a team leader, and Frank a mega-domestique will make a big difference in Wiggins favour.

The Schlecks have clearly worked on their TT position and had plenty room for improvement so I dont think Brad will put as much time into them this year.

I think some of the early stages are important for Wiggins so I hope Sky take the race to the other GC favourites early on, as they have a strong team for the 'Classics' stages and it could make the overall very interesting if they attack (collaborating with eg BMC) early on. A rider who has come 25th in P-R taking the race on with Flecha will make Stage 3 very exciting (I hope).

As a Brit I cant see past my national bias of course but it will be close between those 2 for 3rd.

 

[flesh_pile]

Just so I'm clear... "the edge" means "the edge for 8th place," right?

Ummmm, I was actually thinking 3rd. I'm not sure who you think will be able to beat Wiggins, Contadoper, and the Schlecks. I hope you aren't thinking Armstrong...

Frank only finished a minute and a half in front of Wiggo in stage 17 last year. Andy was 2.5 minutes. All the other mountain stages Wiggo finished with or right near the Schleck brothers. He even crested Mt. Ventoux a few seconds ahead of Frank last year.

 

[ilillillli]

Ummmm, I was actually thinking 3rd. I'm not sure who you think will be able to beat Wiggins, Contadoper, and the Schlecks. I hope you aren't thinking Armstrong...

Frank only finished a minute and a half in front of Wiggo in stage 17 last year. Andy was 2.5 minutes. All the other mountain stages Wiggo finished with or right near the Schleck brothers. He even crested Mt. Ventoux a few seconds ahead of Frank last year.

generally, i think you're right. you can pretty safely judge a GC rider's future based on their first good result in a major stage race. if you don't believe me, ask 7-time giro d'italia winner damiano cunego.

 

[flesh_pile]

I think Frank has easily proved himself and there's no reason to doubt that Wiggin's performance was a fluke. He has shown that he still has a top GC contender's time trial, while at the same time has lightened up enough to hang with some of the top climbers in the world. The other GC contenders are either aging or have raced hard at the beginning of the season, making them questionable for a podium placing during a 3 week stage race.

 

[Cerberus]

Ummmm, I was actually thinking 3rd. I'm not sure who you think will be able to beat Wiggins, Contadoper, and the Schlecks. I hope you aren't thinking Armstrong...

Frank only finished a minute and a half in front of Wiggo in stage 17 last year. Andy was 2.5 minutes. All the other mountain stages Wiggo finished with or right near the Schleck brothers. He even crested Mt. Ventoux a few seconds ahead of Frank last year.

You're memory of the Tour is inaccurate. Frank won stage 17 in a group with his brother and Contador more than 3 minutes ahead of Wiggins. Wiggins lost a further 20 seconds on Ventoux and the only reason he didn't lose more was because the Schedules were trying to drop Armstrong to.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Tour_de_France,_Stage_12_to_Stage_21#Stage_17

 

[flesh_pile]

You're memory of the Tour is inaccurate. Frank won stage 17 in a group with his brother and Contador more than 3 minutes ahead of Wiggins. Wiggins lost a further 20 seconds on Ventoux and the only reason he didn't lose more was because the Schedules were trying to drop Armstrong to.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Tour_de_France,_Stage_12_to_Stage_21#Stage_17

Correct, I was looking at the GC times mistakenly.

Pharazon - with regards to the time trials this year, the overall distances are roughly the same. The lack of a TTT might benefit Frank somewhat as he lost roughly 20 seconds to Wiggins last year there.

 

[ilillillli]

ok, let's break this down...

