Frank vs Wiggins

[karlboss]

Podium...Contador, Frank and Andy, bought about by longer attacks launched by Saxo, matched and finished by Contador like st 17 last year. Others will take time back in the TT, but not enough. Wiggins...I don't think his long TT amounts to much, never has in the past, but I think he'll diesel climb with the likes of Basso...maybe 6th.

 

[theyoungest]

Podium...Contador, Frank and Andy, bought about by longer attacks launched by Saxo, matched and finished by Contador like st 17 last year. Others will take time back in the TT, but not enough. Wiggins...I don't think his long TT amounts to much, never has in the past, but I think he'll diesel climb with the likes of Basso...maybe 6th.

Wiggo will be happy if he can keep up with Basso... he's a diesel alright, but still a stronger climber than Wiggins.

 

[joeyrobbo]

I think Wiggins will struggle to match the 4th this time round.. last year he rode the perfect tour, no crashes, no bad luck/mechanicals, didn't have any bad days, plus he wasn't really marked out as a GC contender initially so less pressure and no riders marking him for the first part of the race.

This year he has the pressure of leadership, everyone marking him, plus inevitably at some stage he's gonna be involved in a crash/have bad luck.

Seems a nice guy, and think he'll top 10 again, but the jump from 4th to podium is too big IMO. And as for winning it, he'll need 5 or 6 contenders to crash out before that happens.

 

[ttrider]

Basso is superior to Wiggins,
the crucial thing with Basso at the tour though is that he will never let the pace drop because he cant accelerate so if people are dropped by a group with Basso in it then it could be curtains
Wiggins is in this category for sure

 

[Angliru]

It is really sad Carlos is forced into the tour. Fully recovered from disc problems?

I think the latest that he is fully recovered but with disc issues how can ever be sure? I just hope he gets a good ride in and maybe gets a stage win.

 

[Von Mises]

Well you're question both Frank and Wiggins taking 3rd and 4th - who do you think has a shot of beating them? There's pretty much no one left with a legit chance of beating them.

Here are the other GC 'contenders':

Armstrong - joke
Basso - went too hard in the Giro and has a joke of a TT
Kreuziger - worse than Nibali and look where Nibali finished in the Giro
VDV - joke
Martin - will lose too much on the hills
Rogers - joke + too much team emphasis on Cav
Evans - joke + unlucky + horrible team + tired
Menchov - questionable
Vino - working for Contador
Sastre - several chances at various GTs without much luck since his '08 Tour win
Kloden - possible, if he wasn't working for Lance

There's no in in sight for 3rd/4th barring Giro-like upsets.

If you check betting odds (and historically they are pretty accurate predictions), then Armstrong has better odds than Wiggins and Schleck. Basso and Evans have similar odds than Wiggins and Schleck.

Betting odds, and I think that also general opinion of this forum says that Contador is big favourite. Then comes ASchleck. And then comes a big bunch of riders including Wiggins, Fschleck, Armstrong, Basso, Gesink, Menchov, Evans, SSsanches, Kreuziger, Sastre etc who are going to battle minor places.

If Wiggins or FSchleck finish in Top 5, I will not be surprised. But I will not be surprised if they do not finish Top 5.

 

[euanli]

I don't know what odds you've been looking at, but yesterday Sastre was 150/1.

Ok a couple minutes in the TT, but what is going to be the time difference between Wiggins and Frank on stage 3?

 

[Von Mises]

I don't know what odds you've been looking at, but yesterday Sastre was 150/1.

Ok a couple minutes in the TT, but what is going to be the time difference between Wiggins and Frank on stage 3?

I was not looking at odds who is going to win, wiggins and sastre´s winning odds are irrelevant. I was looking at odds who is going to be TOP 5 and TOP 10.

 

[BroDeal]

I am sticking with my prediction that Wigans will blow up during one of the tough mountain stages.

 

[sublimit]

Wigians may blow at some stage, but i dont think it will be catastrophic and lose 25 minutes or anything so maybe 5 or 6 mins. i reckon he will finish in the top 6 but it will be tough this year because the startlist quality looks better than last year.