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Future GT Winner (Edition 2016)

Page 2 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Adam Yates

    Votes: 32 21.2%
  • Esteban Chaves

    Votes: 74 49.0%
  • Miguel Ángel López

    Votes: 47 31.1%
  • Mikel Landa

    Votes: 44 29.1%
  • Rafal Majka

    Votes: 6 4.0%
  • Richie Porte

    Votes: 14 9.3%
  • Romain Bardet

    Votes: 33 21.9%
  • Steven Kruijswijk

    Votes: 30 19.9%
  • Thibaut Pinot

    Votes: 15 9.9%
  • Tom Dumoulin

    Votes: 45 29.8%

  • Total voters
    151
Bardet is the major favorite to win the anniversary Tour of Italy imho. He certainly ain't the most talented climber around, but he's got some oldschool panache and race instinct as well as excellent bike handling skills and the will to take risks in order to win or lose. That exactly makes out most of his immense positive improvement in the last 2 years since his 2014 breakthrough in the Vosges! Add to that his more than decent punch when he attacks and his professionalism (He ain't talks about the Auvergne as his office with no reason when on his bike!) and you got the mentality of a champ. At least at the Giro where exactly this qualities are required in order to win!

He's in fact the New Kid on the Block in Europe. Not Aru, Pinot, etc. ...
 
Somebody between Lopez and Chaves.

Lopez, I haven't seen enough of him to be sure. His potential looks big.

Chaves. It is a positive that his peak has been delayed by his big accident and can potentially go up furthermore. This coupled with his aggressive riding style might end up giving him his first GT. his aggressive style compensates for his TT weakness.
 
Aug 16, 2013
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Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
Valv.Piti said:
DNP-Old said:
While I'm at it: Richard Carapaz.

Hmm.. he is already 23. What makes you think he will improve so much?
I don't really think he'll ever win a GT, I'm just a big fan of his. Egan Bernal however is almost a certainty to win one.

Purito never won a GT. And Bernal is even worse as a TT'er. And he still has to show he can dominate the climbs in a Giro/Vuelta.

I hope he can win too, but way too early and uncertain he can actually win one.
 
Re: Re:

Arredondo said:
DNP-Old said:
Valv.Piti said:
DNP-Old said:
While I'm at it: Richard Carapaz.

Hmm.. he is already 23. What makes you think he will improve so much?
I don't really think he'll ever win a GT, I'm just a big fan of his. Egan Bernal however is almost a certainty to win one.

Purito never won a GT. And Bernal is even worse as a TT'er. And he still has to show he can dominate the climbs in a Giro/Vuelta.

I hope he can win too, but way too early and uncertain he can actually win one.
Bernal's potential is through the roof. A rider who gets the results he does in their first ever season on the road has the potential to be a future legend.
 
Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
Arredondo said:
DNP-Old said:
Valv.Piti said:
DNP-Old said:
While I'm at it: Richard Carapaz.

Hmm.. he is already 23. What makes you think he will improve so much?
I don't really think he'll ever win a GT, I'm just a big fan of his. Egan Bernal however is almost a certainty to win one.

Purito never won a GT. And Bernal is even worse as a TT'er. And he still has to show he can dominate the climbs in a Giro/Vuelta.

I hope he can win too, but way too early and uncertain he can actually win one.
Bernal's potential is through the roof. A rider who gets the results he does in their first ever season on the road has the potential to be a future legend.
Like the new Dutch Armstrong Robert Gesink? That's history in every possible way, pal. Still can happen to both Bernal and Lopez!
 
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Adam Yates: If he decides to target the Giro/Vuelta one day. I think his engine is a little bit too limited for the high mountains. Shorter, steeper climbs suits him a bit more, therefore i think his chances in la Vuelta is bigger then in the Tour.

Esteban Chaves: Will be difficult. I compare him to Purito. His TT is slighty better, but he still loses 3 minutes in a long flat TT on the best GT-rider (Froome). That's too much. Therefore he's got no chance at all in a Tour, and also in a GT with more then 1 TT. A hard Giro is maybe his best option. But he still has to show he can dominate in the mountains, not following just really well. I think he's got a 30% chance to win one.

Miguel Ángel López: If he progresses the way we all think he will do, he can win a Giro for sure. Don't know yet about his chances in a Murito-Vuelta. Also his TT is uncertain too atm. So winning the Tour will be more complicated. But winning a Giro in the future? For sure.

Mikel Landa: I really hope so, but i don't think he will do. His TT is a bit vulnerable, and he has too many off-days. He seems to lack the mentality to stay focused for three weeks. So no, onfortunately not :)

Rafal Majka: No. He can podium in a Vuelta or Giro, but nothing more. He climbs well, but not among the very very best. His TT is reasonably well, but not top-material.

Richie Porte: No. Because he will target the Tour in the next 5 years. And he is a lesser version of Froome. His TT is good, but not Indurain or Froome material. He can dominate a mountain stage, but he's too inconsistent too be on the top for three weeks. I think he can win a Giro, but he will not target it. So no.

Romain Bardet: No. Good rider, but i don't see all the fuzz. Like Pinot, he lacks a really good TT and his climbing is not that spectaculair. He can reach the podium by attacking/picking the right moment. But in a mano-o-mano against guys like Quintana and Froome, he's really no threath.

Steven Kruijswijk: I fear he's a typical one-day fly, in terms of winning a GT. His biggest chance is the Giro, but in La Vuelta (too many short steep climbs) and Tour (level a bit too high) he has no chance.

