Then why did he reverse attack just about every mountain stage in the Giro
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On stage 6 of the Giro he was one of only 3 riders able to stay with Bernal. On stage 9 he was 4th only 10 seconds behind Bernal. He was quite good in the first half of the race (though he lacked uphill explosivity of Bernal for sure). What happened in the second half of the Giro is most likely the result of him not being ready for such a long race. Before jumping to conclusions we should wait until next GT by him.
I'm not sure why some see Vingegaard riding for Jumbo as a minus when discussing future GT winner. Even if we are talking who will be the quickest to win a GT among the options in the poll. If he is close
to the level he's been in 2021, he has a non insignificant chance to win the Tour as soon as next year. It's no coincidence bet365 has him as the third favourite for the Tour next year, only behind Pogačar and Roglič. Jumbo will probably be aggressive in their fight against Pogačar and will probably use a double "leader" approach. Think Carapaz and Landa approach against Roglič and Nibali in the 2019 Giro.
to the level he's been in 2021, he has a non insignificant chance to win the Tour as soon as next year. It's no coincidence bet365 has him as the third favourite for the Tour next year, only behind Pogačar and Roglič. Jumbo will probably be aggressive in their fight against Pogačar and will probably use a double "leader" approach. Think Carapaz and Landa approach against Roglič and Nibali in the 2019 Giro.
Lol...
There wasn't a single moment in the 2018 Tour in which Kruijswijk was riding for Roglič. Actually it looked almost like he was riding against him. He brought Froome back to Rogla multiple times, after he had been dropped by the Slovenian.
Kruijswijk was the GC leader of the team at the beginning of the Tour 2018. Roglič had a free role back then despite it was already obvious, he was the better rider. But he had never ridden a GT for GC before and he wasn't even sure at the beginning, if he was going for stages or if he was going to try and hang on in GC. That's why Kruijswijk got a full team support going for GC and that's fine. But he was never riding for Roglič, not at all.
In 2016 Kruijswijk was very strong yes, probably the strongest he's ever been. But I don't like to use Nibali as a point of reference in that race (not until stage 19 at least) tbh. He was 25th in the MTT on stage 15, in a discipline he usually excelled at when he was in top shape. It was one of the worst Nibalies I can remember. Almost Antonio Nibali level.
About Tour 2019 field....
I think it was one of the weakest in recent memory but still, you only have to beat who is racing against you. And it's not fair to say "Oh, Roglic's domestique was third so the field had to be weak"... Kruijswijk was stronger than he is now and had a very strong team around him. Then you can say about the most recent Vuelta..."Look who is in 3rd, Landa's domestique. The field is super weak..."
I just think that Dani Martinez has no chance. Not only because of his descending issues but because he is at Ineos. He could end up being the shadow of Egan Bernal just like Porte was to Froome. Just saying.
I agree with you. Martinez is going to win next year's Giro
He has to hope Masnada is not there.I agree with you. Martinez is going to win next year's Giro
Yeah, the JV team have resources, and a full, GT-winning infrastructure in place, and 2 GT winners as leaders on the books who are the wrong age of 30. Within the next season or 2, they’ll be looking for an heir, and right now Vingo is in pole position for the job.
For me it's 100% about them being Tour obsessed and loving to send 3 "leaders" to the Tour.
railxmig
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Vingegaard came out of nowhere (relative). Same with Tao (also relative). Most likely someone i'm overlooking and none in this poll. I'm looking at Johannessen bros (new Schlecks?), Hellemose, Foss (new Ewans?), Lipowitz, Gloag (new Tao?), Skjelmose Jensen, Ayuso, Rodriguez, Leemreize and a buch of new potential Belgian goats (Van WIlder, Vandenabeele etc). Recently there seems to a shift towards better sprinters so maybe even someone like Mick van Dijke!? I'm overlooking Zana but he's Italian so he most likely will find out a way to screw up.
