Frank vs Wiggins

[Winterfold]

I can see why an objective rational person might say that, but I have mindless optimism and an irrational desperation for a Brit to get on the podium on my side

I think 1 and 2 are pretty obvious, and by some margin, barring Giro 2010 mishaps.

But 3-10, maybe beyond, are much tighter, and will not be separated by much so to definitely rule someone out, or rule someone in (except because of nationalism), well I just dont think you can be that definitive.

 

[Angliru]

Ummmm, I was actually thinking 3rd. I'm not sure who you think will be able to beat Wiggins, Contadoper, and the Schlecks. I hope you aren't thinking Armstrong...

Frank only finished a minute and a half in front of Wiggo in stage 17 last year. Andy was 2.5 minutes. All the other mountain stages Wiggo finished with or right near the Schleck brothers. He even crested Mt. Ventoux a few seconds ahead of Frank last year.

In what race did he finish ahead of Frank Schleck on Ventoux? Frank finished 20 seconds up on Wiggins in the Tour's Ventoux stage.

I figure Armstrong and Basso will finish ahead of Wiggins. Shoot, Vandevelde might show him his rear wheel on the climbs if he comes into to the Tour recovered from his Giro injuries. I could throw Menchov into the mix too.

 

[Angliru]

Edit: here's a list of the stud riders that were able to snag exactly one top-5 performance over the years (omitting last year for control purposes):

2005: francesco mancebo
2006: oscar pereiro
2007: haimar zubeldia
2008: christian vandevelde

have ANY of those guys ever been taken seriously as a GC contender since then? (hint: no).

In defense of Vandevelde he still was able to finish 8th inspite of his not being 100% as a result of the almost career ending injuries he incurred at the 2009 Giro. Having finished 5th (or was it 4th) in 2009 he was talked up as a contender prior to his crash at the Giro. No one expected him to perform as he did at the Tour in 2010. By virtue of his 2009 and 2010 Tour performances I think he should still be considered at best a candidate for a top 5 and at worst top 10 gc finish.

 

[wiry pyruvity]

Based on Lieutenants...who is in the best shape?

Armstrong: great (not a fan btw)
Contador: good
Menchov: okay
Basso: good
Evans: fair
Wiggins: good
Schleck (either): great
Sastre: poor guy
Sammy Sanchez: good
Luis Sanchez: good

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well you're question both Frank and Wiggins taking 3rd and 4th - who do you think has a shot of beating them? There's pretty much no one left with a legit chance of beating them.

Here are the other GC 'contenders':

Armstrong - joke
Basso - went too hard in the Giro and has a joke of a TT
Kreuziger - worse than Nibali and look where Nibali finished in the Giro
VDV - joke
Martin - will lose too much on the hills
Rogers - joke + too much team emphasis on Cav
Evans - joke + unlucky + horrible team + tired
Menchov - questionable
Vino - working for Contador
Sastre - several chances at various GTs without much luck since his '08 Tour win
Kloden - possible, if he wasn't working for Lance

There's no in in sight for 3rd/4th barring Giro-like upsets.

You don't consider Samuel Sánchez worthy of a mention? Or Robert Gesink? Or any teammates of the riders already mentioned? May I remind you that there were only 3 teams in the top 5 last year, and in all of the last 3 Tours, a team has put 2 riders in the top 5, including twice 2 of the top 3...

 

[Angliru]

Based on Lieutenants...who is in the best shape?

Armstrong: great (not a fan btw)
Contador: good
Menchov: okay
Basso: good
Evans: fair
Wiggins: good
Schleck (either): great
Sastre: poor guy
Sammy Sanchez: good
Luis Sanchez: good

So CTT twists Sastre's arm to commit to the Tour and then don't send anyone to support him in the mountains? He deserves better. I would have preferred seeing him in the Vuelta with Tondo since they obviously are going for the points jersey.

 

[The Hitch]

looking at the frank schleck results that someone posted here, i wonder, would frank schleck be taken as seriously if he wasnt the brother of andy, and they were seen more as individuals and less as the tag team- the schleck brothers.

Other than perhaps his amstel win a few years back, this criterium he just won is the best result of his career and hes 30.

then again perhaps its the fact that he was the maillot jaune csc leader and a favourite, going into the alp de huez stage in 2008.

 

[wiry pyruvity]

So CTT twists Sastre's arm to commit to the Tour and then don't send anyone to support him in the mountains? He deserves better. I would have preferred seeing him in the Vuelta with Tondo since they obviously are going for the points jersey.

has sastre ever had a fair shake historically? his 08 win required him to (rightly)abandon the existing team strategy.

 

[wiry pyruvity]

looking at the frank schleck results that someone posted here, i wonder, would frank schleck be taken as seriously if he wasnt the brother of andy, and they were seen more as individuals and less as the tag team- the schleck brothers.

Other than perhaps his amstel win a few years back, this criterium he just won is the best result of his career and hes 30.

then again perhaps its the fact that he was the maillot jaune csc leader and a favourite, going into the alp de huez stage in 2008.

he won the '06 alpe d'huez

 

[ilillillli]

In defense of Vandevelde he still was able to finish 8th inspite of his not being 100% as a result of the almost career ending injuries he incurred at the 2009 Giro. Having finished 5th (or was it 4th) in 2009 he was talked up as a contender prior to his crash at the Giro. No one expected him to perform as he did at the Tour in 2010. By virtue of his 2009 and 2010 Tour performances I think he should still be considered at best a candidate for a top 5 and at worst top 10 gc finish.

why does everyone keep making the same point? here's mine again: there are MANY DIFFERENT REASONS a rider might not finish in the top-5 (injuries, suspension, and teammates amongst them). More than anything, it's hard to repeat a top-5 performance because it's just REALLY HARD to do. i know vandevelde was injured. i also know that he didn't score a second top-5 performance. that's my point.

 

[Potomac]

I think Frank has easily proved himself and there's no reason to doubt that Wiggin's performance was a fluke. He has shown that he still has a top GC contender's time trial, while at the same time has lightened up enough to hang with some of the top climbers in the world. The other GC contenders are either aging or have raced hard at the beginning of the season, making them questionable for a podium placing during a 3 week stage race.

Nobody doubts Wiggins performance was a fluke.

 

[ilillillli]

Nobody doubts Wiggins performance was a fluke.

exactly...

 

[Angliru]

Nobody doubts Wiggins performance was a fluke.

+1

...but I doubt Vandevelde's 2008 performance was though.

 

[mowie133]

think your dreaming if you think wiggins will crack the top 3 or 5...last year was a one off,he will be lucky to crack the top 12...as for frank he will finish 7th

 

[wiry pyruvity]

frank seems to be riding really well this year...i have him beating his brother, with menchov making a lot of noise, and Basso doing well enough to raise interest in next year's edition...perhaps a breakout performance by Taramaae....but of course contador for the win...Chavanel has a funny chance in stage 4 to take the cobbles stage by a large margin (over other GCs)...making it interesting for a week or so...

 

[flicker]

So CTT twists Sastre's arm to commit to the Tour and then don't send anyone to support him in the mountains? He deserves better. I would have preferred seeing him in the Vuelta with Tondo since they obviously are going for the points jersey.

It is really sad Carlos is forced into the tour. Fully recovered from disc problems?

 

[wiry pyruvity]

It is really sad Carlos is forced into the tour. Fully recovered from disc problems?

he could own the KOM contest...perhaps they won't make him go for the GC

 

[flesh_pile]

think your dreaming if you think wiggins will crack the top 3 or 5...last year was a one off,he will be lucky to crack the top 12...as for frank he will finish 7th

Why all this hate on Wiggins? The formula for his success seems pretty sound. Keep most of your power, lose some weight. Wa-la, you can climb with the big boys. I don't see why he would do worse this year than last, especially now that he knows he can be a contender. I'd say other than Contador, Wiggins should be able to beat the other GC guys in the time trial which is where minutes could be gained or lost. Kloden could perhaps beat him in that discipline, but he'll be working for Armstrong overall. Wiggins' climbing ability is still up in the air, but I'm going to venture a guess that it will be better than last year. Will his contenders climb better this year? Who knows. Wiggins is still relatively new to road racing and grand tours. Yeah, he had done GTs and raced on the road the previous several years, but they were an afterthought compared to his track ambitions. Then he's suddenly 4th in the biggest cycling race in the world? Most top guys improve over their first few years doing big stage races. It's not like you can instantly transform yourself from doing 4 minute efforts to doing 5 plus hour stages day after day for 3 weeks straight in a year's time. He's had another year to prepare mentally and physically. Plus dropping that drastic amount of weight I'm sure takes some time to adapt to.