I think Frank has easily proved himself.

sure, he's proved himself. here are his tour results over the years:

2005: 11 (17:46 down)
2006: 15 (31:48 down)
2007: 5 (4:28 down)
2008: 5 (6:04 down)
--------------

double-check my math, but i'm pretty sure that's zero top-3s. if anything, he's proven that he's a guy on the wrong side of 30 that's never done better than 5th place in the tour.

there's no reason to doubt that Wiggin's performance was a fluke.

ok, that's almost a sentence, so we'll go ahead and round up. i'm guessing that you're trying to say that there's no reason to doubt wiggins can repeat his performance (if i'm wrong, please correct me). if i'm not wrong: OF COURSE there's a reason to doubt Wiggins can repeat his performance. there's a very good reason. don't believe me? here's a list of the stud riders that were able to snag exactly one top-5 performance over the years (omitting last year for control purposes):

2005: francesco mancebo
2006: oscar pereiro
2007: haimar zubeldia
2008: christian vandevelde

have ANY of those guys ever been taken seriously as a GC contender since then? (hint: no).

 

[Winterfold]

How many of the riders in your second list have had a full, and pretty decent, team working in full support of them in subsequent TDF attempts?

That's not a smartarse response, I'm just asking.

I would not say VDV had full support as a GC/podium contender in 2009 as he seemed to be working for Brad from Arcalis.

That said, I do think the two of them could just as easily be fighting it out for 8/9/10 as 3rd, depending on how in form other riders are and how it pans out...

 

[nvpacchi]

ok, let's break this down...



sure, he's proved himself. here are his tour results over the years:

2005: 11 (17:46 down)
2006: 15 (31:48 down)
2007: 5 (4:28 down)
2008: 5 (6:04 down)
--------------

double-check my math, but i'm pretty sure that's zero top-3s. if anything, he's proven that he's a guy on the wrong side of 30 that's never done better than 5th place in the tour.



ok, that's almost a sentence, so we'll go ahead and round up. i'm guessing that you're trying to say that there's no reason to doubt wiggins can repeat his performance (if i'm wrong, please correct me). if i'm not wrong: OF COURSE there's a reason to doubt Wiggins can repeat his performance. there's a very good reason. don't believe me? here's a list of the stud riders that were able to snag exactly one top-5 performance over the years (omitting last year for control purposes):

2005: francesco mancebo
2006: oscar pereiro
2007: haimar zubeldia
2008: christian vandevelde

have ANY of those guys ever been taken seriously as a GC contender since then? (hint: no).

Haimar's been 5th in two different Tours.

Both guys do have a very good shot to finish top 5. I expect Frank to do better, but they should be close in time just like last year.

 

[ilillillli]

I would not say VDV had full support as a GC/podium contender in 2009 as he seemed to be working for Brad from Arcalis.

this basically supports my point. vandevelde nabbed a top-4 at the tour one year and the next year he's not even the top rider on his own team despite being their "protected" rider going in. fluke top-5's happen all the time.

 

[BroDeal]

this basically supports my point. vandevelde nabbed a top-4 at the tour one year and the next year he's not even the top rider on his own team despite being their "protected" rider going in. fluke top-5's happen all the time.

I am sure that fractured pelvis from crashing out of the Giro had nothing to do with it.

 

[ilillillli]

I am sure that fractured pelvis from crashing out of the Giro had nothing to do with it.

remind me: where did i say that luck has nothing to do with it? ok, right. i didn't. of course luck (good AND bad) play a HUGE role in where you end up in the final GC. 5 perfect months of preparation followed by 3-weeks of staying upright on a bike all while never having a bad day? that's incredibly difficult to do once, nevermind twice in a row. all the more reason to suspect wiggins won't pull another top 5 out of his hat. thanks for your support.

 

[ilillillli]

Haimar's been 5th in two different Tours.

Both guys do have a very good shot to finish top 5. I expect Frank to do better, but they should be close in time just like last year.

congratulations, you found a technical mistake. now, i'll ask you again: has haimar zubeldia ever been taken seriously as a GC contender?

the answer's still "no."

 

[flesh_pile]

Well you're question both Frank and Wiggins taking 3rd and 4th - who do you think has a shot of beating them? There's pretty much no one left with a legit chance of beating them.

