From Racehorse to Donkey

[blackcat]

2nd punishment is crap when riders go thru career sans censure

 

[Ferminal]

IMO Evans just set a benchmark.

 

[D-Queued]

IMO Evans just set a benchmark.

Nobody seems to have mentioned/suggested this... but what about a missed connection (supplies didn't come through) or a bad bag on the second rest day?

Makes more sense than Liggit's explanation.

Dave.

 

[Kender]

Well if you believe the excuses, Cuddles did get a stomach bug. that's going to mean you run out of energy in the harder stages.

 

[BroDeal]

Well if you believe the excuses, Cuddles did get a stomach bug. that's going to mean you run out of energy in the harder stages.

I would believe it with Evans. Not that I don't think he has doped in the past, but he has the raw numbers to do well without doping if the sport actually cleaned up.

 

[veganrob]

What are the punishments for getting busted a second time? I'd imagine they are potentially a lot harsher. I think this lies behind a lot of the poorer performances (although on your list above Levi, Menchov & Kloden could just be getting on a bit).

My pet theory is that people who have been caught (or have ongoing investigations that may end up incriminating them) are much less likely to gamble on getting caught again (e.g. Valverde, Basso, Scarponi). These riders are still on lucrative contracts and might not want to risk losing that at this later stage on their career when even a 2 year ban would really bite. Whereas rolling the dice when they were 27 or 28 would mean they'd still have plenty of earning potential post-ban in the forgiving world of professional cycling.

I'm not too surprised to see that arguably the most outlandish GT performances we've seen in recent years come from riders who haven't been caught red-handed before and had less to lose as they were heading out of contract (e.g. Cobo & Froome).

A test of my random theory will be the Vuelta, where I expect a once-bitten twice-shy Contador to get a beating off Chris Froome & Cobo, even though both of them have a TdF in their legs. Although at 29, and with such forgiving and steadfast backing from Spanish political & sporting bodies, Contador may think he can risk returning to his reduced, post-2008 level of doping.

Not same for everybody. Lets see how Valverde does next year. Basso and Scarponi though talented are getting a bit older.
COntador on the other hand raced 2011 Giro knowing he could still be suspended. Didn't seem to affect his performance. He has more natural talent than anybody, is smart as any rider, thrives under pressure. He is simply the best. Can't wait for his return.

 

[Raul Ramaya]

Thinking that the David Anthony bust (see "fattie masters" thread) might be grist for this particular thread. Last I saw, he had not yet released his confessional. If someone could find out when he started perhaps we could get a concrete sense of how much of an impact EPO has on a non-racehorse.

From what I read, he didn't ride seriously until 4 years ago (if at all). Also read he went from Cat 5 to Cat 3 from 2008 to now (just moved up this season) -- which doesn't seem that great. Unless he just started doping this year...

 

[jonjungel]

Leipheimer broke his leg in early april. IMO that was the main reason for him underperforming at the tour. Granted, he was ok in TdS, but so was Rui Costa.

 

[PedalPusher]

Recent conversations with long time pro cyclists now "retired" seemed to think that the peloton is nervous and twitchy this year. With the Armstrong investigation over the past couple years, prominent riders meeting with the Grand Jury etc. No one feels safe. That the UCI will scapegoat somebody bigger than usual to make it look like they are on top of it.

Not as many riders will to take as big as risk this year suspecting that the UCI will be head hunting...low and behold, Frank pops. And all agreed that was a weird incident. Didn't make sense on so many levels.

I can't remember what stage it was after, but Levi's comments were almost an admission...he was talking about watts and time..to the effect of his 375 watts versus the 450 that were being put out at the front consistently. Need to try and find it.

But I think the OP is on to something here. But most of the aforementioned riders thought Sky was suspicious and taking the Postal playbook out for a spin with some tweaks, but dialed it back enough to make the numbers look good for a "reasonable doubt". Suspicions more heavily on Froome and Co. than BW.

A lot of top riders seemed really out of form this year....

 

[Arnout]

To be honest Leipheimer is just getting older. I would be careful using him as benchmark.

 

[PedalPusher]

To be honest Leipheimer is just getting older. I would be careful using him as benchmark.

True, but he aged a lot in one year, he rode the wheels off last year ToC

 

[Benotti69]

Leipheimer broke his leg in early april. IMO that was the main reason for him underperforming at the tour. Granted, he was ok in TdS, but so was Rui Costa.

But Froome missed early season too iirc.

 

[Pentacycle]

True, but he aged a lot in one year, he road the wheels off last year ToC

He hasn't performed well in GT's since 2009, but he's always been there in one week stage races. He could still win some of those ofc.

Imo guys like Karpets Haussler, Bennati or Davis are much more interesting.
They've had big results in their career, but are obviously underperforming.

 

[Ferminal]

Is it fair to say that Leipheimer has only really been a top GT rider in 2007-2008?

