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Future GT Winner (Edition 2019)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

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    111
  • Poll closed .
Pantani_lives

Pantani_lives

May 3, 2010
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Welcome to the seventh edition of this yearly poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. This year was exceptional for having three rookie winners. And believe it or not, but all three were in last years's poll. These were last year's results:

Egan Bernal: 83 votes
Enric Mas: 70 votes
Primož Roglič: 67 votes
Miguel Ángel López: 43 votes
Mikel Landa: 9 votes
Steven Kruijswijk: 8 votes
Thibaut Pinot: 5 votes
Richard Carapaz: 4 votes
Richie Porte: 3 votes
Romain Bardet: 2 votes

(Carapaz received one extra vote after the Giro. This time the poll will close after five months.)

These are the winners of previous editions:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 ???

You have more than one vote. Vote for anyone you expect to win a GT at some point in his career. If you have riders in mind who aren't in the poll you can mention them in the forum.
 
Pantani_lives

Pantani_lives

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Escarabajo said:
You can keep putting Bardet and Porte until they retire! :)
Click to expand...
They fell off this year. I soon had eight certainties, and added Sivakov as a young talent with growing potential. For the final place I took Urán (7th in the Tour and three second places in the past) over Majka, Mollema, Porte, Bardet and some other old cronies. Last year's second Mas isn't included either after a weak season. I didn't really consider Soler, but it's not impossible.

I only voted for Pogacar and Evenepoel. Pogacar is obvious; Evenpoel still has everything to prove in the high mountains, but he's way ahead of his age. Kruijswijk, Landa and López remain candidates to win a Vuelta or Giro when everything goes right, but it usually doesn't.
 
tobydawq

tobydawq

Nov 16, 2013
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Where is Jakob Fuglsang!?!?!?!

No, I voted Sivakov, Evenepoel, Pogacar and Pinot but I also think that Enric Mas should be on the poll (certainly over guys like Urán and Buchmann).

Soler could also make a case for being on the poll but I wouldn't vote for him.

Last year I voted López but he doesn't really seem to be progressing and he is not good enough to win one yet (obviously, or he would have done it).

I hope Landa will win one one day but I think his time trial is too weak and he has to prove that he can rediscover his 2015 Giro climbing legs, otherwise he will not win.

To think Pogacar will not win a Grand Tour is absurd which the poll result shows, Sivakov rode very well in the Giro at age 21 and was the youngest rider to finish in the top 10 of a Grand Tour since almost forever, and it would be strange if he never were to win one, either.

Evenepoel is a chapter all of his own and even if his climbing hasn't been world-beating this year, he is just so unusual that you would be hard-pressed to reject the opportunity of him winning a Grand Tour.

And if Pinot can string together a whole Grand Tour at the level he showcased last autumn and this Tour, he will win one as well, but of course he does not have as much time as the other three.

Alaphilippe could take a Vuelta if they go back to "steep and short is the new black" but I don't think he will make it.

Buchmann has progressed steadily but I don't see him as a Grand Tour winner, and Urán and Kruijswijk have been around unsuccessfully too long for it to be realistic that they take one.

Besides Mas and Soler, I think that Daniel Martínez, Sergio Higuita, Iván Sosa, Laurens De Plus, David Gaudu, Adam Yates and Marc Hirschi could also have been on the list without me thinking it would have been perposterous.

Martínez has had a bad season due to injuries, but I think he has a high potential. Higuita has really rocketed into the scene and despite several crashes in the Vuelta, he got an impressive stage win where he proved that he could do more than "just" climb and sprint. Really exciting rider.

I see Sosa as one of the very best climbers in the world, and on a route short on TT kilometres he might be very difficult to live with (and he is still only 21).

De Plus rode impressively this summer in all terrains (high mountains, Ardennes terrain, time trials) and has really taken a leap this year. I hope he can get a chance to test himself next year, but it's difficult on that team.

Gaudu also progressed a lot this year, but he is weak in the TT and I don't see him being able to cover that deficit in the mountains as much as Sosa.

Adam Yates is not old enough to disregard completely yet, and Hirschi has just been incredibly consistent this season but is yet to prove whether high mountains are also something that he can do well in (he did become U23 WC on a mountainous course, so there's that).

I would also have liked to mention Esteban Chaves, but I fear he may not rediscover his best level again, and Zakarin, Porte and Bardet are definitely never winning Grand Tours.
 
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Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
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Really think Mas and Gaudu should be in this poll, don't really know though who to kick out other than Uran.
I voted Pogacar and evenepoel. Evenepoel is still kind of a longshot but he just seems too talented not to pick him. Pogacar simply looked insane for his age. I mean he is looking at least as good as bernal at his age and I didn't expect to say this again any time soon last season.
Sivakov hasn't shown enough for me yet especially considering how many other insanely talented young guys there are right now, but I can totally understand why one would pick him. I actually think Buchmann has a decent shot at winning a gt. He had a really good tour and most importantly he improved a lot from last year to this. That kinda sounds like carapaz last season who wasn't super young when he broke through, which was why people completely missed his improvement.
 
