Future GT Winner (Edition 2020)

Who will win a Grand Tour?


  • Total voters
    111
  • Poll closed .
Welcome to the seventh edition of this yearly poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. Last year Tadej Pogačar won the poll by a landslide. That means the winner fulfilled the forum’s expectations for the fifth time in eight years, a remarkable average. Tao Geoghegan Hart wasn’t in the poll.

These are the winners of the previous editions:
  • 2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
  • 2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
  • 2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
  • 2015 Mikel Landa
  • 2016 Esteban Chaves
  • 2017 Mikel Landa
  • 2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
  • 2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
  • 2020 ???
So who will carry the forum’s expectations on his shoulders this time? You have more than one vote. Vote for anyone you expect to win a GT at some point in his career. If you have riders in mind who aren't in the poll you can mention them in the forum.
 
So before voting I checked the old topics to see who I voted for in previous years.


2016: Chaves, Lopez, Bardet, Kruijswijk, Dumoulin. (Didn't vote for A. Yates, Landa, Porte, Majka, Pinot). Worth mentioning that DNP-Old half-jokingly mentioned Carapaz (who at that time was a complete nobody) in a post.

2017: Lopez. (Didn't vote for Chaves, Zakarin, Landa, Porte, Uran, Bardet, Pinot, Kelderman, Poels). None of the riders listed ever won a GT.

2018: Bernal, Mas, Lopez, Roglic, Kruijswijk. (Didn't vote for Carapaz, Landa, Porte, Bardet, Pinot).

2019: Lopez, Sivakov, Kruijswijk, Evenepoel, Pogacar. (Didn't vote for Buchmann, Alaphilippe, Landa, Uran, Pinot).


So turns out I voted for Lopez AND Kruijswijk every single time they were available in the past 4 years. Well, I think the ship has sailed for both.
Even if Superman is still young enough to have a shot, he has too many limitations to ever win one.
Kruijswijk has been a favorite of mine for a long time, but the new generation is just too strong and the routes are less and less suited to his style of racing. I truly hope he manages to podium a Giro though.
Mas looks like a very steady, solid climber, but he's a level below the top GT riders atm. I'm not sure he can improve to the point of winning a GT.
Never voted for Landa and never will. Too inconsistent and he can't cope with pressure.
Kuss might have a shot in the Vuelta but will always be vulnerable in hilly stages, bad weather, TTs, etc. Too monodimensional to win a GT.
Kelderman is an interesting case. I think Bora is a nice environment for him but he needs everything to go 100% his way to win a GT. Odds are against him, not voting for him.

This leaves me with:
Carthy - has a few monster climbing performances under his belt. I don't really trust him as a bike rider, his positioning seems questionable. I'm voting for him because I think he has a shot in the Vuelta.
Hindley - can 100% win a GT with very few TT kms. I'm voting for him.
Almeida - was amazing in his first ever attempt at a GT. He's a solid TTer, can outsprint most of the other GT riders and has great recovery. He also put up a hell of a fight in probably the hardest climb around (Stelvio). Give him a favorable route and he can win a GT next year a la Roglic.
Evenepoel - kind of a safe bet, isn't he?


BTW I would also vote for Sivakov, Vlasov and Kamna if they were included in the poll. Martinez is another rider I wouldn't rule out.
 
I voted Mas, Almeida and Evenepoel.

Evenepoel, well, he's Evenepoel.

Almeida surprised me in the Giro even though I rate him highly. I just didn't really see him as a GT-rider, but I certainly think that he can win one now. Great sprint, ITT and recovery but might lack a bit in the high mountains still.

Mas' progress seems to have stalled a bit, but he's in with a good shot of winning a Vuelta, I think. I don't see him winning one of the other two. He's still only 25, and has three top 5's to his name which not many 25 year-olds can show. He has great recovery but lacks a bit in the mountains and ITT-department.

You don't find many more solid and consistent GT-riders than Landa, Kruijswijk and Lopez, but all of them seem to be a level below the very best and their ITT is too bad. I don't think any of them will win a GT, but Lopez could potentially sneak one. Last year I would have voted for him to win one.

Carthy, Hindley and Kuss are all still young and great climbers but for some reason I don't really see them as GT win-potential.
 
Surely Froome must have his 2012 win revoked.

The logic of the former polls says that the one we choose will win a GT next year. The logic also says that it can't be Evenepoel, because there's to many letters between E and R in the alphabet.

That leaves us with Landa, Lopez, Carthy, and Hindley. Landa and Lopez are proven non GT winners, so that rules them out.
Carthy is an EF rider, which makes Hindley the winner of a 2021 GT.
 
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realistically, they all have a chance to win a GT, but the only one I would feel confident of doing so in 2021 is Remco. All the others have weaknesses that have been exploited or revealed in the past, and so going forward I'd put them only in the "they've got a good chance" category. And I expect Roglic/Pogacar/Carapaz/Bernal and potentially Dumoulin/Thomas will take any GTs next year that Remco doesn't...

I wasn't convinced by what we saw this year by upstarts like Carthy and Hindley and Almeida, but perhaps being able to successfully lead a team in a GT, albeit in a very odd year, will give them an extra gear next year.

Biggest disappointment on that list is Lopez. I really, really thought he'd win at least a Vuelta or Giro by now. His TdF ITT convinced me that it would take a very special route for him to win a GT.

I'd have added Sivakov and Vlasov to that list, as well as Hirschi.
 
