Future GT Winner (Edition 2020)

Page 3 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will win a Grand Tour?


  • Total voters
    111
  • Poll closed .
Why unlikely? Or, at least, why more unlikely than anyone else? He was close this year.
There have always been riders who came close to winning a GT but ultimately never won one.

I'm not saying that Carthy is more unlikely than anyone else. :p Just more unlikely than a chosen few.

Carthy is 26 and has not finished in the top5 in any big race apart from that Vuelta and I never trust the Vuelta as the ultimate measure of rider's potential. That's the first clue he might not necessarily be a GT-win level good. He is also not a great all-rounder, his positioning in the peloton is questionable, he responds poorly to accelerations, doesn't do well on explosive climbs, needs a race of attrition to excel.
Does he look more impressive than the best we've seen of riders like Landa, Lopez, Purito, Pinot, Kruijswijk and a few others who have never won a GT? I wouldn't say so. Thus why would I think that Carthy is the one who's going to win?

Also being 193 cm tall doesn't give him any advantages. I don't think there has been a GT winner over 190cm in modern era and that's probably not a coincidence.
 
Reactions: Eeslliw
There have always been riders who came close to winning a GT but ultimately never won one.

I'm not saying that Carthy is more unlikely than anyone else. :p Just more unlikely than a chosen few.

Carthy is 26 and has not finished in the top5 in any big race apart from that Vuelta and I never trust the Vuelta as the ultimate measure of rider's potential. That's the first clue he might not necessarily be a GT-win level good. He is also not a great all-rounder, his positioning in the peloton is questionable, he responds poorly to accelerations, doesn't do well on explosive climbs, needs a race of attrition to excel.
Does he look more impressive than the best we've seen of riders like Landa, Lopez, Purito, Pinot, Kruijswijk and a few others who have never won a GT? I wouldn't say so. Thus why would I think that Carthy is the one who's going to win?

Also being 193 cm tall doesn't give him any advantages. I don't think there has been a GT winner over 190cm in modern era and that's probably not a coincidence.
Wiggins is listed as 189.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
An unlikely chain of events caused it: subpar form of Thomas and Froome made Carapaz skip the Giro, where new leader (Thomas) had a crash, which allowed Hart to lead the team. Such things rarely happen and in the Ineos hierarchy Dennis seems to be even lower than Hart (who will advance as a GT champion). Very small chance for Dennis to lead a GT at Ineos: he has to count on external factors (possibly multiple at once) to be a leader.
Hart is British, he's got first dibs unless Carapaz is on monster form.

Dennis doesn't want to be a GT contender, like De Ghendt he doesn't like being light enough for contending a full GTs worth of mountains. He's happy to wreak havoc when the chance arrives or try his own luck.
 
There have always been riders who came close to winning a GT but ultimately never won one.

I'm not saying that Carthy is more unlikely than anyone else. :p Just more unlikely than a chosen few.

Carthy is 26 and has not finished in the top5 in any big race apart from that Vuelta and I never trust the Vuelta as the ultimate measure of rider's potential. That's the first clue he might not necessarily be a GT-win level good. He is also not a great all-rounder, his positioning in the peloton is questionable, he responds poorly to accelerations, doesn't do well on explosive climbs, needs a race of attrition to excel.
Does he look more impressive than the best we've seen of riders like Landa, Lopez, Purito, Pinot, Kruijswijk and a few others who have never won a GT? I wouldn't say so. Thus why would I think that Carthy is the one who's going to win?
Among the riders listed here Kruijswijk is probably the best comparison for someone like Carthy. They can both time trial and are solid tempo climber. Positioning and bike handling look questionable for both so they can suffer in nervous and tricky stages, or on explosive finals. Carthy has more acceleration though.
It is true that riders like them will need everything to go 100% their way to win a GT but Kruijswijk was actually very close to win a Giro a few years ago so I won't completely rule out Carthy winning one. I voted for him after all.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
I agree with the Carthy doubters. He is really good, sure, he could win a gt one day, but I certainly don't expect it. His Vuelta was impressive, but certainly not more impressive than some gt performances by guys like Mas, MAL, Landa, Kruijswijk,... in the not so distant past. I don't expect any of those guys to ever win a gt, so I don't expect it from Carthy either.

