Future GT Winner (Edition 2020)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?


  • Total voters
    111
  • Poll closed .
Voted Evenepoel and Almeida.

Evenepoel...well of course I picked him. Don't think anyone is crazy enough to bet against him. Of course anything can happen but this sort of talent is simply unheard of in modern cycling.

Almeida isn't as obvious. After all in the only gt he has ever ridden he got beaten by 3 riders, of which two are on this list and two were so young he even only got third in the young riders classification. But then again, he is just 22, I feel like in any other season I wouldn't stop about how Almeida looks like a generational talent, but apparently getting fourth in the giro aged 22 just isn't that special anymore in 2020. At the end the crucial reason why I voted for him is because he is a really good TT'er and while most gc riders are pure climbers, the most successful ones are usually the ones who are also great TT'ers.

That's also the reason why most of the guys on that list will probably never make it to the top step. It's why I thought Pogacar was overhyped before his Tour win (and actually I wasn't wrong because a pure climber ended up winning the Tour, but because it turned out the guy I labeled a pure climber is actually a superb TT'er) and it's why I fear guys like Hindley, Carthy or Kuss, as talented as they have looked, will have the same fate as Lopez, Landa and Kruijswijk (and Mas to a lesser extent) who have been on this list for years but could never take it a step further.
I mean it's kinda funny how we all thought Landa was the best climber in the world in 2015, were proven wrong in 2016 before believing it yet again in 2017. Winning gt's as a pure climber is hard.

It's also why I think there are some other guys worth mentioning. I've talked about how highly I rate Kämna for some time now and while I don't know if he is more likely to win a gt than any of the guys on this list, I at least want to mention him.
Then there are guys like Dennis or even Ganna and WVA. After a few performances they have showed this year I wouldn't at all be shocked if they can transition into a gc rider IF that is actually what they want. Dennis in particular basically won Ineos the giro by being the third best climber of the last week.
 
I voted Evenpoel and Mas.

Evenpoel is the obvious one.

I also voted for Mas. He's becoming more consistent in stage racing. This year he switched teams and the entire team was having issues, and yet he still managed to get to top 5's. I think he does have the talent to win a Grand Tour. Of course he could just end up with a bunch of podiums as well, which I do think he's very capable of. Although I suspect the Giro and Vuelta fit his talents better than the Tour. Although he did get a Tour top 5 with a very strong GC field this year.
 
Voted Evenepoel and Almeida.

Evenepoel...well of course I picked him. Don't think anyone is crazy enough to bet against him. Of course anything can happen but this sort of talent is simply unheard of in modern cycling.

Almeida isn't as obvious. After all in the only gt he has ever ridden he got beaten by 3 riders, of which two are on this list and two were so young he even only got third in the young riders classification. But then again, he is just 22, I feel like in any other season I wouldn't stop about how Almeida looks like a generational talent, but apparently getting fourth in the giro aged 22 just isn't that special anymore in 2020. At the end the crucial reason why I voted for him is because he is a really good TT'er and while most gc riders are pure climbers, the most successful ones are usually the ones who are also great TT'ers.

That's also the reason why most of the guys on that list will probably never make it to the top step. It's why I thought Pogacar was overhyped before his Tour win (and actually I wasn't wrong because a pure climber ended up winning the Tour, but because it turned out the guy I labeled a pure climber is actually a superb TT'er) and it's why I fear guys like Hindley, Carthy or Kuss, as talented as they have looked, will have the same fate as Lopez, Landa and Kruijswijk (and Mas to a lesser extent) who have been on this list for years but could never take it a step further.
I mean it's kinda funny how we all thought Landa was the best climber in the world in 2015, were proven wrong in 2016 before believing it yet again in 2017. Winning gt's as a pure climber is hard.

It's also why I think there are some other guys worth mentioning. I've talked about how highly I rate Kämna for some time now and while I don't know if he is more likely to win a gt than any of the guys on this list, I at least want to mention him.
Then there are guys like Dennis or even Ganna and WVA. After a few performances they have showed this year I wouldn't at all be shocked if they can transition into a gc rider IF that is actually what they want. Dennis in particular basically won Ineos the giro by being the third best climber of the last week.
I would say Dennis was the best climber of the third week. Only Quintana in the spring could rival that climbing performance.
 
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Nov 2, 2020
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I voted for Evenepoel, Lopez, Almeida, Hindley, Carthy.

I will start with the obvious choice, Evenepoel. As I said in his thread we don' t know yet his recovery, but on paper he appears to be one of the best and complete riders of the new gen, and even though I think that he will be a more one day racer than a GT contender I have to choose him because of his great talent.

