Future GT Winner (Edition 2021)

[Pantani_lives]

Welcome to the tenth edition of this yearly poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. Last year Remco Evenepoel won the poll convincingly. However there was no new GT winner in 2021. This year it was extra difficult to limit the options to ten, with all those young talents coming up. That's why I decided to drop the somewhat older riders, like Caruso, Landa and Adam Yates. If you have riders in mind that aren't listed, you can mention them in the thread.

So which of these young talents are most likely to win a GT at some point in their career? You have multiple votes.

Past winners of this poll:

• 2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
• 2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
• 2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
• 2015 Mikel Landa
• 2016 Esteban Chaves
• 2017 Mikel Landa
• 2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
• 2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
• 2020 Remco Evenepoel
• 2021 ???

 

[Escarabajo]

I am so tempted to pick Lopez here!! LOL.
Very tough decision. Dani Martinez has serious issues with descending. So is Remco. I have not seen enough from Jonas Vingegaard to jump on conclusions.

 

[Pinot's goat]

1. Almeida (Not TdF due to Tadej)
2. Vingegaard (TdF performance was incredible but needs to back it up, Hindley, Tao etc)
3. Mas (Vuelta only)

 

[Krzysztof_O]

1. Vingegaard
2. Evenepoel
3. Almeida

 

[dampframme]

I think Almeida can at least win one Giro

 

[topcat]

1. MAL
2. Superman
3. Lopez

 

[Red Rick]

Going by past poll results, either they win immediately the next season or not at all.

I think Evenepoel, Almeida and Vingegaard are the easy pick here

Almeida vs Vingegaard could be a fun question?

 

[Pinot's goat]

I am guessing you omitted Pinot and Landa from this since they would get 100% votes.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Going by past poll results, either they win immediately the next season or not at all.

I think Evenepoel, Almeida and Vingegaard are the easy pick here

Almeida vs Vingegaard could be a fun question?

Remco should focus on Belgian races then.

 

[Escarabajo]

Going by past poll results, either they win immediately the next season or not at all.

I think Evenepoel, Almeida and Vingegaard are the easy pick here

Almeida vs Vingegaard could be a fun question?

The question is who is going to the Giro next year? otherwise they have no chance.

 

[OlavEH]

Of the riders in the poll, I can't really imagine Vlasov, O'Connor, Martinez, Mäder og Haig winning any GTs. Probably not MAL either. He seems to inconsistent and weak in time trials. A couple of years ago I thought he could compensate by dominating in the mountains in at least the Vuelta, but he does to only once or twice each Grand Tour.

That leaves the following:
Mas - consistent, but not really a winning type. Maybe he could win a GT in a optimal tour for him, but if competing against guys like Roglic, Pogacar, Bernal, Carapaz and proably also Evenepoel, I think Mas would come up short.

Vingegaard - great performance in this year's Tour, but I want to see more from him before I decide. I don't think the level of the contenders behind Pogacar was top notch this year, so it's difficult to say exactly how good this was. If he does something similar next year, he would have convinced me.

Almeida - managed to follow up on last year's Giro unlike Tao and Hindley. Also showed real character when climbing in the GC after a real poor start. Fairly good in time trials and also seems tactical enough to ride his own pace in the mountains if necessary. I think Almeida could win a GT in the next couple of years.

Evenepoel - pretty sure this guy will win more than one GT during his career.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Evenepoel is still the most likely out of these, regardless of one Giro he was ill-prepared for. He already has the skillset required to win a Vuelta. For the Giro, he needs to answer his biggest question mark (multi-mountain stages), for the Tour, he needs to improve/get lucky with his biggest weakness (bike handling).

Vingegaard should also be able to win one, but his odds lengthen if he becomes the kind of rider who targets the Tour every year, because winning the Tour is very, very hard if you aren't between eras, and he's older than Pogacar (and Evenepoel)... Still voted for him too, though, and those are my only two votes.

Almeida, at his current level, would need a weaker field to take one, as his pure climbing ability isn't good enough. Difficult see him winning a Tour even if he can take one more big step too. I can see the case to be made, but I think his odds are below 50% for now.

Everyone else needs the GT of a lifetime and/or a weak field. Mas is probably the best-equipped to take advantage of the latter, but is still quite unlikely to win one. Among those older than the youngest on the list, Van Aert is more likely than all seven, IMO.