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perico

perico

Mar 11, 2009
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Enric Mas and probably Soler, but they weren’t included for some reason. Of the ones above, Pogacar is obvious. Pinot and Landa are probable. MAL is a maybe. Kruijswijk will be 3rd on Jumbo the pecking order and could drop further depending on the progression of De Plus. He’s also getting old.

I have no idea about Evenepoel since for all I know he could turn out to be Kwiatkowski in the high mountains. Hell of a rider though.
 
42x16ss

42x16ss

May 23, 2009
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Voted Pogacar, and only Pogacar.

Pinot always has his luck run out, which is a shame because he was riding like a GT winner at the TDF before his injury. Alaphilippe was brilliant at the Tour but I can't see him genuinely contending a full GT. IMHO Lopez is too inconsistent and currently Evenepoel is an unknown quantity over 3 weeks. The rest just don't have the killer instinct necessary, even if they do have the physical qualities. Kruiswijk's chance went head first over the bars into a snow bank in 2016.

The rider I want to see ride a GT entirely for himself, with a full team backing is George Bennett. So far all of his good GC showings in GTs have come at the expense of his leader crashing out/leaving the race 1-2 weeks in.
 
42x16ss

42x16ss

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That's because Roglic stormed onto the scene while Kruiswijk has been established for a while. Bennett had been slowly improving until his top 10 at the 2016 Vuelta (after Gesink left), then he flew up the GC at the 2017 TDF (after Gesink DNFd again and Roglic lost 30 minutes) before crashing out when in the top 10 and gaining big time on everyone.

He won't win a GT either, but I can see him doing some real damage trying. The dude is a beast.
 
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M

movingtarget

Aug 5, 2009
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I will say none of them in the short term........next two years. Pogacar is heading in the right direction and has youth on his side. Sivakov the same. So those two still have a lot of improvement in them you would think. SK probably missed his best chance. The others are podium material at best based on current and past form. Ala is yet to convince he can handle the three weeks and the high mountains with consistency. surprised that Evenepoel is even on the list. His future probably lies in other types of races. Buchmann reminds me more of an SK type of rider but not a GT winner at this point. Would I put money on Pinot to win a grand tour ? Probably not. Could he win one ? Possibly. I wait for the planets to align !
 
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SafeBet

SafeBet

Sep 2, 2011
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Voted for Pogacar, Sivakov, Evenepoel, Lopez and Kruijswijk.
As I di last year I'll give a few thoughts on riders with fewer votes, as I believe it's pretty obvious why someone would vote for Pogi, Sivakov and even Evenepoel.

Lopez: after last year I thought this was a case of when (not if) he would win a GT. But I gotta say the jury is still out on him. He's still as tactically naive as he was when he became a pro, hasn't improved much as a TTer and struggles to keep his cool under pressure. I voted for him nonetheless, because his track record in GTs is extremely impressive and he's still 25.

Kruijswijk: as consistent as he's ever been and finally got his podium. I still see him as a potential Giro winner, especially now that Jumbo can put together a reliable bunch of mountain domestiques. Hopefully he will target the corsa rosa next year.

Landa: an older version of Superman. Not sure the move to Bahrein will help him, but he should be able to choose which GT to target. I'm not 100% ready to write him off as a future GT winner, but not many chances left.

Pinot: last year I wrote "the most human GT rider atm. Reminds me of Cadel Evans at times (of course without the TT ability). Very inconsistent and prone to sickness, but he's been very close to a podium in the Giro twice. I didn't vote for him because I don't think it's likely, but he can win a Giro with a poor starting field". Haven't changed my mind, despite his tremendous effort in the Tour.

Uran: can't see it at this point of his career. He should target the Vuelta and try to join the 3 GT podium club.

Alaphilippe: I have seen stranger things in cycling, he's a true champion and a monster talent. I guess it really depends on the route: if ASO believe he's got the best shot at winning the Tour among French riders, then I could see them designing a tailor made route for him. Manageable multimountain stages with shallow gradients, tons of muritos and hills + a couple massive hilly TTs. Would he win it? I'm not sure, teams like Ineos and Jumbo would probably gang up on him and make him suffer, but it's not impossible.

Buchmann: a very solid rider, with a very steady development. Podium in a Vuelta maybe?
 
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F

F_Cance

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This is for the 2020 season? Then i only see Pogacar winning one. Sivakov needs at least another year. Evenepoel has yet to ride a solid result on a stage with long climbs. Winning one next year would be absolutely ridiculous. Bookman is a really good climber, but he does not have what it takes to win a GT. Alaphpitis best chance would be the Vuelta, but i don't see him riding it. MAL always has something against him. He is still young. I don't see him winning next year, but maybe later. All the others had enough chances and didn't win one yet, so why should they win a GT next year...
 
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