Future GT Winner (Edition 2021)

[southwards]

For a fact I find it strange how Alaphilippe and Buchmann we so popular back in 2019.

The effects of a very weak TDF field. Funny to note that in 2019 the TDF had the weakest field of all three GT.'s. So much so that nowadays Roglic's domestique was podium.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I can see "the Vlasov option" moving into forum folklore shortly.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't know if Remco was that much out of form at the Giro. His TT was fine, but he really seems to excell in short hilly races. It's strange, he is very light, should be good at the mountains, but I still need to see if he can do these kind of races.

Thay said that Remco's numbers were pretty good. His anaerobic threshold was fine in the first part of the Giro.
The problem lied somewhere else: the lack of long base training caused him to gradually fold as the race went on. He wasn't ready for such long efforts (maybe not enough sustainable aerobic power).

 

[BlueRoads]

I don't know if Remco was that much out of form at the Giro. His TT was fine, but he really seems to excell in short hilly races. It's strange, he is very light, should be good at the mountains, but I still need to see if he can do these kind of races. Winning San Juan, Algarve or Burgos is not a key to GT greatness. Maybe he is simply cut for different kind of races other than GT's, and that's the beauty of cycling, I don't think Paolo Bettini or Fabian Cancellara are inferior riders to Cadel Evans or Andy Schleck.

I voted Mas, I fancy him winning a Vuelta if Roglic stays out. Being Spaniard he has better incentives to peak for his home GT than most of other riders. Any other GTI think is highly unlikely.

I voted Almeida, he was the finest rider at this year's Giro third week and really blossomed when Remco went out, he dropped (a fading, yes) Bernal twice in the final stages and has a very fine TT (not as good as Roglic's or Pogacar's though), even if he ended behind Vlasov and Martinez, he impressed me more than both.

Mäder may impress us in the future. Lopez is a one-trick pony and has loads of other issues. Haig and O'Connor I think reached their limit.

I agree with most of your post. But about Evenepoel: It would be different if everybody was just saying in hindsight that he must have been in bad shape, but actually "everyone" before the Giro was like "how can he go there and for GC with such a preparation!" because it was really short and completely lacked the winter base that everyone else had.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I think that Mas is the most likely to win A gt, but that another rider on the list will win more than him. Who that is, is tough to guess. I hope Remco, simply because I think there's a massive what if about his bad crash last year if he doesn't eventually win a gt.

As for the Australians, I'd rate Hindley as a better chance than Haig, and maybe even O'Connor. People have short memories. Last year's Giro wasn't very popular, but surely Jai's ceiling is higher than Jack's.

 

[hayneplane]

Not sure how Evenepoel already has the tools to win the Vuelta?

Agreed. I could easily have envisaged him roglstomping the final weekend stages but Gamoniteiro and Lagos de Covadonga would be question marks for now and he would likely bleed time on some of the punchy ramp finishes.

 

[42x16ss]

Vingegaard is the only one listed who has me even partially convinced. Lopez could possibly win a Giro or Vuelta if he gets his head right and the stars align.

The podium is probably the peak for the rest.

 

[42x16ss]

The effects of a very weak TDF field. Funny to note that in 2019 the TDF had the weakest field of all three GT.'s. So much so that nowadays Roglic's domestique was podium.

That same domestique was easily beating Nibali by minutes with a mountain stage to go until he hit that snow bank in the 2016 Giro.

He was also 5th behind Thomas, Dumoulin, Froome and Roglic at the 2018 TDF, riding for Roglic.

It wasn't quite as weak as some like to believe.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Why isn't Fausto Masnada an option? More likely than most of those riders.

Remco has more chance to win a flanders than a grand tour.

 

[BlueRoads]

Why isn't Fausto Masnada an option? More likely than most of those riders.

Remco has more chance to win a flanders than a grand tour.

These polls! People only ever put riders in there they like! I'm also really angry Hodeg wasn't considered. He's still young and can improve.

 

[Red Rick]

Thay said that Remco's numbers were pretty good. His anaerobic threshold was fine in the first part of the Giro.
The problem lied somewhere else: the lack of long base training caused him to gradually fold as the race went on. He wasn't ready for such long efforts (maybe not enough sustainable aerobic power).

He's also just worse as climbs get steeper. In fact in the Olympic ITT he seemed to do much better in the flats than in the climbs even there.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

These polls! People only ever put riders in there they like! I'm also really angry Hodeg wasn't considered. He's still young and can improve.

And there will be a lot of GT stages where he will beat those who are in the poll.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

He's also just worse as climbs get steeper.

Picón Blanco and Murgil Tontorra want a word.

 

[SafeBet]

This is always one of the most interesting threads of the year.
Like last year, I will start with a review of my previous votes (riders who won a GT in bold):

• 2016: Chaves, Lopez, Bardet, Kruijswijk, Dumoulin
• 2017: Lopez
• 2018: Bernal, Mas, Lopez, Roglic, Kruijswijk
• 2019: Lopez, Sivakov, Kruijswijk, Evenepoel, Pogacar
• 2020: Carthy, Hindley, Almeida, Evenepoel

Carapaz was an option in 2018 and is the only GT winner I haven't voted for. Out of curiosity I will list other riders who won a GT since 2017 and weren't included in the polls: Simon Yates, Tao Geoghegan Hart

Conclusion: I vastly overestimate the number of possible GT winners, year in and year out. I should vote for max 1-2 riders per year but I routinely go for 4 or 5 (except in 2017). And I'm doing the same this year, I really can't fight it.
Riders I'm voting for this year:

• Remco Evenepoel: there's too much raw talent to pass.
• Joao Almeida: his Giro third week went a bit under the radar. He was arguably the best climber in the race at that point. My only doubt is how he will handle the new team environment.
• Jonas Vingegaard: still relatively young, excellent TTer, can handle long climbs, good recovery. Will he get opportunities at Jumbo?
• Dani Martinez: a lot to prove compared to both Almeida and Vingegaard but he's another solid TTer with great recovery skills. Finished 5th in the Giro riding as a domestique. Bit of a long shot but Ineos has forged GT winners out of lesser talents I believe.