Of course, everything changes if the riders who we expect to dominate the decade (in this case, predominantly Pogacar) have a shorter-than-anticipated peak. Froome, Contador, Nibali and Quintana won 14 out of 17 GTs from the 2012 Vuelta up to the 2018 Giro between them, with the next-best GC riders of the time (Aru and Dumoulin) winning one apiece and Horner somewhat fluking the final one. The 6 GTs after it all had first-time winners - one half the leading lights of the subsequent era who have gone on to win at least one more, the other half one-time-only winners of whom only Carapaz is likely to take another. Now, Roglic, Pogacar and Bernal have 7 out of 8 with Hart fluking the other, so the field has become more select again now we're no longer between eras, and then younger riders who haven't done a GT yet or are still unknown will also keep popping up.

TL;DR: the riders on this list now are unlikely to run into an interlude between generations of dominant riders the way those on this list 4 or so years ago did, hence the level required to win a GT should be higher and I didn't vote for more than two.

 

[Bolder]

Vingegaard, Almeida and Martinez. The first two have the skill set and the team strength (assuming Almeida is going to UAE?) Martinez is a bit of a wild card but I think he has upside, and definitely the team to help him. A year ago I would have said Sivakov would be Ineos's next GT winner but he seems to have plateaued at very good domestique.

I'm now not convinced that Remco can win a GT. But I need to see how he does in a non injury year. His bike handling is more worrisome than I thought, tbh. But I don't have enough data points to make an educated assessment based on his performance since his big crash.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Voted Evenepoel. I would be surprised if any of the others win one although someone could win a fluke Giro or Vuelta.

 

[Rackham]

Evenepoel is still the most likely out of these, regardless of one Giro he was ill-prepared for. He already has the skillset required to win a Vuelta. For the Giro, he needs to answer his biggest question mark (multi-mountain stages), for the Tour, he needs to improve/get lucky with his biggest weakness (bike handling).

This doesn't make much sense.

The Vuelta has both multi-mountain stages in abundance & also requires some bike handling (descents are no less dangerous & tricky than other countries, as always). The only reason I assume Evenepoel is mentioned again & again in these polls is due to his age (because he'll obviously get stronger & better), but as of right now he absolutely does not have the "skillset" to win the Vuelta. If he was going for GC he would have been mauled (along with his team) in the 2021 edition we just had, for sure.

Of the riders in the poll, I can't really imagine Vlasov, O'Connor, Martinez, Mäder og Haig winning any GTs. Probably not MAL either. He seems to inconsistent and weak in time trials. A couple of years ago I thought he could compensate by dominating in the mountains in at least the Vuelta, but he does to only once or twice each Grand Tour.

MAL's problem is his mentality.

And not just in a broader sense, but in terms of tactics. I mean it's pretty evident for rival teams now: MAL has a short temper & he'll likely blow a fuse if you make the race a little bit crazy & bad things happen to him. I have no idea what happened on Saturday but from the outside it now looks easier for rivals to get under his skin. So beyond any immediate repercussion (punishment, contract termination etc.), I'd say that's the main 'sting in the tail' as a result of his actions at the end of the Vuelta (& be most detrimental to him going forwards).

And my pick for future GT winner? Jonas Vingegaard.

He can TT, he can climb & he's in the right team. The Tour wasn't a fluke, he's shown glimpses of his talent (including in Itzulia) but that was the first time everything came together for him.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I voted Vingegaard and Mas. Vingegaard looked very convincing and complete in the Tour. He'll probably be the next leader at Jumbo, and he belongs to the best five already. Mas can win a Vuelta without Slovenians.

Evenepoel isn't the best bike handler, because he started cycling at a later age. However Basso and Wiggins weren't the best bike handlers either, and it didn't stop them. Remco has the athleticism and a good attitude, but he still has everything to prove in the high mountains. He can win Paris-Nice, Suisse and LBL, but he's still far away from winning a GT. The Vuelta would suit him best.

López is one of the best climbers, but he loses more in ITTs and transitional stages than he makes up in the mountains. Almeida hasn't really convinced me in the high mountains. Daniel Martínez finished fifth in the Giro while working for Bernal, but the question is if he'll ever be the designated leader at Ineos.

Outside of these ten Van Aert and Kuss are interesting names, but they'll probably never lead Jumbo in a GT. The Padun hype is already slackening. Caruso might win the Giro next year if the big names focus on the Tour, but there will probably be at least one stronger guy again.

 

[Red Rick]

Not sure how Evenepoel already has the tools to win the Vuelta?

 

[gunara]

The only way I can pick my vote is by imagining they all race the next GT with none of the titanic Slovenians racing. And I vote Vingegard, last time I saw him I believed he's neither a worse climber or a worse TTer than any of the other names on the list.
If he chose to be with Roglic at the Tour next year, then he will have to wait longer and someone else might win his first earlier.