I voted also for Miguel Angel Lopez because I think he is an amazing climber even If inconsistent (he hasn't an exeptional recovery, with his performances going up and down day by day). This year Lopez has shown very good things in the Tour, especially in the Col de la Loze stage, but he needs to massively improve in the TTs to be competitive in a GT because what happened at La Planche was disappointing at best.

Almeida has done a wonderful Giro, appears to be a more punchier rider than the two mentioned before, is very good in individual time trials, and climbed at a very good level in the mountains, with the exception of the Stelvio. His climbing times were great and he impressed in the second ascent to Sestriere. My only doubt is that he needs to be proven against a TDF level field. At the moment I can see him winning a Giro, and also a Vuelta (because of the punchier climbs and uphill sprints), we'll see.

Hindley was a nice surprise in this Giro, he has great climbing capabilities and also has a very nice looking climbing style but like Lopez he needs to improve his TT, but with a GT course with few ITT kms he can be one of the favourites.

I' m ending the list with Carthy because he has shown an impressive level through the whole Vuelta, a level of climbing that I personally did not expect and good time trialing. He attacked when he could and he has always shown that he wasn't fighting for a second place, but for the maillot Rojo, even in the Covatilla he attacked again and again, and I loved to see that (even though is riding style on the bike is horredous :tearsofjoy:).
 
Filippo Ganna.
This is interesting. Big TT engine who still has time to improve his climbing - he'll have to lose at least a few kilos and I don't think he's willing to do it (at least that's what he mentioned in one interview). His frame may be too big for GTs anyway but maybe he will become a cobbles monster (like Cancellara).

Rohan Dennis is another interesting example: 10 kilos lighter than Ganna and more suited to the mountains. With his Giro form he could be a GT pretender but at Ineos he'll never get a chance to be a leader.
 
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That's also the reason why most of the guys on that list will probably never make it to the top step. It's why I thought Pogacar was overhyped before his Tour win (and actually I wasn't wrong because a pure climber ended up winning the Tour, but because it turned out the guy I labeled a pure climber is actually a superb TT'er) and it's why I fear guys like Hindley, Carthy or Kuss, as talented as they have looked, will have the same fate as Lopez, Landa and Kruijswijk (and Mas to a lesser extent) who have been on this list for years but could never take it a step further.
I really hope some of these guys are able to step up to be a superior climber on a level above the other GC-guys, and therefore can challenge the GC contenders that also can time trial very well. The only one that fits this description the latest decade is proably Quintana in his best seasons. Aru was also on his way to something really grand before his troubles started. Guys like Chaves, Landa, MAL, Yates and others never reached this level. I hope that some will in the coming years. Bernal is the most likely option, but Carthy, Hindley, and perhaps Kuss are other candidates.

It would be fun to see several of these guys in the Giro next year, for example Carthy, Hindley, MAL and Mas in addition to Carapaz and Hart matched against a guy like Evenopoel. Given a decent amount of TT, they probably would have to beat him with several minutes in the mountains and therefore attack him like madmen.
 
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i think at least some of these guys will be foolish enough to try tour de france instead of focusing on giro/vuelta, especially if they are only GT performer in their team - mainly Hindley, M.A.Lopez and of course Landa, i wouldnt be surprised to see EF making Carthy do TdF with Uran/Carthy combo in mind because Uran is a notorious follower and Carthy could make his ride easier

they will all fail miserably tho, unfortunately same thing will happen to Mas, because Movistar doesnt have another GC guy, so that will pretty much leave us with two Quickstep guys, who dont have the pressure of TdF because of Alaphillipe and Bennett - Giro with Evenepoel,Almeida (plus Cataneo and Bagioli maybe) could be hell of a team as long as they leave Masnada at home :D

i also fully expect that somebody totally out of picture (like Ciccone) will have a great GT next year just because reasons
 
No recounts will be necessary. With 84.6% of the voters picking him Remco Evenepoel is the clear winner of this poll. The 20-year old had a dreadful crash in Lombardia this year, but cycling fans are confident that he will come back and win a Grand Tour. The future will tell if this bright young talent from Aalst can live up to the hype.


  1. Evenepoel 66
  2. Almeida 33
  3. Hindley 15
  4. Carthy 14
  5. Mas 13
  6. López 9
  7. Kuss 2
  8. Landa 1
  9. Kruijswijk 0
  10. Kelderman 0
Thanks to all the voters who participated and commented!
 