Thibaut Pinot: No. Overrated rider. He doesn't belong to the 5 best climbers in the world. And he's mentally weak.

Tom Dumoulin: No. Got his chance in La Vuelta. Only in a Vuelta/Giro with no multiple big mountain stages and a long ITT + prologue. But hey, Wiggo has already retired ;)
 
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Re:

DNP-Old said:
I don't get the comparison with Rodriguez either. He didn't not win GT's because of his lack of CRI skills, he didn't win them because he lacked a brain. Fuente Dé, Giro 2012, e.g.

You don't know if Bernal is not lacking brains either. Purito also won races in his career thanks to good tactics.
 
Re: Re:

[quote="["staubsauger":1p9fh0o1]
Like the new Dutch Armstrong Robert Gesink? That's history in every possible way, pal. Still can happen to both Bernal and Lopez![/quote]
If that's the way of thinking, you can shoot down every prediction in this thread. Because hey, it could always happen.
 
Re: Re:

Arredondo said:
DNP-Old said:
I don't get the comparison with Rodriguez either. He didn't not win GT's because of his lack of CRI skills, he didn't win them because he lacked a brain. Fuente Dé, Giro 2012, e.g.

You don't know if Bernal is not lacking brains either. Purito also won races in his career thanks to good tactics.
I think Bernal has the talent to overcome a not properly working brain. What he has shown in Trentino and Coppi e Bartali was insane, considering his background. I don't like the would/could/should game, but he already could have won Coppi e Bartali if he didn't crash on bad roads.
 
Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
[quote="["staubsauger":39at8hqv]
Like the new Dutch Armstrong Robert Gesink? That's history in every possible way, pal. Still can happen to both Bernal and Lopez!
If that's the way of thinking, you can shoot down every prediction in this thread. Because hey, it could always happen.[/quote]
Yeah, ofc that's true as well. But riders that peak high at a very young age somehow tend to miss some kind of improvement later on often. That's subjective of course and they're certainly guys around like Quintana and Aru that disprove my believe.
 
Why only one Yates?
it will be very difficult for anybody to win a GT over the next 2-3 years, the big 4 have won 11 of the last 12, and it would have probably been all 12 if Froome and Quintana hadn't dropped out of the Vuelta last year. Therefore although i think if all the stars align Richie Porte is talent wise the best of the rest, i really can't see him winning a GT.
If Landa can get his Giro legs back he will win a GT.
 
Re:

Singer01 said:
Why only one Yates?
it will be very difficult for anybody to win a GT over the next 2-3 years, the big 4 have won 11 of the last 12, and it would have probably been all 12 if Froome and Quintana hadn't dropped out of the Vuelta last year. Therefore although i think if all the stars align Richie Porte is talent wise the best of the rest, i really can't see him winning a GT.
If Landa can get his Giro legs back he will win a GT.
Quintana didn't drop out last year, he was out of shape and had a bad day. Froome wasn't going that well before he crashed uphill, and then withdrew. I don't think he had the shape to win last year. Porte is now too old to win a GT, unless if he's lucky.
 
Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
Singer01 said:
Why only one Yates?
it will be very difficult for anybody to win a GT over the next 2-3 years, the big 4 have won 11 of the last 12, and it would have probably been all 12 if Froome and Quintana hadn't dropped out of the Vuelta last year. Therefore although i think if all the stars align Richie Porte is talent wise the best of the rest, i really can't see him winning a GT.
If Landa can get his Giro legs back he will win a GT.

Quintana didn't drop out last year, he was out of shape and had a bad day
. Froome wasn't going that well before he crashed uphill, and then withdrew. I don't think he had the shape to win last year. Porte is now too old to win a GT, unless if he's lucky.
quite right, i was getting mixed up with 2014.
 
I see that I was one of the few who believe that Pinot could win a Giro in the future. I believe Landa and Chaves are both likely future winners, while Pinot and Lopez are more uncertain, but still far more likely than the rest. I don't think neither Bardet nor Dumoulin will get a GT win. I can see that I voted for Majka last year, but I have lost whatever hope I had of him winning a GT.

Red Rick said:
I think it would be nice to make a list of all active riders holding a GT title, and to list all active GC riders by year with say, a top 5 in a GT. That might show us how much we should expect from the 23-24 year old crowd to make it. I may get the idea that we're consistently overexpecting from that crowd.

I think the best way is to look at the list of most recent first time winners (from the 2014 thread):

Netserk said:
To get some perspective, here's a list of the most recent first-time GT winners:

[Aru - Vuelta '15, red.]
Quintana - Giro '14
Horner - Vuelta '13
Froome - Tour '13
Wiggins - Tour '12
Hesjedal - Giro '12
Cobo - Vuelta '11
Evans - Tour '11
Nibali - Vuelta '10
Valverde - Vuelta '09
Sastre - Tour '08
Menchov - Vuelta '07
Contador - Tour '07
Di Luca - Giro '07
Vino - Vuelta '06
Landis - Tour '06
Basso - Giro '06

So with time I think several of today's (young) contenders will take the final step and win one of the big ones.
 
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Well i voted for Chavez, but is not granted. His best chance is a Giro probably or a lucky Vuelta, but in fact for every rider not named Froome or Quintana, the Giro is the best chance to make it happen in the 2 years to come, with the 2-top riders having the Tour as primary goal and the double with the Vuelta as secondary one (something like this year). Tour is out of reach for Chavez and every other rider in the list. But what Giro and La Vuelta has shown us in the past is that the unexpected could always happen.
 

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