Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

[spalco]

I am a bit surprised why are all so sure about Bernal and so few votes for Landa. Whats talking for Bernal? Youth?

I'm also surprised about the confidence in Bernal. He's had one decent-ish Tour, and although it's more difficult as not being designated the leader, the jump from decent to victory is huge.

He may well win 5 Tours, who knows, but I'm not seeing it yet.

The bolded bit is an amusing germanism btw, Von Mises.

 

[Angliru]

I am a bit surprised why are all so sure about Bernal and so few votes for Landa. Whats talking for Bernal? Youth?

He's the new hottness. The latest and greatest young gun that is fresh in everyone's minds along with Mas. Landa has had his share of ups, downs and inconsistent performances over the past two years to leave the taste of doubt in our mouths. A year or more ago he would be given more support because he was all about the potential to achieve with few bad performances cluttering up his past.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Bernal is the most obvious one. I believe he has the potential to tie Contador's 9 and maybe even get 10, but that means that he needs to start winning from 2020. Which I believe he will. Yeah, you can all laugh and tell me to stop hype him, but I call it as I see it.

Next up for me is Mas. What I saw in this Vuelta has really convinced me, he IS the real deal. The prototype stage racer in this day and age IMO - not necessarily in the Tour tho with the heavy Sky train, at least for now.

Lopez next. Really consistent this year, but havent hit the level I expected after last year's climbing exhibitions ina La Vuelta on three days in a row (or something similar). Im not as sure as Mas and certainly not Bernal, but I think he will win a Giro at some point. I dont believe him to win a Tour and it also depends a lot on which GTs he focuses on.

Lastly I voted Rogla, but I dno. The competition is super stiff and he could risk just banging his head against the Sky wall with the TdF-focus he has gotten (which makes sense since he can combine that with a heavy week long stage race schedule).

 

[Red Rick]

I just hate it so much when people start talking about X athlete achieving Y record when they've not even been at the top yet. Seen a little too much of that in tennis lately. A lot of *** can happen in an athletes career. Especially cycling. Bernal already had 2 massive crashes this year.

Bernal is very good. That's to state the obvious. We'll see if he does great when leading a GT next year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

I just hate it so much when people start talking about X athlete achieving Y record when they've not even been at the top yet. Seen a little too much of that in tennis lately. A lot of **** can happen in an athletes career. Especially cycling. Bernal already had 2 massive crashes this year.

Bernal is very good. That's to state the obvious. We'll see if he does great when leading a GT next year.

Obviously, you can't predict every pitfall in life. I think everyone here understands that it is impossible to say for sure if a certain athlete will ever reach a certain goal or not. However this is clearly a thread filled with hypothesis, people giving their opinion on whether a certain athlete will be "able" to win a GT, having the level required to grow into a GT winner. If that will ever happen, is an entirely different matter. I think this is clear to everyone who's been posting in this thread, that this is not about predicting with certainty what will happen in the future, rather to speculate and debate. So i don't see the issue really.

Like i said before, i can see Lopez win a GT, not because he will dominate other contenders (because i doubt he ever really will), but just because "*** happens". Look at the Giro 2012, if Hesjedal can win a GT, then anyone in that list can win a GT.

 

[Tonton]

I didn't realize that I could vote for more than one: guess who I voted for ?

Mas is a no-brainer. After this Vuelta, he's so young, I'm a believer. Chaves is interesting.

After them, it's a guess. For some, it's race circumstances and route design: Bardet, Pinot, SK. Intestinal fortitude, i.e. risk-taking for others, MAL or Carapaz. Or fulfilling potential like Bernal and Gaudu.

Roglic? Others need to take him seriously, race against him and put him in a stage win mode. Leave him in the GC picture, and Primoz can Dumoulin.

I'm not giving up on Pinot and Bardet, but stars have to line-up.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re:

I voted Roglic, Bernal and Mas. I didn't know whether to vote Lopez or not, but in the end I left him out as he will need to improve his time trialing to have a chance to win the Tour, and probably also the Giro.

+1

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Amazing how quickly hype can die down, and how early in a career. If we had had this discussion a year ago, Sivakov would have been on everyone's lips, Gaudu has only had one mention here which would not have been the case fairly recently, and those who took up the Paddy Power bet on Eddie Dunbar winning a TdF at some stage are fining no reassurance here.

And the oldest of those has only just turned 22.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Amazing how quickly hype can die down, and how early in a career. If we had had this discussion a year ago, Sivakov would have been on everyone's lips, Gaudu has only had one mention here which would not have been the case fairly recently, and those who took up the Paddy Power bet on Eddie Dunbar winning a TdF at some stage are fining no reassurance here.