Here are the other GC 'contenders':

Armstrong - joke
Basso - went too hard in the Giro and has a joke of a TT
Kreuziger - worse than Nibali and look where Nibali finished in the Giro
VDV - joke
Martin - will lose too much on the hills
Rogers - joke + too much team emphasis on Cav
Evans - joke + unlucky + horrible team + tired
Menchov - questionable
Vino - working for Contador
Sastre - several chances at various GTs without much luck since his '08 Tour win
Kloden - possible, if he wasn't working for Lance

There's no in in sight for 3rd/4th barring Giro-like upsets.

 

[ilillillli]

Well you're question both Frank and Wiggins taking 3rd and 4th - who do you think has a shot of beating them? There's pretty much no one left with a legit chance of beating them.

Here are the other GC 'contenders':

Armstrong - joke
Basso - went too hard in the Giro and has a joke of a TT
Kreuziger - worse than Nibali and look where Nibali finished in the Giro
VDV - joke
Martin - will lose too much on the hills
Rogers - joke + too much team emphasis on Cav
Evans - joke + unlucky + horrible team + tired
Menchov - questionable
Vino - working for Contador
Sastre - several chances at various GTs without much luck since his '08 Tour win
Kloden - possible, if he wasn't working for Lance

There's no in in sight for 3rd/4th barring Giro-like upsets.

why did i bother looking up GC standings and time data when i could've just gone with:

wiggins: joke

there, that's much better.

 

[pedaling squares]

2005: francesco mancebo
2006: oscar pereiro
2007: haimar zubeldia
2008: christian vandevelde

have ANY of those guys ever been taken seriously as a GC contender since then? (hint: no).

You have a good point about Frank's reputation being more impressive than his palmares, but these comparisons aren't really fair. Suspension, serious injuries, supporting other teammates... plenty of reasons why these guys haven't reached their previous heights.

 

[Zoncolan]

I guess it all depends on how much work Frank has to do for Andy.
Regardless of that, I think Frank finishes ahead of Wiggins. Too many hills, too few TT kilometers for Wiggins.
Frank should finish 5th-6th and Wiggins 7th-8th.

 

[ilillillli]

You have a good point about Frank's reputation being more impressive than his palmares, but these comparisons aren't really fair. Suspension, serious injuries, supporting other teammates... plenty of reasons why these guys haven't reached their previous heights.

you make good points, but i stand by mine.

1. i included the "comparables" part mostly as a way to show that sometimes a reasonably good rider (like wiggins) sometimes rides themselves into a great performance. but that doesn't mean they're all of a sudden a great rider. there have been plenty of tour "top-fivers" that we've never heard from again.

2. suspension, serious injuries, and supporting other teammates have been and will continue to be elements of a cycling campaign and career. as a readily-available example, frank will be doing quite a bit of work for andy in this year's edition. the fact that mancebo, pereiro, vandevelde, and zubeldia have all gone away pretty quietly is just more reason to question whether or not wiggins can really put it together again. i'm not saying he can't, i'm just saying it's not really reasonable to pencil him in to 3rd place.

 

[flesh_pile]

why did i bother looking up GC standings and time data when i could've just gone with:

wiggins: joke

there, that's much better.

Then I guess you're going with Frank for 3rd and Wiggins for 4th then. That's good to know. However, I think I'm going to have to disagree with you and say that Wiggins will nip Frank this year for the final podium spot.

And I'm not talking about Frank winning the thing here. Gaining one or two spots is not out of the question considering the form he has shown this year and how he's stacked up against other Tour GC pretenders.

 

[ilillillli]

Then I guess you're going with Frank for 3rd and Wiggins for 4th then.

Nope. Have you read what i've written? I think B-Wig will be doing well to crack the top-10.

On a side note, how does it feel to be a member of Footon-Servetto's Tour team?