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Every year I look at the names in these polls and think "Well, none of these guys are particularly likely to win a GT, are they". And then some of them do go on to win a GT, but I still get the same feeling.

I voted for Evenepoel because of course I did, but it must be noted that we have literally no idea of how he performs over three weeks or on the high mountains. We assume him to do well because he does everything well, but who knows. Then again, his ability on the high mountains is completely irrelevant here because he could still win the Vuelta.

I didn't want that to be my only vote, so I also voted for Mas. He's boring, and he's stagnated. Even worse, he's bald. But I could see him maybe winning a Vuelta if the field is a bit weak. Especially if this was the 2000s.

"But Hroða, the poll is already over". Well how do you explain the fact that my vote was counted then, huh?
 
Reminder of the most recent first time Grand Tour winners:

2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso
 
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Carthy, Hindley and Ganna are the biggest prospects for me. I enjoyed Almeida but he reminds me of JA during the Tour. Remco is yet to proof his strength.
 
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Carthy, Hindley and Ganna are the biggest prospects for me. I enjoyed Almeida but he reminds me of JA during the Tour. Remco is yet to proof his strength.
Ganna would have to be the second Indurain but even bigger. His engine is huge (I've heard that he can sustain about 500 watts) so we will see how he develops. I think for GTs he would have to drop a few kilos anyway (and get closer to 75-78 kg range, he's about 82 kg now). I see him more like a Cancellara type of a rider: monster in TTs and on the cobbles.
 
This is interesting. Big TT engine who still has time to improve his climbing - he'll have to lose at least a few kilos and I don't think he's willing to do it (at least that's what he mentioned in one interview). His frame may be too big for GTs anyway but maybe he will become a cobbles monster (like Cancellara).

Rohan Dennis is another interesting example: 10 kilos lighter than Ganna and more suited to the mountains. With his Giro form he could be a GT pretender but at Ineos he'll never get a chance to be a leader.
Not Carapaz, Bernal, Thomas, Froome or Sivakov but Hart of all people just won a GT for INEOS. There will be opportunities for him if he's up for it.
 
Not Carapaz, Bernal, Thomas, Froome or Sivakov but Hart of all people just won a GT for INEOS. There will be opportunities for him if he's up for it.
An unlikely chain of events caused it: subpar form of Thomas and Froome made Carapaz skip the Giro, where new leader (Thomas) had a crash, which allowed Hart to lead the team. Such things rarely happen and in the Ineos hierarchy Dennis seems to be even lower than Hart (who will advance as a GT champion). Very small chance for Dennis to lead a GT at Ineos: he has to count on external factors (possibly multiple at once) to be a leader.
 
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I voted for Carthy, Hindley, Almeida, and Evenepoel. By voting for them, I am indicating that I think each of them has a reasonable (>25%) chance of winning a GT at some point in their careers. Evenepoel is the only one I would give a greater than 50% chance of doing it.

On a separate note, I think Landa should become the "Vino" option for these polls in the future, i.e. there should always be a "Landa/Other" option, even after he retires.
 
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Evenepoel will probably win next year's Giro before tackling the Olympic ITT, continuing this poll's tradition.

And I can see Almeida winning next year's Vuelta, since Evenepoel will go to the Giro and Alaphilippe will go to the Tour, leaving Almeida to target the Vuelta as his primary objective next season. His talents are very well suited to the Vuelta with its steep short climbs, and his ITT will give him the edge on riders like Mas, Carapaz, Landa, Lopez, Kruijswijk and Carthy. He's still young, so there's a good chance his climbing skills will have improved after his first WT season with a great first GT outing. Of course we'll have to see whether Roglic will defend his Vuelta title after next year's Tour, but if he targets the Olympics, maybe Jumbo will send Kruijswijk to the Vuelta as sole leader as was the plan this year. But all in all, I think a Almeida bet now on a Vuelta 2021 win could pay off.

As for other riders who could maybe win a GT, I wanted to mention a name that I think no one mentioned here. A young GC rider who can TT and is given time to grow in a free role within a good team: Brandon McNulty. It probably won't happen within a few years, but a few good GC results and a good ITT make me believe we could see him up there one day. I at least expect him to show up in this poll in the next few years after having ridden a high top 10 in a GT (probably the Giro).

Of course Dennis, Gonna and Van Aert can TT, but I doubt that they have any plans on becoming real GC riders. If one of them does, it will probably be Ganna, since Dennis is already 30 and Van Aert will always (also) be a classics rider in my opinion). It's hard to predict whether that will be a Thomas/Dumoulin/Roglic or a Jungels/Dennis scenario.
 
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