Future GT Winner (Edition 2022)

Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Aleksandr Vlasov

  • Carlos Rodríguez

  • Cian Uijtdebroeks

  • David Gaudu

  • Enric Mas

  • João Almeida

  • Juan Ayuso

  • Miguel Ángel López

  • Mikel Landa

  • Thymen Arensman


Results are only viewable after voting.
Welcome to the eleventh edition of this yearly poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. This year was exceptional, because there were three new GT winners. Jai Hindley wasn't in last year's poll, but he finished fourth two years ago. Jonas Vingegaard won last year's poll, and delivered. Remco Evenepoel finished second, first and third in the three previous polls. That means two of the forum's predictions have come true in one year! If you have riders in mind who aren't listed, you can mention them in the thread.

So which of these cyclists are most likely to win a GT at some point in their career? You have multiple votes.

Past winners of this poll:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
2020 Remco Evenepoel (won Vuelta 2022)
2021 Jonas Vingegaard (won Tour 2022)
2022 ???
 
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I voted for the two young Spaniards. Perhaps also Mas will win the Vuelta once if the very top GC riders are occupied in the Tour (or Giro). Unsure abotut Almeida or Vlasov. Could see one of them as a Giro winner, but Almeida needs to improve some in the mountains now. He can't diesel himself to being half a minute or a minute behind the top climbers in every mountain stage if he wants to win at Grand Tour.
 
If Jai Hindley can win a Grand Tour, anyone on this list can. However, the only rider I have firm believe in is Juanito Ayuso. The rest simply are too limited in certain areas or do not push high enough watts me thinks. I wouldn't rule out anyone eventually winning a random Giro or Vuelta, but they're depended on the field and/or the course and that is too much of a variable to definitively say. Therefore, I'll hold them to my standard of a Grand Tour winner, which falls on a simple question: can they, over a three week period, be the best rider in the world? The answer for me is no except for Ayuso.
 
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If Jai Hindley can win a Grand Tour, anyone on this list can. However, the only rider I have firm believe in is Juanito Ayuso. The rest simply are too limited in certain areas or do not push high enough watts me thinks. I wouldn't rule out anyone eventually winning a random Giro or Vuelta, but they're depended on the field and/or the course and that is too much of a variable to definitively say. Therefore, I'll hold them to my standard of a Grand Tour winner, which falls on a simple question: can they, over a three week period, be the best rider in the world? The answer for me is no except for Ayuso.
What exactly is Carlos Rodriguez missing?
 
What exactly is Carlos Rodriguez missing?
Pure watts uphill. I have been following Carlitos for a very long time and never seen a future Grand Tour winner. Out of everyone on the list, Carlos is by far the most complete and I've always looked at him as a Kwiatkowski, Sivakov rouleur type of rider. Does everything oh so well, but, however, doesn't excel in anything.
 
If Jai Hindley can win a Grand Tour, anyone on this list can. However, the only rider I have firm believe in is Juanito Ayuso. The rest simply are too limited in certain areas or do not push high enough watts me thinks. I wouldn't rule out anyone eventually winning a random Giro or Vuelta, but they're depended on the field and/or the course and that is too much of a variable to definitively say. Therefore, I'll hold them to my standard of a Grand Tour winner, which falls on a simple question: can they, over a three week period, be the best rider in the world? The answer for me is no except for Ayuso.
Thats not really a good indicator though. Sure, you might then vote once in a while for riders like Pogacar, Bernal and Ayuso, but otherwise you probably won't be able to cast a vote.

If that means not voting for Rodriguez, I definitely disagree with that method anyways.
 
Pure watts uphill. I have been following Carlitos for a very long time and never seen a future Grand Tour winner. Out of everyone on the list, Carlos is by far the most complete and I've always looked at him as a Kwiatkowski, Sivakov rouleur type of rider. Does everything oh so well, but, however, doesn't excel in anything.
Okay. Though he would be a contender for the Giro or Tour when he can finish top 7 in the Vuelta at an age of 21. I'm more doubting when it comes to Almeida or Vlasov. Not sure about Arensmen either.
 
Thats not really a good indicator though. Sure, you might then vote once in a while for riders like Pogacar, Bernal and Ayuso, but otherwise you probably won't be able to cast a vote.

If that means not voting for Rodriguez, I definitely disagree with that method anyways.
How is it not a good indicator? It's the perfect indicator if you ask me. Things like depth/field of competition, course, covid are so much of a variable, that they make it impossible to predict who can or cannot win. Therefore, the question as to who can outright beat anyone and everyone no matter the circumstances or variables presented seems like the ideal way to go to me. Ayuso is the only one capable to me.
 
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How is it not a good indicator? It's the perfect indicator if you ask me. Things like depth/field of competition, course, covid are so much of a variable, that they make it impossible to predict who can or cannot win. Therefore, the question as to who can outright beat anyone and everyone no matter the circumstances or variables presented seems like the ideal way to go to me. Ayuso is the only one capable to me.
I think i misspoke since that was very badly worded. Yes, its a great indicator, but the method seems really limited as you'd then only vote for absolute superstars like I listed, where as I think the chances are quite a lot higher than 50% a rider like Carlos Rodriguez will win a GT. Maybe not TdF, but a Giro or especially the Vuelta should be more than possible. Just based on this season, I'd be surprised if he doesnt win one at one point, which is why I think hes worthy of a vote.
 
