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Future GT Winner (Edition 2022)

Page 2 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
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Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Aleksandr Vlasov

  • Carlos Rodríguez

  • Cian Uijtdebroeks

  • David Gaudu

  • Enric Mas

  • João Almeida

  • Juan Ayuso

  • Miguel Ángel López

  • Mikel Landa

  • Thymen Arensman

Results are only viewable after voting.
O

OlavEH

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Number of nominated riders that have won a GT:

2015: 1 (Dumoulin)
2016: 1 (Dumoulin)
2017: 0 - most votes for MAL, Landa, Chaves and Zakarin
2018: 3 (Bernal, Roglic and Carapaz) - strangely Carapaz only got 7 votes, while a rider like Sivakov got 43.
2019: 2 (Remco and Pogacar)
2020: 2 (Remco and Hindley)
2021: 2 (Remco and Vingegaard)

Statistically, we could therefore expect 1-3 of the nominated riders to win a GT in the future and perhaps most likely 2. Ayuso seems obvious. And perhaps one more.
 
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Valv.Piti

Valv.Piti

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Berniece said:
Voted Uijtdebroeks, Rodriguez, Ayuso and Arensman. None of them will win a GT next year, but definitely in the next 3 years. While Ayuso will eventually win the Vuelta, I think of those 4 I selected, only Uijtdebroeks will win a Tour de France
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Ayuso is my favorite for La Vuelta is he sticks to a race program like he had this year. We know things happen and riders abandon TdF and focus on La Vuelta instead and in that case its out the window again, but as things stand right now and with 1 more year under his belt... it won't be easy to beat him.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

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Valv.Piti said:
Ayuso is my favorite for La Vuelta is he sticks to a race program like he had this year. We know things happen and riders abandon TdF and focus on La Vuelta instead and in that case its out the window again, but as things stand right now and with 1 more year under his belt... it won't be easy to beat him.
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I think he rode amazingly for his age, but mostly consistently. I think next year might be too early for him, since I don't think he already be the best climber. But I'm looking forward to being wrong, these young talents make the race way more interesting.
 
Devil's Elbow

Devil's Elbow

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Surely a matter of time - Ayuso
Maybe, maybe not - Rodriguez
Too early to judge accurately - Uijtdebroeks
Would be favoured in a weak Vuelta but won't win one otherwise - Mas
Probably not - Vlasov, Almeida, Arensman, Gaudu (in that order)
Definitely not - Lopez, Landa

So, one obvious vote, two which I really think could go either way, and everyone else is clearly below a 50% chance unless you expect the big guns will all miss/DNF/be in terrible form at the same Vuelta at some point in the next few years.

In the end I only voted for Ayuso. Rodriguez needs to make a sizeable step in terms of pure climbing ability, not sure if that's possible for someone who turned pro at such a young age and should therefore be getting more out of himself than most 21-year-olds. And Uijtdebroeks is 1m85, that's basically the upper limit for a GT winner, yet I'm not sure he has the TT prowess of someone like Froome. Didn't have an Evenepoel-tier (albeit still quite good) TT resume as a junior and his only professional ITT so far (TT Nats) was unremarkable.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

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Devil's Elbow said:
Surely a matter of time - Ayuso
Maybe, maybe not - Rodriguez
Too early to judge accurately - Uijtdebroeks
Would be favoured in a weak Vuelta but won't win one otherwise - Mas
Probably not - Vlasov, Almeida, Arensman, Gaudu (in that order)
Definitely not - Lopez, Landa

So, one obvious vote, two which I really think could go either way, and everyone else is clearly below a 50% chance unless you expect the big guns will all miss/DNF/be in terrible form at the same Vuelta at some point in the next few years.

In the end I only voted for Ayuso. Rodriguez needs to make a sizeable step in terms of pure climbing ability, not sure if that's possible for someone who turned pro at such a young age and should therefore be getting more out of himself than most 21-year-olds. And Uijtdebroeks is 1m85, that's basically the upper limit for a GT winner, yet I'm not sure he has the TT prowess of someone like Froome. Didn't have an Evenepoel-tier (albeit still quite good) TT resume as a junior and his only professional ITT so far (TT Nats) was unremarkable.
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TT skills are overrated, especially in very young riders.

They should get acceptable when the climbing watts start glowing.
 