And the oldest of those has only just turned 22.

The hype for those has never been as well grounded as the hype for bernal or Mas is right now. I mean Mas was hyped last year already but in a thread like this I never would have voted for him because I hadn't seen enough. Same here. Both Sivakov and Gaudu might still turn out to be multiple gt winners but they haven't shown enough to make me think that's likely

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ask what the hype for Froome was in 2008 I think most of us would expect him to top 30 a GT at some point maybe, but not more.

edit: Dumoulin at the start of his career, most of us would expect a TT rider and maybe classics.. also turned out different.

My point being, there might be good time triallists or young riders who have another type of growth surpassing the Mas and Lopez guys in the future

 

[Red Rick]

Bigger riders in general mature a bit more slowly. Purer climbers mature pretty quickly, and those you see coming from a mile away

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Rogla still a bit underrated as a climber I think, he doesn´t need time trialling to win a GT, if he is in his 3rd week Tour shape nobody is better than him in proper mountain stages , only equals are Dumo, Froome, Thomas (Im very sceptical about him for the comings years) and Bernal, but Primoz is clearly the strongest in steeps gradients like Mende o Vuelta type of finish. Plus he is improving each year like a U25 rider due to his unorthodox cycling background.

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic' ITT was a disaster though.

I really hope he spend too much time focusing in the Tour.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Roglic' ITT was a disaster though.

I really hope he spend too much time focusing in the Tour.

Well.. disaster? He was like 7th at 1 minute. To the world ITT champion and to the best stage-racer of the last 7 years.

I mean.. bit harsh to call it a disaster

 

[del1962]

Definitely not a disaster, a solid but not spectacular time trial.

 

[luckyboy]

I wonder if Bernal will ride Giro-Vuelta next year. If so I could see him winning the Vuelta then already

 

[Cookster15]

Voted for Roglic, Mas and Bernal. But also Lopez maybe in the Vuelta.
I really wanted to vote for Richie but at his age I think he has blown it by being unable to stay on his bike. At 33 with these young guys coming through mean his opportunity has now passed. As an Aussie I hope someone like Jack Haig can continue to develop.

 

[lartiste]

I see as potential GT winner Mas, eventhough it is hard to tell after just one great performance. I also think of Bernal, Roglič and Kruijswijk. They all have potential to win, eventhough cocerning Lotto Jumbo duo in my opinion one GT each. I want to be very careful with Bernal since many colombians peaked early and were unable to repeat performance latter in the carrier.

I do not see potential to win GT in MAL since he is way to inconsistent and his TT is pure disaster. Also Landa never really proved himself and did not met the expectations. I know that he did not have to many opportunities, but from my point of view he is no capable of GT win. The same for Bardet.

Concerning Richard Carapaz I do not know, it depends, whether he will improve TT a bit.

And Thibault Pinot - I hope one day he will win but to be realistic he is podium candidate but even I am a bit sceptical whether he is really next GT winner.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I only voted Mas and Bernal. Lopez and Roglic both clearly have the potential but there's only 3 grand tours per year with other generations of riders to compete against too.

That said, Roglic is arguably the most complete rider of any stage racer: climbing descending time trialling, he's got the skillset for everything

 

[Pantani_lives]

It looks like the margin is big enough to declare Egan Bernal the winner of this poll. The 21-year old Columbian has been declared the next big thing. Thanks to anyone who voted and for all the comments.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Voted for Roglic, Mas and Bernal. But also Lopez maybe in the Vuelta.
I really wanted to vote for Richie but at his age I think he has blown it by being unable to stay on his bike. At 33 with these young guys coming through mean his opportunity has now passed. As an Aussie I hope someone like Jack Haig can continue to develop.

Haig and/or O’Connor should contend for a GT at some stage in their career if they get it right. IF Power can fully realise his potential he could as well, but that’s a big if.

 

[SafeBet]

As always, this forum knows best.
Only one vote for Carapaz!

 

[Sciatic]

Re:

Voted the same 4 as (almost) everyone. The others can podium, but I don't see them winning a GT. Maybe only Carapaz.

Kudos!

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

As always, this forum knows best.
Only one vote for Carapaz!

LOL. We know nothing!

 

[Cookster15]

I wonder how Bernal would have fared if he rode? I doubt he would be better than Carapaz, Nibali or even Landa uphill though. Top 5 I guess.