From the presented poll O'Connor and Mader are imo the riders with biggest chances of random results. Vingegaard is probably the ost random in this roster but he already had his random result so i have my doubts about at least next year. I would also risk it and add Van Aert!?!? Eventpoll needs to relearn how to descent and show he's capable of consistently handling high mountains within 3 (or at least 2) weeks. I wonder, will Dunbar be next Tao?
I may sound very pro-French but i wonder where's Gaudu's limit. I think being a next Bardet is in his grasps. I don't think Champussin will be a GT guy unless he's be top 11 like G. Martin (which most likely means he'll be winning TdF's left, right and center) and i don't ave enough intel on younger Paret-Peintre to judge him right now.
From the presented poll O'Connor and Mader are imo the riders with biggest chances of random results. Vingegaard is probably the ost random in this roster but he already had his random result so i have my doubts about at least next year. I would also risk it and add Van Aert!?!? Eventpoll needs to relearn how to descent and show he's capable of consistently handling high mountains within 3 (or at least 2) weeks. I wonder, will Dunbar be next Tao?
I may sound very pro-French but i wonder where's Gaudu's limit. I think being a next Bardet is in his grasps. I don't think Champussin will be a GT guy unless he's be top 11 like G. Martin (which most likely means he'll be winning TdF's left, right and center) and i don't ave enough intel on younger Paret-Peintre to judge him right now.
That's a lol/random call i can back up. I'll be the conductor of the Ethan Hayter the new GT - Geraint Tomas the Tank Engine choo choo train.
Yeah, this is my thinking too. I may be totally wrong but I didn't see anything besides a quality rider. It's a lot harder to fluke the Tour than the Vuelta or Giro, no matter how weak the competition. Unless you're Jean Christophe Peraud.
Interesting, because my doubts about Vingegaard also go back to the 2014 Tour except I was thinking Pinot.
Young rider makes podium but still finishes 30 minutes behind the winner and only after top contenders crash out and/or rode the Giro instead.
Time will tell, and it's possible Vingegaard will turn out to just be a Danish vanGarderen, but at this stage you have to say he looks good for the future.
I agree with that - I see it as a huge plus for him. Even riding the Tour alongside Roglic will improve his chances of winning that, because there probably needs to be some tactics involved for anyone to beat Pogacar.
Agree completely. I just threw out Peraud as the last real surprise 2nd place in the Tour before Vingegaard, but he was a talented and versatile rider who could TT and had a great VTT career too. But his road results wouldn't have suggested a podium at the Tour at a late age...
The reason I believe in Vingegaard and believe he's not just another TGH is that he didn't have a window where he was supposed to develop and kinda became a fringe top 10 rider like TGH was in 2019.
We can say he's 24 year yeah, but it was also only his 2nd season of riding GTs.
I also don't recall Tao beating Pogacar on Mt Ventoux or matching him in the Pyrenees and TTs. Vingegaard is the next big thing.
Well, I don't find Pinot's comparison right. If memory serves me right, Nibali was head and shoulders above the opposition in that tour.
Meanwhile Pogacar's main gain was in Le Grand Bornand stage. Where, I think, opposition gave up fight for the win and totally ignored Pog. Not that anyone would match him, but 3.20 seconds is.. Massive. Also, Vingegaard's team and he, himself were hindered by crashes. And outside of the Alps Pog didn't gain any time, and it's not like he was not trying..
Totally different to the Nibali and Pinot's tour, where Nibali basically gained time anywhere he wanted to.
I'd also like to add that Pinot would have had a very good shot at winning the 2019 Tour had he not run into an injury at the worst possible time, so even if Vingegaard's 2021 is Pinot's 2014, that doesn't mean he can't win a GT. And Vingegaard beat Carapaz instead of losing to a Peraud type, quite a big difference.
For my money:
Aleksandr Vlasov - could possible step up and become a GT winner contender, but at the moment he hasn't been showing enough consistency.