I think it's also worth mentioning that Carthy has been on a world class level for long enough to convince me that if this performance was an outlier, it was an outlier to the top. Carthy isn't that young so I don't see him improving even further, while I'm not sure he'll be able to show this level conistently.
 
Reactions: Red Rick
I agree with the Carthy doubters. He is really good, sure, he could win a gt one day, but I certainly don't expect it. His Vuelta was impressive, but certainly not more impressive than some gt performances by guys like Mas, MAL, Landa, Kruijswijk,... in the not so distant past. I don't expect any of those guys to ever win a gt, so I don't expect it from Carthy either.

I think it's also worth mentioning that Carthy has been on a world class level for long enough to convince me that if this performance was an outlier, it was an outlier to the top. Carthy isn't that young so I don't see him improving even further, while I'm not sure he'll be able to show this level conistently.
This was Carthy's big leap and he still got handily beaten. Sure he's probably more suited to the Giro but the level in this Vuelta was the lowest of the 3 GTs, and it's not like he destroyed everyone on the Angliru or something.
 
All the candidates who already finished a GT have shown some kind of weakness, so let's vote for the candidate who never started a GT.
Normally, yes. But it's freakin' Remco Evenepoel.

None of those guys on the list showed what he did in the last 2 years in their early careers. He was on track to win 20 + races this year before covid and likely would have won or at least medaled in the Olympics/WC in ITT, plus maybe a classic/big one-day race or three, apart from the Giro.

Sure, we don't know how he'll handle 3 weeks, but he's met expectations (which were sky high) in every other discipline.
 
An unlikely chain of events caused it: subpar form of Thomas and Froome made Carapaz skip the Giro, where new leader (Thomas) had a crash, which allowed Hart to lead the team. Such things rarely happen and in the Ineos hierarchy Dennis seems to be even lower than Hart (who will advance as a GT champion). Very small chance for Dennis to lead a GT at Ineos: he has to count on external factors (possibly multiple at once) to be a leader.
There’s been multiple occasions over the past decade where Sky/Ineos’ team leader has crashed out of a GT, giving some very unexpected riders an opportunity to be a team leader. Tao was the first to actually follow through on it and really perform (though Landa did alright at the 2017 Giro) .

If you’re good riding for Ineos, you’ll get chances to win races.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Jan 8, 2020
85
86
280
An unlikely chain of events caused it: subpar form of Thomas and Froome made Carapaz skip the Giro, where new leader (Thomas) had a crash, which allowed Hart to lead the team. Such things rarely happen and in the Ineos hierarchy Dennis seems to be even lower than Hart (who will advance as a GT champion). Very small chance for Dennis to lead a GT at Ineos: he has to count on external factors (possibly multiple at once) to be a leader.
There's an additional factor - Tao missed making the Tour team to support Bernal. His season plans changed the same time as Thomas'/Carapaz's/Froome's.

Whole situation has got 2020 written all over it really!
 
My impression was that after the dropouts of Yates and Thomas the Giro had the weakest field of the three GTs. So I wouldn't rate Hart's win so very high. Also, he was really helped by Dennis. Carthy in the Vuelta had less support and did quite well. That he's already 26 does not really seem that important to me, some people need their time. But of course Roglic and Carapaz had not targeted the Vuelta in the beginning, so they probably weren't at their best.

Regarding Evenepoel and the three weeks: When has somebody fared against top riders in 1 week races like he did and not held it up over three weaks? Honest question, I can't remember. In Pologne he was clearly better than Majka, Kelderman, Yates, Hindley, Fuglsang. In Burgos clearly better than Carapaz, Yates, Landa. There's potential and there's domination. Whether he's able to dominate in a field with Pogacar in top form is another question, but if he's well recovered there's no doubt for me he can win a GT. Whether he will, well, you never know, like others he can crash, get sick, meet a still stronger opponent.
 