Nope. Have you read what i've written? I think B-Wig will be doing well to crack the top-10.

On a side note, how does it feel to be a member of Footon-Servetto's Tour team?

It was meant to be facetious. But seriously, who do you think will beat Frank and Wiggins and why? (My guess for final standings is Contador, A. Schleck, Wiggins, F. Schleck, crapshoot, but we're mainly discussing Frank and Wiggins here, especially as they finished so close last year)

In what race did he finish ahead of Frank Schleck on Ventoux? Frank finished 20 seconds up on Wiggins in the Tour's Ventoux stage.

I figure Armstrong and Basso will finish ahead of Wiggins. Shoot, Vandevelde might show him his rear wheel on the climbs if he comes into to the Tour recovered from his Giro injuries. I could throw Menchov into the mix too.

Again, mistake on my part - I was looking at the GC standings after that stage. Armstrong was pretty close to Wiggins on most of the climbs - I can't see Armstrong improving more so than Wiggins. I'd actually think the opposite - Lance getting slower while Wiggins improves. I think Wiggins will be able to pop past Armstrong this year. I don't think Basso is at the level where he can win 2 GCs back to back, especially after a tough Giro. See below for my thoughts on Menchov. I haven't been impressed with Vandevelde, even barring his setbacks.

You don't consider Samuel Sánchez worthy of a mention? Or Robert Gesink? Or any teammates of the riders already mentioned? May I remind you that there were only 3 teams in the top 5 last year, and in all of the last 3 Tours, a team has put 2 riders in the top 5, including twice 2 of the top 3...

Most of the teammates that could be good are all Lance's teammates so there's pretty much a snowballs chance in hell that they'll be given the go ahead to shoot for the podium. Gesink (and Menchov), not really. I just don't think they have 'it'. Bad luck seems to greet them at every turn, and they've got a respectable sprinter on the team as well that will likely detract from protection for the GC riders. Sanchez, possibly. I have a feeling that he's going to be holding back for the Vuelta.

 

[blaxland]

Replying to the topic'F.Shleck is a super domestique and B.Wiggins is a Team Leader"these roles that both riders adhere too are the reason why Wiggins will finish higher on overall Gc than Frank..

 

[mowie133]

Why all this hate on Wiggins? The formula for his success seems pretty sound. Keep most of your power, lose some weight. Wa-la, you can climb with the big boys. I don't see why he would do worse this year than last, especially now that he knows he can be a contender. I'd say other than Contador, Wiggins should be able to beat the other GC guys in the time trial which is where minutes could be gained or lost. Kloden could perhaps beat him in that discipline, but he'll be working for Armstrong overall. Wiggins' climbing ability is still up in the air, but I'm going to venture a guess that it will be better than last year. Will his contenders climb better this year? Who knows. Wiggins is still relatively new to road racing and grand tours. Yeah, he had done GTs and raced on the road the previous several years, but they were an afterthought compared to his track ambitions. Then he's suddenly 4th in the biggest cycling race in the world? Most top guys improve over their first few years doing big stage races. It's not like you can instantly transform yourself from doing 4 minute efforts to doing 5 plus hour stages day after day for 3 weeks straight in a year's time. He's had another year to prepare mentally and physically. Plus dropping that drastic amount of weight I'm sure takes some time to adapt to.


it's not really hate it's just the facts atm in my eyes lol,last year he hardly attacked the big boys in the tour..in many ways abit like evans he just stays with them, this year i feel he ain't in the ball park of AC an andy an frank...throw in armstrong an rabobank two an basso,he will stuggle to keep up let alone attack them sadly!!!
an his team i can't say i no his team well but is gerrans the best helper in the hills?? i hope i'm wrong an he goes on to win,hell if a aussie can't win may aswell be a pomie...as they will lose the ashes this year

 

[M Sport]

Just so I'm clear... "the edge" means "the edge for 8th place," right?

Post of the thread lol ... I would be slightly more generous and say they will be battling for sixth place.

 

[Cerberus]

It was meant to be facetious. But seriously, who do you think will beat Frank and Wiggins and why? (My guess for final standings is Contador, A. Schleck, Wiggins, F. Schleck, crapshoot, but we're mainly discussing Frank and Wiggins here, especially as they finished so close last year)

I think there's 10 people who could finish third, so I won't predict who will beat those two, but I can easily name a some who might beat them: Armstrong (yes that guy), he did it last year, yes there was some side wind and a TTT, but even talking that out he was close.

Menchov: Massively better GT results than Wiggins and Schleck.

Evans: if he recovered from the Giro much better TT than Schleck and better climbing than Wiggins.

Basso: again dependent on recovery from the giro.

Gesink: Did well in the Vuelta last year, young enough to improve further for this year.

Frank and Wiggins could finish 3rd and 4th, but I hardly think it's a foregone conclusion. Particularly not for Wiggins who has only done well one time in a GT.

 

[Notso Swift]

/\
That is about right for me, too

 

[fatterboy]

I guess it all depends on how much work Frank has to do for Andy.
Regardless of that, I think Frank finishes ahead of Wiggins. Too many hills, too few TT kilometers for Wiggins.
Frank should finish 5th-6th and Wiggins 7th-8th.

Nothink against Wiggo but i think he wont make top ten this year
Frank top 5 Andy top 2 Contador top 4 ,he may have Vino but its Vino team and I think he will do as he pleases can't see him hammering himself in the front for Contador.Armstrong? but Ithink this tour is wide open.
Just my thourghts.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Why all this hate on Wiggins? The formula for his success seems pretty sound. Keep most of your power, lose some weight. Wa-la, you can climb with the big boys. I don't see why he would do worse this year than last, especially now that he knows he can be a contender.

Au contraire, last year nobody expected him to be up there. When he was still up there when we got to stage 17, he became a threat because of his TT skills. At that point we saw the first real concerted attempts to isolate and drop him, and they did it and put 3 minutes into him. Now that they know he can be a contender, they will be more willing to concentrate on roughing him up and eliminating him, whereas last year they may have concentrated on other contenders first, expecting him to drop out of contention. Now, everybody will have to keep an eye out for him, because they know he's capable of being a contender. It's difficult to become a top contender, but just as hard to continue to be a contender when everybody's got their eyes on you. Just ask the myriad people who've got one GT top 5 and never duplicated it.

I'd say other than Contador, Wiggins should be able to beat the other GC guys in the time trial which is where minutes could be gained or lost. Kloden could perhaps beat him in that discipline, but he'll be working for Armstrong overall. Wiggins' climbing ability is still up in the air, but I'm going to venture a guess that it will be better than last year.

It will have to be, because we have a more climbing-intensive parcours this year, and because he was threatened and dropped in the high mountains, it will be there that the pressure will be put on him again.

Will his contenders climb better this year? Who knows. Wiggins is still relatively new to road racing and grand tours. Yeah, he had done GTs and raced on the road the previous several years, but they were an afterthought compared to his track ambitions. Then he's suddenly 4th in the biggest cycling race in the world? Most top guys improve over their first few years doing big stage races. It's not like you can instantly transform yourself from doing 4 minute efforts to doing 5 plus hour stages day after day for 3 weeks straight in a year's time. He's had another year to prepare mentally and physically. Plus dropping that drastic amount of weight I'm sure takes some time to adapt to.

Yes, Wiggins is still relatively new to it, but he's also not young. He isn't at the point where he's still developing strength. Also, given his natural build, he wasn't made for climbing, it's something he's had to work on. Even if you watch last year's Tour, for the most part he was a hanger-on in the mountains; he didn't come to the front much when he didn't have to and he didn't really execute a whole-hearted attack, just some small darts to test the legs. What's more, unlike most of the other contenders, he has done nothing elsewhere. No climbing performances in Paris-Nice, in País Vasco, in the Dauphiné etc. Yes, he had that attack on Monte Grappa in the Giro, where basically the entire GC battle ignored him, but apart from that, we have not seen Wiggins going 100% on a hilly parcours since last July. How the hell are we supposed to gauge his abilities?

It was meant to be facetious. But seriously, who do you think will beat Frank and Wiggins and why? (My guess for final standings is Contador, A. Schleck, Wiggins, F. Schleck, crapshoot, but we're mainly discussing Frank and Wiggins here, especially as they finished so close last year)

Menchov. Armstrong possibly. If Armstrong, then possibly one of his teammates too. Sánchez. One of the surprise packages, perhaps Rodríguez. Fedrigo. Ron Jeremy.