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

Just a few racehorses turning into donkeys:

* Peter Luttenberger
* Rinero
* Nardello
* Julich
* Boogerd
* Botero
* Sevilla
* Beloki
* Mancebo

Etc etc.

Some things are too obvious.

 

[the asian]

Leipheimer is 39. Too old to respond for the juice.
Or may be the good Doctor Ibarguen is a classics specialist.
Gilbert & Vanedert were the ones who benefited mostly from him, not poor VDB.

 

[Caruut]

Leipheimer is 39. Too old to respond for the juice.
Or may be the good Doctor Ibarguen is a classics specialist.
Gilbert & Vanedert were the ones who benefited mostly from him, not poor VDB.

Vanendert's 2011 and 2012 seasons are really hard to compare. In 2011, he was a domestique in the classics and a leader in the Tour, and in 2012 he was a leader in the classics and a domestique in the Tour. His results reflect that. 2012 does look worse, but it's sort of apples and oranges.

 

[L'arriviste]

Alessandro Ballan
Jens Voigt (tin hat - perhaps it's just age)
Damiano Cunego
Filippo Pozzato
Andrey Kashechkin
Alessandro Petacchi (this year - old but a bit sudden)
Vladimir Gusev
Emanuele Sella

 

[Caruut]

Alessandro Ballan
Jens Voigt (tin hat - perhaps it's just age)
Damiano Cunego
Filippo Pozzato
Andrey Kashechkin
Alessandro Petacchi (this year - old but a bit sudden)
Vladimir Gusev
Emanuele Sella

Might age have a double effect - not only are you declining physically, but the motivation to carry on doping must decrease when your chances of winning do too.

Pozzato and Ballan both had pretty good classics seasons - they were the strongest in RvV, where Boonen hung onto Pozzato by a thread. Then Ballan was probably 3rd strongest in P-R after Boonen and Boom, while Pozzato was looking good until he punctured.

Then Pozzato got injured during the Giro.

Petacchi is pretty obvious.

 

[Benotti69]

Leipheimer is 39. Too old to respond for the juice.
Or may be the good Doctor Ibarguen is a classics specialist.
Gilbert & Vanedert were the ones who benefited mostly from him, not poor VDB.

Horner seemed to respond well this year

Hincapie did well too on his specially prepared no hard bits juice.

 

[therhodeo]

To me the wreck with the car throws Levi's season out as being good evidence of anything. Doping, not doping, whatever it just changes stuff when you have to recover from that trauma.

 

[Ferminal]

Alessandro Ballan
Jens Voigt (tin hat - perhaps it's just age)
Damiano Cunego
Filippo Pozzato
Andrey Kashechkin
Alessandro Petacchi (this year - old but a bit sudden)
Vladimir Gusev
Emanuele Sella

Gusev would be a very good rouleur without extreme doping. It wasn't until he jumped on the Hog Special that he started to climb and turn into more of a stage racer.

I think the lesson in many of these (Cunego, Di Luca, Armstrong etc) is that you can be very competitive in classics and shorter races on a limited doping regime, but for most of them winning a GT was only capable with the extreme preparation.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

Damiano Cunego

He just has a natural high HCT

I still think Cunego was a product of the Pantani death earlier that year, the tifosi needed a new hero. We never saw him climb again like 2004, quite a mystery, lol.

There are natural high HCT though, Dutch former rider Danny Nelisse was tested two weeks ago and had 52.

 

[Arnout]

Petacchi has been in decline for a while. On his day, he's still a very good sprinter but it's quite natural that his explosiveness and top speed is not what it was. Still, he came 2nd in a Tour sprint stage this year, not too bad.

I'd say it would be more suspicious if he didn't decline. Sometimes I just don't get the clinic If you're 40 and are still performing (Horner, Leipheimer) you're suspicious, if you're 40 and you're declining, you're suspicious. I guess the general consensus here is that the majority of riders is on some sort of dope, but you can't use both these arguments to prove that at the same time

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Is it fair to say that Leipheimer has only really been a top GT rider in 2007-2008?

I don't think so. But it depends on how you define "top".

8th in 2002
9th in 2004
6th in 2005 (5th if you remove Jan, I don't)
12th in 2006 (11th if you remove Floyd, I don't).

He was searching for a top 5 in 2003 when on a strong Rabobank team, but crashed out. In 2006 he was aiming for the podium, but had a bad first ITT (missed supply? This was the Fuentes year), but had two good stages.

3rd in the 2001 Vuelta
5th in the 2009 Giro

To me there's no doubt he doped in his career, along with most everyone else, and I think he's going to admit it here in a few months. I also think it's 99% likely this Tour he rode clean. But he's also at the end of his career (in the PT anyway), and a broken leg earlier this year didn't help at all.

I wouldn't call him a Donkey-Racehorse-Donkey. More like a Farm Steed-Racehorse-Farm Steed. If that makes sense.