Future GT Winner (Edition 2022)

[Netserk]

Lars Bak also didn't become a Grand Tour winner.

Better to ignore the recent non-U-23 editions.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Landa and Lopez are currently at one vote. I've considered replacing them, but after all they had another top 4 place this year. They are among the riders who have appeared most often in this poll :

6x Landa, Lopez, Pinot
5x Bardet, Porte

They belong to the category "eternal promises", guys who can have super days and are often among the best climbers, but lack the consistency or the luck to win a grand tour.

 

[SafeBet]

Usual recap of my previous votes (highlighted the GT winners):

• 2016: Chaves, Lopez, Bardet, Kruijswijk, Dumoulin
• 2017: Lopez
• 2018: Bernal, Mas, Lopez, Roglic, Kruijswijk
• 2019: Lopez, Sivakov, Kruijswijk, Evenepoel, Pogacar
• 2020: Carthy, Hindley, Almeida, Evenepoel
• 2021: Vlasov, Martinez, Almeida, Vingegaard, Evenepoel

Carapaz was an option in 2018 and is the only GT winner I haven't voted for (shout out to @DNP-Old who half-jokingly voted for him in 2016 when he was a complete nobody). Out of curiosity I will list the other riders who won a GT since 2017 and weren't included in the polls: Simon Yates, Tao Geoghegan Hart.

I always overestimate the number of possible GT winners. I should vote for max 1-2 riders per year but I routinely go for 4 or 5 (except in 2017). And I'm doing the same this year, I really can't fight it.

• Alexandr Vlasov: he has yet to put everything together in a GT, but he has shown this year that both his climbing and TTing can be elite or close to it. Recovery might be an issue, but I trust Bora.
• Carlos Rodriguez: Ivan Basso recently said he's one of the biggest talents he's seen, calling him hors categorie even in comparison to other great climbers he's seen in the Contador team (Mas, Juanpe Lopez). Top10 in his maiden GT + he showed he can suffer like the best three week riders. Team is perfect to develope that kind of engine.
• Cian Uijtdebroeks: not much data to base a selection on but his rookie year was quite something.
• Joao Almeida: third year in a row I vote for him, could be the last. Got worse as a TTer with UAE, which is concerning, but I have a soft spot for him.
• Juan Ayuso: first teenager to podium a GT in over 100 years. Won't win one only if physical issues hamper his development.

I will also vote for Andrea Piccolo, the next italian unicorn.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Landa and Lopez are currently at one vote. I've considered replacing them, but after all they had another top 4 place this year. They are among the riders who have appeared most often in this poll :

6x Landa, Lopez, Pinot
5x Bardet, Porte

They belong to the category "eternal promises", guys who can have super days and are often among the best climbers, but lack the consistency or the luck to win a grand tour.

I voted for Landa, don't know who voted for Superman

 

[perico]

Superman is still only 28 years old. I see him more likely to get one than some riders. Needs to put all his focus one the Giro next year.

 

[Escarabajo]

Mas was one patch of oil on the road , one antigen test, one bout of diarrhoea, one stupid touch of wheels away from winning a GT a few days ago!

I know I know. But there are some riders that have been close several times but their time feels like a mile. Riders like Uran. He needs a small push and certain conditions. He needs some conditions such as some GT contenders targeting different race, illness on some other key riders, crashes on others, covid, peak performance, more confidence, 2 spoons of sugar, a drop of olive oil and love from Chente and you'll have a winner.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Mas has lost the Vuelta in 2018 to peak Si Yates, lost in 2021 to peak Primoz Roglic (the strongest version in La Vuelta IMO) and to a flying Remco who obliterated everyone in the first 10 days with not enough space to really contest the win in the last week.

Unlucky, Im sure he will come back and give it a good go again. At this point, chances are probably below 50% of him ever winning considering the likes of Rodriguez and Ayuso (who we assume will focus a good amount on exactly this race given their nationality).

 

[IndianCyclist]

Only the one who selects the GT which does not have Pogacar or Vingegaard or Roglic or Bernal or Remco

 

[perico]

Only the one who selects the GT which does not have Pogacar or Vingegaard or Roglic or Bernal or Remco

Bernal hasn't looked like the same since 2019. Even his Giro win in 2021 was a bit underwhelming and he was very average at La Vuelta. It's one thing to run up against top level Pogacar, but he wasn't climbing on the level of Roglic, or even Mas and Lopez.

Not to mention that all that was before his last accident. No one knows how he will be now or if he will even be the same rider.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Honestly I don’t have a lot of faith in MAL unless he shows up in his best shape AND doesn’t lose stupid time. I would rate quite a bit of riders ahead of him.


If we started this in 2009-2011 on the forum I’m sure A. Schleck, Nibali, Gesink, TGBM, Wiggins, Kruijswijk, and Kreuziger would have got a lot of the votes. While Scarponi, Cobo, Horner, and Ryder H won and would have gotten a view. I think Andy or Nibali would have won 2009 with Kreuziger third, Andy won 2010 with Gesink and Kreuziger second and third. 2011 Wiggins would have won with TGBM and Kruijswijk up there.

 

[perico]

Honestly I don’t have a lot of faith in MAL unless he shows up in his best shape AND doesn’t lose stupid time. I would rate quite a bit of riders ahead of him.


If we started this in 2009-2011 on the forum I’m sure A. Schleck, Nibali, Gesink, TGBM, Wiggins, Kruijswijk, and Kreuziger would have got a lot of the votes. While Scarponi, Cobo, Horner, and Ryder H. I think Andy or Nibali would have won 2009 with Kreuziger third, Andy won 2010 with Gesink and Kreuziger second and third. 2011 Wiggins would have won with TGBM and Kruijswijk up there.