Ben O'Connor - I don't think he will be a GT winner contender. To to that he would have to up his game on the ITT and become consistent at a high level in mountain stages.
Daniel Martínez - I don't think he will be a GT winner contender, whilst at INEOS. If he leaves INEOS than I think yes: he has top mountain skills, consistency and decent ITT.
Enric Mas - to me he will continue to be a podium type rider, thanks to his enormous consistency in mountain stages. However, we hardly see him exceling and his ITT is dreadful.
Gino Mäder - he has been a positive surprise this season, and only at 24 years old. I wouldn't be surprised to see him upping his game to a GT podium level, and who knows if from there he could be a GT winner contender.
Jack Haig - to me his 3rd place at the Vuelta is as good as he is going to get. I can see him podiuming a few more times, but at 28 and with 8 GTs in the pocket I can't see him becoming a GT winner.
João Almeida - together with JV is my top choice for a GT win from this list. He has the ITT, the consistency and he has shown this year to have the world class climbing skills - perhaps not to win the Stelvio with two minutes to everyone, but if he is able to climb with the best and then have ITTs only second to the likes of Ganna, he is a GT contender on any GT where Roglic isn't (I'm not counting with Pogacar as they will be team mates).
Jonas Vingegaard - his Tour was a positive surprise. He needs to do that more often throughout the season for me to rank him above the likes of Almeida, or on par with Carapaz and Bernal, but we certainly want to see more of that and only on his second WT season.
Miguel Ángel López - doesn't a chance. He is lacking the ITT skills, consistency and brains.
Remco Evenepoel - he can either become the next best thing after the Slovenians, better than them or just a Classics rider with no 3 week GT capacity. He has the talent to be the best, but a lot of work to do on his bike skills and head shape.
There are other names that could be added to this list, as others mentioned: Foss, Rodriguez, Ayuso and the Norwegians, just to name a few.
Aleksandr Vlasov - could possible step up and become a GT winner contender, but at the moment he hasn't been showing enough consistency.
Ben O'Connor - I don't think he will be a GT winner contender. To to that he would have to up his game on the ITT and become consistent at a high level in mountain stages.
Daniel Martínez - I don't think he will be a GT winner contender, whilst at INEOS. If he leaves INEOS than I think yes: he has top mountain skills, consistency and decent ITT.
Enric Mas - to me he will continue to be a podium type rider, thanks to his enormous consistency in mountain stages. However, we hardly see him exceling and his ITT is dreadful.
Gino Mäder - he has been a positive surprise this season, and only at 24 years old. I wouldn't be surprised to see him upping his game to a GT podium level, and who knows if from there he could be a GT winner contender.
Jack Haig - to me his 3rd place at the Vuelta is as good as he is going to get. I can see him podiuming a few more times, but at 28 and with 8 GTs in the pocket I can't see him becoming a GT winner.
João Almeida - together with JV is my top choice for a GT win from this list. He has the ITT, the consistency and he has shown this year to have the world class climbing skills - perhaps not to win the Stelvio with two minutes to everyone, but if he is able to climb with the best and then have ITTs only second to the likes of Ganna, he is a GT contender on any GT where Roglic isn't (I'm not counting with Pogacar as they will be team mates).
Jonas Vingegaard - his Tour was a positive surprise. He needs to do that more often throughout the season for me to rank him above the likes of Almeida, or on par with Carapaz and Bernal, but we certainly want to see more of that and only on his second WT season.
Miguel Ángel López - doesn't a chance. He is lacking the ITT skills, consistency and brains.
Remco Evenepoel - he can either become the next best thing after the Slovenians, better than them or just a Classics rider with no 3 week GT capacity. He has the talent to be the best, but a lot of work to do on his bike skills and head shape.
There are other names that could be added to this list, as others mentioned: Foss, Rodriguez, Ayuso and the Norwegians, just to name a few.
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