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OlavEH

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Samu Cuenca said:
Winning a GT in PCM seems to be hard enough for Gaudu, so I very much doubt he'll ever win one in real life. Not that I would complain if he did.
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Agree, it won't happen. Besides the "meme options" MAL and Landa, I consider Gaudu to be the most unlikely of all the options here. Even in top shape and none of Pog, Rog, Remco or Vingegaard present in the Giro or the Vuelta, I have a very hard time seeing Gaudu beating the rest of the pack like Bernal, Hindley, Carapaz, the Yates brothers, the rest of the Aussies and Americans and all the guys listed here. Same also applies for Vlasov. And perhaps also Almeida, I don't think he have improved at all in the mountains since his breakthrough in the 2020 Giro.

I'm most curious about Arensman and how he will develop the coming years.
 
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Devil's Elbow

Devil's Elbow

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OlavEH said:
Fairly agree, but unsure about Arensman. Want to see him for at least one more season before saying probably or probably not.
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Pretty sure Arensman would be the tallest GT winner in history. Only recent-ish winner of similar height is Wiggins (2cm shorter), Arensman doesn't have that level of TT ability and even if he did, he isn't getting a 2012 Tour route. So he would need to reach a climbing level that nobody in his height category has ever reached, which happens to be a level he hasn't shown signs of yet. Seems a bit of a stretch (pun intended).
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

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Devil's Elbow said:
Pretty sure Arensman would be the tallest GT winner in history. Only recent-ish winner of similar height is Wiggins (2cm shorter), Arensman doesn't have that level of TT ability and even if he did, he isn't getting a 2012 Tour route. So he would need to reach a climbing level that nobody in his height category has ever reached, which happens to be a level he hasn't shown signs of yet. Seems a bit of a stretch (pun intended).
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Arensman is basically just hoping for Ineos buff. I don't know if Jumbo were in for him or not.

But anyway, different time, different king. I am very convinced the 2012 Tour was the only GT in the last 15 years Wiggins could have won despite winning it with 3 minutes.
 
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OlavEH

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Devil's Elbow said:
Pretty sure Arensman would be the tallest GT winner in history. Only recent-ish winner of similar height is Wiggins (2cm shorter), Arensman doesn't have that level of TT ability and even if he did, he isn't getting a 2012 Tour route. So he would need to reach a climbing level that nobody in his height category has ever reached, which happens to be a level he hasn't shown signs of yet. Seems a bit of a stretch (pun intended).
Click to expand...
Yeah, you might be right. I was even close to considering a guy like Jack Haig a plausible or even possible GT winner after his third place in the Vuelta, and it is very possible that Arensman will never be any more than 3-4-5-6 in a GT.

When it comes to future GTs, I think there are almost two separate topics of debate. Who can compete against Pog, Vingegaard and Remco in the Tour, and who can be competitive in the Giro or the Vuelta. I have always been and will probably continue to be more than average preoccupied with the Giro. The latest versions have been disappointing both in terms of route design and quality of the GC contenders, so I really hope it will improve the coming years. But I have a bit of a hard time seeing the big names for the Giro at least the next 2-3 years. Here we need both established top GC riders and new contenders to enter and be competitive.
 
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groogster

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If you ask me and only with potential and watts per kilo data… the only one from that list is Ayuso! All the others very much on par and dependable of GC field, parkour of the GT, strength of the team…
For instance I’m not seeing why Rodriguez or Arensman has more votes then Almeida, can’t see any difference between them, not even in watts per Kilo.
As for Cian… way to soon to know …
 
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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

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groogster said:
If you ask me and only with potential and watts per kilo data… the only one from that list is Ayuso! All the others very much on par and dependable of GC field, parkour of the GT, strength of the team…
For instance I’m not seeing why Rodriguez or Arensman has more votes then Almeida, can’t see any difference between them, not even in watts per Kilo.
As for Cian… way to soon to know …
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I think, even if they have similar w/kilo, the first two have not been exposed to GT races as much as Almeida. Remember that GT's are not only about w/kilo. There are other factors at play. You could be right but until we see the results of the riders trying several times I reserve the opinion on whether they can win or not. If Almeida goes another year without smelling the podium then you start to wonder whether he can win a GT. IMHO.
 
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tobydawq

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Red Rick said:
The hard part for me is that typically once riders stagnate it gets really hard for them to win one and it's quite easy to end up being a perennial 3rd-7th guy.

So while Landa and MAL are meme options at this point and Vlasov has also never been close, I'd also be very sceptical about a guy like Almeida.
Click to expand...

He is only 24, though. And during the Giro, he said that he was targeting a podium there and was still building to become a Grand Tour winner.

I think he is in with a shot and did pick him (and was surprised that so few others did).

For all my not often resorting to criticising routes, this Vuelta was a ridiculously poorly designed race and he definitely didn't benefit from the lack of hard mountain stages and easy third week. 7 minutes is obviously still a lot to lose to a younger rider but he probably still does have room for improvement and will not always get such a bad start.
 
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