My impression was that after the dropouts of Yates and Thomas the Giro had the weakest field of the three GTs. So I wouldn't rate Hart's win so very high. Also, he was really helped by Dennis. Carthy in the Vuelta had less support and did quite well. That he's already 26 does not really seem that important to me, some people need their time. But of course Roglic and Carapaz had not targeted the Vuelta in the beginning, so they probably weren't at their best.

Regarding Evenepoel and the three weeks: When has somebody fared against top riders in 1 week races like he did and not held it up over three weaks? Honest question, I can't remember. In Pologne he was clearly better than Majka, Kelderman, Yates, Hindley, Fuglsang. In Burgos clearly better than Carapaz, Yates, Landa. There's potential and there's domination. Whether he's able to dominate in a field with Pogacar in top form is another question, but if he's well recovered there's no doubt for me he can win a GT. Whether he will, well, you never know, like others he can crash, get sick, meet a still stronger opponent.
All these guys you mentioned weren't exactly in great shape in the early races. Like, saying just because he beat Ganna in January in an ITT doesn't mean he'd beat him later in the season after Ganna makes a gigantic leap in performance.

Pogacar got Roglstomped around in the Dauphine. Then the Tour happened. Evenepoel could win his first GT next year, but I don't support the blind insistence he'd just casually dominate because he won some prep races
 
My impression was that after the dropouts of Yates and Thomas the Giro had the weakest field of the three GTs. So I wouldn't rate Hart's win so very high. Also, he was really helped by Dennis. Carthy in the Vuelta had less support and did quite well. That he's already 26 does not really seem that important to me, some people need their time. But of course Roglic and Carapaz had not targeted the Vuelta in the beginning, so they probably weren't at their best.

Regarding Evenepoel and the three weeks: When has somebody fared against top riders in 1 week races like he did and not held it up over three weaks? Honest question, I can't remember. In Pologne he was clearly better than Majka, Kelderman, Yates, Hindley, Fuglsang. In Burgos clearly better than Carapaz, Yates, Landa. There's potential and there's domination. Whether he's able to dominate in a field with Pogacar in top form is another question, but if he's well recovered there's no doubt for me he can win a GT. Whether he will, well, you never know, like others he can crash, get sick, meet a still stronger opponent.
Richie Porte and Jakob Husband say hello
 
Reactions: Red Rick
All these guys you mentioned weren't exactly in great shape in the early races. Like, saying just because he beat Ganna in January in an ITT doesn't mean he'd beat him later in the season after Ganna makes a gigantic leap in performance.

Pogacar got Roglstomped around in the Dauphine. Then the Tour happened. Evenepoel could win his first GT next year, but I don't support the blind insistence he'd just casually dominate because he won some prep races
Richie Porte and Jakob Husband say hello
Hm, well, that's why I did not include the early season races in Argentina and Portugal. But actually I probably should have. I mean, he did not just win one prep race, and not just races in early spring, in that case I would say you're right. But he just won every one-week-race he entered this year, in late winter as well as in August, against very decent competition, and not by a few seconds.
 
Nov 6, 2020
9
13
60
Hugh Carthy's performance at the vuelta is actually not that surprising looking at his giro last year, he was able to keep up with Landa, Carapaz and Nibali on the Mortirolo and had many other strong performances out of the GC group.
 
All these guys you mentioned weren't exactly in great shape in the early races. Like, saying just because he beat Ganna in January in an ITT doesn't mean he'd beat him later in the season after Ganna makes a gigantic leap in performance.

Pogacar got Roglstomped around in the Dauphine. Then the Tour happened. Evenepoel could win his first GT next year, but I don't support the blind insistence he'd just casually dominate because he won some prep races
Clearly Ganna has progressed hugely this season but I don’t think there is a time trial they have both competed in that Ganna has finished ahead of Evenepoel in their entire careers so I don’t think you can just presume that Remco can’t also step up his TT level in the same manner as Ganna.
 
Clearly Ganna has progressed hugely this season but I don’t think there is a time trial they have both competed in that Ganna has finished ahead of Evenepoel in their entire careers so I don’t think you can just presume that Remco can’t also step up his TT level in the same manner as Ganna.
The premise that Evenepol would beat the world record holder in an 8km flat ITT in Tirreno after making a huge leap in performance shattering the course record by like 20s is ridiculous.
 