Curious to know who was the craziest/funniest/saddest option that ever listed in previous polls. Was there ever anyone who ended up not being a real elite stage racer included?

 

[Red Rick]

The only way I can pick my vote is by imagining they all race the next GT with none of the titanic Slovenians racing. And I vote Vingegard, last time I saw him I believed he's neither a worse climber or a worse TTer than any of the other names on the list.
If he chose to be with Roglic at the Tour next year, then he will have to wait longer and someone else might win his first earlier.

Curious to know who was the craziest/funniest/saddest option that ever listed in previous polls. Was there ever anyone who ended up not being a real elite stage racer included?

For me Vingegaard basically needs to confirm his level next year, more so than say Almeida.

Also Jumbo will probably just throw everything at the Tour for the forseeable future, which is kinda sad. Maybe Dumoulin falls in love with the Giro again

 

[wheresmybrakes]

It's really hard to say for me. If all the GT's have the top guns taking part then I can't see any of these people winning a GT. If they happen to fall on a scenario like Tao GH did in the Giro then the only person I would go with is Vingegard. Why Remco is in the poll I have no idea (to keep his die hards happy?) If the poll was "Who has the potential to win a GT?" then yes, quite a few of them.

 

[gunara]

For me Vingegaard basically needs to confirm his level next year, more so than say Almeida.

Also Jumbo will probably just throw everything at the Tour for the forseeable future, which is kinda sad. Maybe Dumoulin falls in love with the Giro again

Agree with both points, I chose only from the top sample for each option, and for Vingegaard there's not enough to chose from.
I still wish they'll send him to the Giro, but yeah, I'm sure Jumbo will not risk sending anything other than their version of death squad to fight Pogi at the Tour.

 

[YavorD]

Curious to know who was the craziest/funniest/saddest option that ever listed in previous polls. Was there ever anyone who ended up not being a real elite stage racer included?

I checked most of the editions and the most bizarre name I saw was Andrey Amador... No one else was completely "out of place" in those polls.
For a fact I find it strange how Alaphilippe and Buchmann we so popular back in 2019.

Regarding this years poll, I voted for Almeida. He seemed to improve, at least in the 3rd week in a GT and if he still has further development in himself, he should be able to win a GT.
Remco is yet to convince me that he has what's needed to win a GT except (except for a strong TT obviously).
Vingegaard is an interesting option, but given his team makes hard. Also, as people stated Tour field was questionable (at the end, of course). After all, O'COnnor was 4th, Kelderman was 5th, Lutsenko 7th. If he confirms that next year even in early season races, I'd be more inclined to believe him.

Of the others, I'd like to see MAL winning a GT, but it will most probably never happen
Mas has the biggest chance, but he will need luck and the right field.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

No wonder Vingegaard is leading the poll. He's the only guy who dropped the baby-faced monster on a climb this year, which is way bigger that a GT victory!

 

[BlueRoads]

I wouldn't write off Vlasov so fast. He does have a very decent time trial, he can climb, he doesn't especially suffer on long flats. So the basics are there. He's 25 and has a few years left... For me it's more likely someone like him ups his game in the next years than someone who has a notorious weakness like time trialing improving that significantly. We always talk about how the route needs to be perfect, other competitors not there for somebody to win, and of course it can happen, but I think maybe one is prone to focus too much on the guys who excel in climbing on a certain day when talking about future GT winners.

 

[southwards]

I don't know if Remco was that much out of form at the Giro. His TT was fine, but he really seems to excell in short hilly races. It's strange, he is very light, should be good at the mountains, but I still need to see if he can do these kind of races. Winning San Juan, Algarve or Burgos is not a key to GT greatness. Maybe he is simply cut for different kind of races other than GT's, and that's the beauty of cycling, I don't think Paolo Bettini or Fabian Cancellara are inferior riders to Cadel Evans or Andy Schleck.

I voted Mas, I fancy him winning a Vuelta if Roglic stays out. Being Spaniard he has better incentives to peak for his home GT than most of other riders. Any other GTI think is highly unlikely.

I voted Almeida, he was the finest rider at this year's Giro third week and really blossomed when Remco went out, he dropped (a fading, yes) Bernal twice in the final stages and has a very fine TT (not as good as Roglic's or Pogacar's though), even if he ended behind Vlasov and Martinez, he impressed me more than both.

Mäder may impress us in the future. Lopez is a one-trick pony and has loads of other issues. Haig and O'Connor I think reached their limit.