French hope

[toolittle]

2018 Chris froome and Riche porte will be 33.
Expect the start downward trend in terms of performance.

Next generation, only G.Thomas and Domulin are strong in TT and climbing well.
Till now, their climbing ability is not considered as Contador/Froome level.
In all, more easy to beat when compared with froome.

Pinot, Bardet, Barguil... are proven strong riders.
Up and coming,.... Latour.
Who will be French hero?

 

[laurensde+]

Who will be French hero?

 

[carton]

Agree with the above. I think Gaudu has the best chance to win multiple Tours, but that's much easier said than done as a 53kg climber. Pinot has the best chance to win a Grand Tour, on the basis of his (peak) time trialling. Latour also fits that mold, but he has yet to show he has the consistency. Alaphillipe is similar in what he's lacking but different in what he has going for him. He might have done well on this year's parcours, but as Paris-Nice showed, he still lacks endurance.

Bardet, Barguil (1991, but who's splitting hairs) and Pinot are from (or nearly from) the same "Class of 1990" as GT winners Quintana, Aru and Dumoulin, all of which have shown higher ceilings. Again, I can only see Pinot beating them on good form. But he's my favourite out of the French GC contenders, so take that with a grain of salt.

 

[loge1884]

honestly?
I don't see any current french rider in the league of Hinault, Fignon, Thévenet, Anquetil - just to name those after 60s ...

Pinot might be the most gifted, but he lacks cold blood and determination ...
Bardet is someone who with a little luck (e.g. the top rider crashing or the like) could win the jackpot, but his attacks will be followed more closely in coming years and his TT is beyond average ...
Barguil was strong this year, but it's to be seen if he can lead a team (I doubt it) ...
Latour and Gudu need to prove themselves, I haven't seen anything yet to suggest them being GT-winning material ...

so all in all, expectations wouldn't be too high from my side .... I would even have thought Jalabert and Virenque were closer to wins in GTs than any of the current french riders will be ...

 

[Brullnux]

Thomas is 31. He isn't next generation.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Thomas is 31. He isn't next generation.

Yeah. "Froome and Porte will be 33 next Tour, so here's Thomas, who will be a mere 32 year-old whippersnapper".

 

[loge1884]

Re:

Thomas is 31. He isn't next generation.

well, Chris Horner started his GT-winning career at 42

 

[DNP-Old]

It'll be Gaudu.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Thomas is 31. He isn't next generation.

well, Chris Horner started his GT-winning career at 42

That doesn't make him part of the same generation as Nibali though, or Bala.

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

Thomas is 31. He isn't next generation.

well, Chris Horner started his GT-winning career at 42

That doesn't make him part of the same generation as Nibali though, or Bala.

His coming to race in Europe in 2004-2005 might.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

With a solid route design, none stands a chance against Domoulin.

 

[Lexman]

Of all youngsters Guillaume Martin would be the guy to watch, finishing 21st in his first Tdf.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Have to say, I thought it would be Latour, but his development has been slightly disappointing. Was hoping for better from him when appearing to ride somewhat for himself in the first week of this Tour

 

[Ruudz0r]

David Gaudu is an insane talent, but Bardet will already (well almost certain) be on the podium for the 2nd year in a row, so he certainly has a shot as well.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Thomas is 31. He isn't next generation.

well, Chris Horner started his GT-winning career at 42

That doesn't make him part of the same generation as Nibali though, or Bala.

His coming to race in Europe in 2004-2005 might.

That was a comeback though, weren't his first European races in the other millennium?

 

[Billie]

Since when is Geraint Thomas a GC contender LOL?

 

[Velolover2]

Geraint T. is more of a pure all-rounder. Not really a 100% stage racer. And he is almost as old as Froome/Porte. I'd be a shame if he choses to become a stage racer at that age and skip the classics entirely.

If Dumoulin continues to improve in the coming years, he might be almost unbeatable like Froome used to be.

 

[Gigs_98]

When people say that Pinot has an advantage over Bardet, Barguil,... because he is good in TT's they are forgetting that when Pinot has a good TT shape his climbing gets way worse. Pinot counted as a horrible TT'er before 2016, then improved a lot in that discipline but to a high price since his climbing level was nowhere near good enough to win a gt. Then this year his climbing improved again but looking at the giro results you can hardly argue that his TT shape is anywhere near as good as last year.