Reactions: yaco
Jan 8, 2020
85
86
280
Regarding Evenepoel and the three weeks: When has somebody fared against top riders in 1 week races like he did and not held it up over three weaks? Honest question, I can't remember.
Hmmm, check out previous winners in Suisse, Dauphine, Catalunya, Tirreno etc. You'll find some guys that won a GT, and plenty that never did.

There's a reason "Can he do it for three weeks?" is such a common question -because it's not a given.
 
Regarding Evenepoel and the three weeks: When has somebody fared against top riders in 1 week races like he did and not held it up over three weaks? Honest question, I can't remember.
Simon Spilak is an interesting example. The guy was successful in 1 week races (2 TdS victories, 1 TdR victory + 3 RUs) while for most of his career he even didn't take part in GTs (he finished only 3 of them and his best place was #48), apparently he didn't like the heat during those. He must have loved Switzerland (most of his success achieved there) so I'm almost certain he would have won a GT had it been held there :p
 
Simon Spilak is an interesting example. The guy was successful in 1 week races (2 TdS victories, 1 TdR victory + 3 RUs) while for most of his career he even didn't take part in GTs (he finished only 3 of them and his best place was #48), apparently he didn't like the heat during those. He must have loved Switzerland (most of his success achieved there) so I'm almost certain he would have won a GT had it been held there :p
If he’d stuck around just one more season he could have dominated the Giro this year.
 
Simon Spilak is an interesting example. The guy was successful in 1 week races (2 TdS victories, 1 TdR victory + 3 RUs) while for most of his career he even didn't take part in GTs (he finished only 3 of them and his best place was #48), apparently he didn't like the heat during those. He must have loved Switzerland (most of his success achieved there) so I'm almost certain he would have won a GT had it been held there :p
Špilak is the only rider I can think of, in the 25 years of me following cycling, who was a top tier one week GC rider and did absolutely nothing in GTs. Some mention Porte, Fuglsang and Costa as comparisons, but they don't come even close. They all have multiple top10 GC placings, top5 stage results and even stage wins between them. While Špilak most memorable GT performance was when he was caught last of the breakaway riders in the famous 2009 Verbier stage in TdF. In his prime years he did ride a GT only once, the 2014 TdF. He was in the break one time, in the stage where Tony Martin won with an epic solo attack, and came home last from the breakaway group in 21st place. Of course he didn't see Paris that year.

The curious case of Simon Špilak. An enigma for some, an even bigger enigma for the others.
 
Špilak is the only rider I can think of, in the 25 years of me following cycling, who was a top tier one week GC rider and did absolutely nothing in GTs. Some mention Porte, Fuglsang and Costa as comparisons, but they don't come even close. They all have multiple top10 GC placings, top5 stage results and even stage wins between them. While Špilak most memorable GT performance was when he was caught last of the breakaway riders in the famous 2009 Verbier stage in TdF. In his prime years he did ride a GT only once, the 2014 TdF. He was in the break one time, in the stage where Tony Martin won with an epic solo attack, and came home last from the breakaway group in 21st place. Of course he didn't see Paris that year.

The curious case of Simon Špilak. An enigma for some, an even bigger enigma for the others.
Diego Ulissi is another. Competitive in just about any 1 week race around the calendar, but not a Top 20 finish in a GC to be found. Not quite as successful as Spilak, but all types of GC wins in week long races over his career.

There are tons of other riders who have been dominant in week long races who never won a GT, even if competitive. You’re right that Spilak is an extreme case though.

Remco looks great at the moment, but we haven’t seen him go over 2000+ over multiple climbs in a stage. Take Valverde, for example. He’s a GT winner, but never won the Tour. His biggest handicap over the years in the TDF and Giro is that he seems to have an internal altitude meter. He doesn’t ride as well above 2000 meters, which is why he is more suited for the Vuelta, where the most difficult climbs are steeper but at lower altitudes. Remco has never been tested on those stages with multiple big mountain passes.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY