Not responding to any thought in particular, just voicing my opinion about Froome's dominance/ advantages...
The only place someone like Nairo is going to be superior to Froome is in w/kg. To use that to his advantage, Nairo needs a long, one-on-one ascent where the slight differential results in a slowly expanding gap. If you are Froome, how do you deal with that?
1. Build a train that shortens the fight to just a few kilometers of one-on-one where 5 minute threshold means more than 20 minute to hour threshold.
3. Use every trick available, (legal, questionable, illegal), to minimize the w/kg disadvantage.
2. Grab time here and there in the non-TT, non-climbing portions of the race that favor your overall power advantage. Build up enough to counter the 30 seconds Nairo might pick up on the MTFs.
3. Use your power advantage to dominate the TT.
4. Get a lead early, so that when you finally are isolated with Nairo, that you only need to follow his wheel, thereby negating his w/kg advantage, and potentially even crushing him in the last 2k as he burns himself trying.
5. Don't crash.
This forces Nairo to dominate the mountains, hide well from the wind, not crash, beat the Sky Train, TT out of his mind, or hope for a jour sans from Froome to have any chance. Less powerful riders have a disadvantage everywhere in cycling except when the road climbs, therefore more chances for bad days.Wind, cobbles, sprints, TTs, accelerations, pushed around by the pellet on itself, TTTs, downhills, 6.8 kg bikes, etc.
It is easier to win the Tour by starting with 475w of sustainable power and 6.2 w/kg than with 400w and 6.3 w/kg. Both require doping in my world view. However the doping and training path to get Froome's numbers is far easier for a much bigger and formally heavier rider. I'm not sure the dope exists to allow Nairo to make up the pure watts advantage to someone who is 10% larger.
For what Nairo Quintana is, he impresses me for how close he does get. It explains how Porte can look so impressive in certain situations vs. Froome, but never actually get close to winning a GT. W/kg will not win the TDF unless total power is also close to that of your rivals. To beat Froome, you need to be within 20-30 watts in total power, and exceed him in w/kg. His training and "supplementation" regime will never allow a rival to be much more powerful but even lighter.
The person who beats Froome in the TDF has close to his raw power and w/kg, but has more inherent natural ability, is better on a bike, etc. Contador and Nibali are the only two currently that seem to have that. Nibali doesn't seem as disciplined in his build up, and Contador gives up too much in raw power when the conditions (cobbles, wind, sprints) demand it.
Smaller stage races and the Giro and Vuelta have fewer advantages for pure power, leveling the playing field for the Quintanas, Portes, Arus, etc. The Tour is a wide open racetrack by comparison.
The only place someone like Nairo is going to be superior to Froome is in w/kg. To use that to his advantage, Nairo needs a long, one-on-one ascent where the slight differential results in a slowly expanding gap. If you are Froome, how do you deal with that?
1. Build a train that shortens the fight to just a few kilometers of one-on-one where 5 minute threshold means more than 20 minute to hour threshold.
3. Use every trick available, (legal, questionable, illegal), to minimize the w/kg disadvantage.
2. Grab time here and there in the non-TT, non-climbing portions of the race that favor your overall power advantage. Build up enough to counter the 30 seconds Nairo might pick up on the MTFs.
3. Use your power advantage to dominate the TT.
4. Get a lead early, so that when you finally are isolated with Nairo, that you only need to follow his wheel, thereby negating his w/kg advantage, and potentially even crushing him in the last 2k as he burns himself trying.
5. Don't crash.
This forces Nairo to dominate the mountains, hide well from the wind, not crash, beat the Sky Train, TT out of his mind, or hope for a jour sans from Froome to have any chance. Less powerful riders have a disadvantage everywhere in cycling except when the road climbs, therefore more chances for bad days.Wind, cobbles, sprints, TTs, accelerations, pushed around by the pellet on itself, TTTs, downhills, 6.8 kg bikes, etc.
It is easier to win the Tour by starting with 475w of sustainable power and 6.2 w/kg than with 400w and 6.3 w/kg. Both require doping in my world view. However the doping and training path to get Froome's numbers is far easier for a much bigger and formally heavier rider. I'm not sure the dope exists to allow Nairo to make up the pure watts advantage to someone who is 10% larger.
For what Nairo Quintana is, he impresses me for how close he does get. It explains how Porte can look so impressive in certain situations vs. Froome, but never actually get close to winning a GT. W/kg will not win the TDF unless total power is also close to that of your rivals. To beat Froome, you need to be within 20-30 watts in total power, and exceed him in w/kg. His training and "supplementation" regime will never allow a rival to be much more powerful but even lighter.
The person who beats Froome in the TDF has close to his raw power and w/kg, but has more inherent natural ability, is better on a bike, etc. Contador and Nibali are the only two currently that seem to have that. Nibali doesn't seem as disciplined in his build up, and Contador gives up too much in raw power when the conditions (cobbles, wind, sprints) demand it.
Smaller stage races and the Giro and Vuelta have fewer advantages for pure power, leveling the playing field for the Quintanas, Portes, Arus, etc. The Tour is a wide open racetrack by comparison.