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I think i misspoke since that was very badly worded. Yes, its a great indicator, but the method seems really limited as you'd then only vote for absolute superstars like I listed, where as I think the chances are quite a lot higher than 50% a rider like Carlos Rodriguez will win a GT. Maybe not TdF, but a Giro or especially the Vuelta should be more than possible. Just based on this season, I'd be surprised if he doesnt win one at one point, which is why I think hes worthy of a vote.
Absolutely correct, but that's also precisely the point. Of course Carlos can win a Grand Tour. Jai Hindley has, and so has Tao Geoghegan Hart. Two riders I would deem inferior to Carlos. But the question then changes. It no longer is 'Do you think Carlos Rodriguez can win a Grand Tour?', but instead will look something like 'Hey, do you think the stars will ever align in such a way in order for Carlos Rodriguez to win a Grand Tour?'. He becomes dependent on things he holds no power over (e.g. the quality of the startlist or the amount of time trialing kilometers) , and that is not something I wish to hold a prediction onto. Therefore, I'm opting for not giving him a vote in this regard.
 
Absolutely correct, but that's also precisely the point. Of course Carlos can win a Grand Tour. Jai Hindley has, and so has Tao Geoghegan Hart. Two riders I would deem inferior to Carlos. But the question then changes. It no longer is 'Do you think Carlos Rodriguez can win a Grand Tour?', but instead will look something like 'Hey, do you think the stars will ever align in such a way in order for Carlos Rodriguez to win a Grand Tour?'. He becomes dependent on things he holds no power over (e.g. the quality of the startlist or the amount of time trialing kilometers) , and that is not something I wish to hold a prediction onto. Therefore, I'm opting for not giving him a vote in this regard.
Yeah well, then my point would be that riders like Hindley and Tao would sit quite a bit below that 50% likelyhood, especially the ladder, and the stars did indeed align. How I see it, the stars doesn't have to align for Rodriguez since he still sits at 21 years of age and seems to be super consistent throughout 3 weeks across all terrain. Thats a GT winner at least 7/10 times for me, and he doesn't have to bank on a Tour 2006, Tour 2008 and Giro 2020-scenario at all. He can win straight up. If he can beat Remco, Ayuso and Pogacar all at their best? Most likely not, but then again, who knows.

Who would you vote for given your criteria the last 15 years? Bertie, Remco, Bernal, Ayuso, Pog.. Quintana maybe? Nibs? Because a rider like Nibali is probably the one who reminds me the best of Carlos at this stage, and Carlos was obviously a lot better than he was at 21.
 
Votes for MAL:

2017: 71
2018: 44
2019: 25
2020: 11
2021: 5
2022: ?

MAL and Almeida have to be the two riders with most votes the last few years that still haven't won a GT. Other riders with many votes without a GT win is Mas and Chaves. And suprised when looking at previous versions the number of votes that some riders got. Especially Sivakov in 2019 and Zakarin in 2017.
 
Well, the previous editions proved that CN forum consists of the finest experts on the planet. I strongly expected Vingegaard and Evenepoel to win a GT and it happened. My 3rd pick was Almeida but I'm not sure now - the GC bar is set really high, maybe too high for him plus there are two GC guys stronger than him in the team already. Ayuso is really young and already strong so he's my natural candidate here. Rodriguez and Arensman are also promising. I haven't seen Uijtdebroeks much but he's obviously very talented.
Not sure what to do with Mas - he can surely win the Vuelta but needs a weaker field without top stars like Rog, Pog, Vinge or Remco. And his time is running out - it won't be easier in years to come.
My prediction: Ayuso, Rodriguez, Arensman
I will leave Uijtdebroeks for the next year :p
 
I can understand that, since unlike Uijtdebroeks, he wasn't able to confirm his status of supertalent in the baby Giro or Avenir.
Were he included, I would not have voted for him either. He is way too small and thereby vulnerable in anything that is not a climb. It's what cost him the Girobio after the Mortirolo, where he was humiliated on the false flat. l'Avenir unfortunately was no reference, as he took quite a tumble over William Lecerf just before we'd arrive in the mountains. Does have a CX background though, so who knows.

I fear he is too limited to ever win a properly designed stage race, but his pure w/kg numbers will be mythical. The modern day Rujano.
 
I think what’s different this year about this poll, is that the real question is will one of these candidates get to ride a GT that doesn’t have Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco, or Roglic in it (or while not at full strength)?

Perhaps the only other time (for this poll) the path to 1st a GT win was so blockaded by better riders was when Bertie, Nibali, and Froome were in their peak years together.
 
Sep 12, 2022
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Voted Uijtdebroeks, Rodriguez, Ayuso and Arensman. None of them will win a GT next year, but definitely in the next 3 years. While Ayuso will eventually win the Vuelta, I think of those 4 I selected, only Uijtdebroeks will win a Tour de France
 
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