 

[swissfr]

Re:

Agree with the above. I think Gaudu has the best chance to win multiple Tours, but that's much easier said than done as a 53kg climber. Pinot has the best chance to win a Grand Tour, on the basis of his (peak) time trialling. Latour also fits that mold, but he has yet to show he has the consistency. Alaphillipe is similar in what he's lacking but different in what he has going for him. He might have done well on this year's parcours, but as Paris-Nice showed, he still lacks endurance.

Bardet, Barguil (1991, but who's splitting hairs) and Pinot are from (or nearly from) the same "Class of 1990" as GT winners Quintana, Aru and Dumoulin, all of which have shown higher ceilings. Again, I can only see Pinot beating them on good form. But he's my favourite out of the French GC contenders, so take that with a grain of salt.

Lol you compare the tour with Vuelta / Giro?

 

[MikeTichondrius]

The responses so far confuse me a bit. I find it hard to see past Bardet as the clear best climber of the bunch. He'll more likely than not make it a second podium in a row by consistently climbing with the best. But yes, his TT is sorely lacking, and his attacks were next to null this TDF (so were everyone else's for the most part TBH).

It *would* be Pinot as he has a better TT and I've seen him climb just as well at his best, but he lacks the sheer mental strength. Bardet is much more solid. Barely seen a bad day from him. Pinot just comes off as a lot shakier. Shame considering how much he impressed me in the early days.

Barguil has impressed me, and there's no doubt in my mind he's very strong. But I still need to see a Bardet-esque performance to put him on the same level. Amazing stage hunter though. I see him as more of a Virenque or Moreau than Bardet.

Funny how Pierre Rolland used to be the next big thing and then *poof*.

Not sure about Latour and Gaudu. Need to see more from them.

 

[The Hegelian]

Agree with the above post - I really think Bardet is the real deal. Proven talent + very consistent + can read the race well + has the mentality necessary to win a GT. He'll win one, especially if ASO design with him in mind (again).

Pinot looks more well rounded, but he's always had an erratic quality to him. And we need to see how Barguil will go with the pressure of genuine leadership/expectation on his shoulders. That's another reason to give Bardet a big tick - led his team brilliantly this year.

 

[cellardoor]

I tend to take the view that a pure climber can't normally win the tour unless they get lucky (misfortune of others), are a ridiculously strong climber (Pantani) or perhaps if there isn't a good all rounder for a few years. Once Froome declines I expect there will be other allrounders about to prevent Bardet winnng like Dumoulin or perhaps even Roglic. So Bardet and Barguil don't seem like likely winners despite Bardet's (probable) 2 podiums. There is a big difference between a podium and winning. I guess Bardet could nick a Tour in the right circumstances, but I don't see any current French rider as having the goods to win multiple Tours.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

With a solid route design, none stands a chance against Domoulin.

You mean... there's no point in looking for a French hope, because Dumoulin will beat them all anyway?

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

With a solid route design, none stands a chance against Domoulin.

You mean... there's no point in looking for a French hope, because Dumoulin will beat them all anyway?

And because apparently there's only one way to make solid route designs.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

I tend to take the view that a pure climber can't normally win the tour unless they get lucky (misfortune of others), are a ridiculously strong climber (Pantani) or perhaps if there isn't a good all rounder for a few years. Once Froome declines I expect there will be other allrounders about to prevent Bardet winnng like Dumoulin or perhaps even Roglic. So Bardet and Barguil don't seem like likely winners despite Bardet's (probable) 2 podiums. There is a big difference between a podium and winning. I guess Bardet could nick a Tour in the right circumstances, but I don't see any current French rider as having the goods to win multiple Tours.

Fair point. Interesting how TT powerhouses can drop a bit of weight and radically improve their climbing, but climbers very often start and finish their careers as goats who can never TT to save themselves. We need to ask though: how much does Bardet need to improve to become a genuine threat?

Not that much, surely. i.e. to minimize loses. Also bear in mind that it's pretty rare to have even one (let alone two) long flat Indurain type courses. Some years have a hill tt, and maybe a rolling course. So it will come down a bit to parcours. It helps being French!