 

[Red Rick]

Picón Blanco and Murgil Tontorra want a word.

Did better on Blanco than the steeper Lagunas de Neila.

CSS was won on the flats.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Did better on Blanco than the steeper Lagunas de Neila.

CSS was won on the flats.

How many steeper climbs than Picón Blanco feature in GTs each year? The Tour had nothing this year and only Glières and Marie Blanque, neither of which caused massive gaps, in 2020. The Giro had 3 kilometres of Zoncolan this year and the murito stage, which actually would have favoured Evenepoel, in 2020. Even the Vuelta only had Gamoniteiru this year, which is mainly longer and not that much steeper, and arguably also Balcón de Alicante, which didn't do much. And then obviously Angliru in 2020, which is one of very few climbs (Zoncolan from Ovaro, Mortirolo from Mazzo) both long and steep enough compared to Picón Blanco for weakness on such gradients to really damage GC chances, but they aren't frequent enough to significantly Evenepoel's chances of winning one GT - assuming the weakness even exists, which we don't have much data for.

San Sebastian was also won because he lost less than ten seconds to the group of favourites on Murgil Tontorra (and dropping Skujins in the process, but that matters little in this discussion) after expending lots of energy on the attack...

 

[Netserk]

No new GT winners this year, so I'll just copy my post from last year for context:

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

 

[Red Rick]

How many steeper climbs than Picón Blanco feature in GTs each year? The Tour had nothing this year and only Glières and Marie Blanque, neither of which caused massive gaps, in 2020. The Giro had 3 kilometres of Zoncolan this year and the murito stage, which actually would have favoured Evenepoel, in 2020. Even the Vuelta only had Gamoniteiru this year, which is mainly longer and not that much steeper, and Balcón de Alicante, which didn't do much. And then obviously Angliru in 2020, which is one of very few climbs (Zoncolan from Ovaro, Mortirolo from Mazzo) both long and steep enough compared to Picón Blanco for weakness on such gradients to really damage GC chances, but they aren't frequent enough to significantly Evenepoel's chances of winning one GT - assuming the weakness even exists, which we don't have much data for.

San Sebastian was also won because he lost less than ten seconds to the group of favourites on Murgil Tontorra (and dropping Skujins in the process, but that matters little in this discussion) after spending lots of energy on the attack...

Picon Blanco was an Unipuerto stage that featured echelons before the climb. In races with both shallower and steeper climbs of similar length, he basically always does better on the shallower climbs.

And I'm simply not convinced he has it yet for a pure W/kg test. And if you get dropped by the best 3-5 GC riders every MTF, it's nearly impossible to win a GT.

 

[southwards]

He's also just worse as climbs get steeper. In fact in the Olympic ITT he seemed to do much better in the flats than in the climbs even there.

Agreed, but why so? Is there any physiological reason for this? He's quite small in size, he's not a Ganna or an Asgreen, if it is something technical or training related, it can be fixed.

 

[Red Rick]

Agreed, but why so? Is there any physiological reason for this? He's quite small in size, he's not a Ganna or an Asgreen, if it is something technical or training related, it can be fixed.

In relation to a guy like Roglic he's probably just worse at W/kg.

But compared to a Ganna or Asgreen, maybe he's not as great at yanking through oxygen debt. Or maybe he paced harder on the flats in the first place.

There's a thing called crank inertial load that makes pushing the pedals slightly different between riding on a flat and going uphill, and maybe Evenepoel doesn't deal with that difference that well.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

In relation to a guy like Roglic he's probably just worse at W/kg.

But compared to a Ganna or Asgreen, maybe he's not as great at yanking through oxygen debt. Or maybe he paced harder on the flats in the first place.

There's a thing called crank inertial load that makes pushing the pedals slightly different between riding on a flat and going uphill, and maybe Evenepoel doesn't deal with that difference that well.

Probably also why you have a guy like Landa who was not the skinniest when at Astana or Sky and yet made climbing look so easy in those days.

 

[Leinster]

1. Almeida (Not TdF due to Tadej)
2. Vingegaard (TdF performance was incredible but needs to back it up, Hindley, Tao etc)
3. Mas (Vuelta only)

I went for these 3. I don’t consider Vingo’s TdF ride comparable to Tao/Jai’s Giro at all.

 

[Red Rick]

Probably also why you have a guy like Landa who was not the skinniest when at Astana or Sky and yet made climbing look so easy in those days.

Harder for shorter guys to look outrageously skinny tbh.

 

[Valanga]

Picón Blanco and Murgil Tontorra want a word.

Or Sormano. At least he was better uphill on that murito than downhill.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

In relation to a guy like Roglic he's probably just worse at W/kg.

But compared to a Ganna or Asgreen, maybe he's not as great at yanking through oxygen debt. Or maybe he paced harder on the flats in the first place.

There's a thing called crank inertial load that makes pushing the pedals slightly different between riding on a flat and going uphill, and maybe Evenepoel doesn't deal with that difference that well.

Judging by some of the numbers he posted it seems his FPT is at least 380 watts (over 6.2 w/kg if he weights 61 kilos). If this is not elite then I don't know what is. He should be able to produce about 6.5 w/kg for 20+ minutes and I think he did posted some 390+ watts efforts of similar length.