Gonna be a lot of egg on folks faces if Remco ends up doing a Valverde in the high mountains. It's a shame this year was written off for him as he could have given an indication on how he could do in the future regarding GT's. I'm gonna vote for none of the above, just my opinion.
 
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Voted for Evenepoel (Would bet big money on him winning one within 3 seasons), Carthy (like someone else said could see him nabbing a Vuelta) and Almeida who could win a TT heavy route if he can find a little bit more in the very biggest mountains.

Most interesting for me is to see who has not made it into the conversation yet. Riders such as Bardet, Pinot, Majka I feel have all rightly been exposed as not enough of an all rounder or simply not having a high enough top level. Personally I think it is time to consign Lopez, Landa and Kruijswijk to that list as well.

Barring a 2020 style shakeup I can only see Remco being a viable winner of a 2021 Grand Tour from those yet to win one.
 
2016: Chaves, Lopez, Bardet, Kruijswijk, Dumoulin. (Didn't vote for A. Yates, Landa, Porte, Majka, Pinot). Worth mentioning that DNP-Old half-jokingly mentioned Carapaz (who at that time was a complete nobody) in a post.

2017: Lopez. (Didn't vote for Chaves, Zakarin, Landa, Porte, Uran, Bardet, Pinot, Kelderman, Poels). None of the riders listed ever won a GT.

2018: Bernal, Mas, Lopez, Roglic, Kruijswijk. (Didn't vote for Carapaz, Landa, Porte, Bardet, Pinot).

2019: Lopez, Sivakov, Kruijswijk, Evenepoel, Pogacar. (Didn't vote for Buchmann, Alaphilippe, Landa, Uran, Pinot).
Voted for Eveneopoel and Almeida this year. I'm also on the verge on hitting the button for Hugh Carthy, but still undecided on him.

Can't really remember what I voted the last years, but I'm pretty sure it was at least Bernal in 18, Pogacar last year and probably MAL at least twice. Probably also Pinot at least once.

Pretty sure I've never voted for guys like Bardet, Landa, Porte, and Chaves which all have been nominated at least twice.
 
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I voted Evenepoel and I can see Carthy win one as well. He was not too far off from Roglic and Carapaz, and he does not have the disadvantage of some other names that he can't time trial.
Don't see any of the others win one, but that doesn't mean anything... I think Vlasov could have the potential. I can see van Aert or Hirschi win one one day. Almeida might improve further, but so far I don't see him winning a GT. I would not rule him out, however.
I think there are many names right now who can win the next GTs, with Pogacar, Roglic, Carapaz, Evenepoel, Vlasov, Hart... maybe Martinez, if he doesn't crash and has a team behind him. If for instance Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel ended up winning 70% of the next GTs, which I can well imagine, there are not that many spots left. And then some other unexpected names could have been sneaking up by 2022. Kämna has the potential as well.
 
under normal circumstances only Almeida and Evenpoel exhibit signs of future GT win, the best hope for the rest is pulling a Hesjedal

i have zero faith in Landa,Kruiswijk or Kelderman even if there was a Hesjedal to pull off and M.A.Lopez is getting dangerously close to that status as well

Sepp Kuss is out because he said he doesnt have the mental makeup to be a GT leader material
 
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Very interesting group of riders, most of them born in 1994 or later. The depth of the young field is impressive (esp. with Pogacar and Bernal included). My order (according to likehood of winning a GT)

Evenepoel

Hindley
Almeida
Carthy

I chose these riders assuming that they can still improve (given their age). This doesn't mean that other guys aren't able to win a GT (most of them can if a chance opens up like at last Giro) but I'm expecting an incredibly strong GT competition in years to come (lead by megatalents Pogacar & Evenepoel plus great riders like Roglic, Bernal and Carapaz).
 
under normal circumstances only Almeida and Evenpoel exhibit signs of future GT win, the best hope for the rest is pulling a Hesjedal

i have zero faith in Landa,Kruiswijk or Kelderman even if there was a Hesjedal to pull off and M.A.Lopez is getting dangerously close to that status as well

Sepp Kuss is out because he said he doesnt have the mental makeup to be a GT leader material
What was Hart’s win, if not a Hesjedal? Ryder didn’t even have a Rohan to do the heavy lifting for him, and Hindley 2020 isn’t exactly Purito 2012.

A lot will depend on who (of past winners) shows up for which GT next year. And how Ineos and Jumbo divide up their resources; they’ll be in the conversation for every GT they enter, but it looks like they won’t be in a position to provide enough support to win all 3, so someone will want to be there to pick up the pieces.
 
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Like every year it was hard to choose ten names for the poll. I kept Landa in because he was 4th in the Tour this year, although grandpa Porte finished even one place higher. For the tenth spot I was torn between Kruijswijk, Vlasov, Pinot and Gaudu. I picked K because he was third in the Tour last year and he might have finished high in the Giro without that positive corona test, but we'll never know. Pinot is still not impossible, but it's looking less and less likely. Vlasov might be more suited for the climbing classics and stage wins; we'll see how he develops next year.

I voted Evenepoel, Kuss and López. Evenepoel still has to live up to the hype, but his performance in Burgos was promising. Kuss looked impressive on the Angliru, so he might win a Giro or Vuelta if he gets a chance as Jumbo's leader. MAL is probably more a sympathy vote, but a Giro with big gaps in the Dolomites and only one ITT could still be in his favor. Maybe there won't be many new winners the next two years, because Pogacar, Roglic and Bernal might win several more.
 
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