I don't rate him that highly either, but I also don't see him as spent goods. Mas either for that matter because historically they are still young riders. They won't ever dominate like prime Hinault, but in the right circumstances, guys like them are hardly on the downswing. If Jai Hindley can win a GT, I have little doubt that Superman could pull one off as well, though Mas is much more likely cosidering that he is a much more consistent rider.

 

[Escarabajo]

Yesterday I heard the nutrition regime from Carlos Alcaraz. It is nuts. Johan Bruyneel mentioned all the information, nutrition and exercise regimes that all these youngsters have and it is no wonder why they can reach peak and compete at the highest level so early in life. I know how Bernal used to do with his nutrition plan (starvation plan) before he won the Tour de France. It is crazy. Remco keeps repeating about what he had to do (I am not sure if it was a huge sacrifice for him) in order to win. I saw a picture of him at the beginning of the year and compared it with the ones from the Vuelta and the difference is huge. Someone at QS convinced him of what he had to do in order to win. More youngsters like these ones will keep coming up the ranks. We already saw that with the Lavenir winner. With riders with talent and discipline like these ones the opportunity for winning the GTs is shrinking and closing for some of the riders in the poll and many others not in the poll.

I won't be surprise if some of the riders retire early in the professional life unless they adopt this type of living like their own. Otherwise the phycological toll is very high.

My 2 cents.

 

[Jan the Man]

Rather predictably perhaps but I went for Ayuso, Rodriguez and Arensman

 

[Bolder]

Mas has lost the Vuelta in 2018 to peak Si Yates, lost in 2021 to peak Primoz Roglic (the strongest version in La Vuelta IMO) and to a flying Remco who obliterated everyone in the first 10 days with not enough space to really contest the win in the last week.

Unlucky, Im sure he will come back and give it a good go again. At this point, chances are probably below 50% of him ever winning considering the likes of Rodriguez and Ayuso (who we assume will focus a good amount on exactly this race given their nationality).

Mas may have gained some confidence from this Vuelta. And he may have a different team of riders after Valverde retires. If he gets a strong team of domestiques and takes some chances, I could see him winning a Vuelta or Giro, but I agree that Ayuso and Rodriguez have more upside at this point...

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Like maybe being 42nd pick for the list last year and 68th this year?

Life is not fair

 

[RedheadDane]

Landa and Lopez are currently at one vote. I've considered replacing them, but after all they had another top 4 place this year. They are among the riders who have appeared most often in this poll :

6x Landa, Lopez, Pinot
5x Bardet, Porte

They belong to the category "eternal promises", guys who can have super days and are often among the best climbers, but lack the consistency or the luck to win a grand tour.

You started doing this in 2014 - with an early version in 2012 - right?
So, nobody has been on the poll every year without getting a GT win. Quite obvious why Pinot dropped off the poll, and I think both Landa and Lopez only joined later on.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think I've seem Vine do a race where he didn't crash

Roglic won 3 Vueltas tho

 

[Red Rick]

Strongest TT rider in the world by far, 2nd best climber in the race, how many TdF against same opposition would he not have win? Assuming sky kept a leash on Froome.

There was only 1 Grand Tour with the 2012 Tour field and team.

The 2012 Tour

 

[BigCoward]

There was only 1 Grand Tour with the 2012 Tour field and team.

The 2012 Tour

He was also in form and favourite in 2011. His best is far better than cadels best.

 

[Red Rick]

He was also in form and favourite in 2011. His best is far better than cadels best.

Wiggins wouldn't survive those mountains or descent attacks

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Arensman is basically just hoping for Ineos buff. I don't know if Jumbo were in for him or not.

But anyway, different time, different king. I am very convinced the 2012 Tour was the only GT in the last 15 years Wiggins could have won despite winning it with 3 minutes.

Jumbo wanted Arensman as wel. Ineos got to him tho

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Also re: Arensman

I see a lot "but it's his 4th GT". Yes, but that means jack *** when this is the first one he is only trying to ride a GC, and it's also the 2nd one this year.
In 2020, he rode quite a tame program and rode the Vuelta in a free role.
In 2021 same, mostly domestique, and then Vuelta as free role
2022 Giro was meant for Bardet, then turned attacker when Bardet was gone. And this is the first time he actually tried as a GC rider.

Now i'm not saying he could've done better sooner. I'm just saying that using purely "it's his 4th gt already, the others are good in their 1st gt so it's more impressive" is not a good argument, in my opinion.

Look at Dumoulin, did plenty of GT's and stage racers before even being considered a stage racer...
Roglic first GT he was like what, 35th in GC?

 

[Red Rick]

Also re: Arensman

I see a lot "but it's his 4th GT". Yes, but that means jack *** when this is the first one he is only trying to ride a GC, and it's also the 2nd one this year.
In 2020, he rode quite a tame program and rode the Vuelta in a free role.
In 2021 same, mostly domestique, and then Vuelta as free role
2022 Giro was meant for Bardet, then turned attacker when Bardet was gone. And this is the first time he actually tried as a GC rider.

Now i'm not saying he could've done better sooner. I'm just saying that using purely "it's his 4th gt already, the others are good in their 1st gt so it's more impressive" is not a good argument, in my opinion.

Look at Dumoulin, did plenty of GT's and stage racers before even being considered a stage racer...
Roglic first GT he was like what, 35th in GC?

Roglic was very impressive in his first Giro. Lost the prologue by a hair, won the long ITT, and was always a few hairpins down to catch Kruijswijk should he fall off the mountain going uphill.

 

[AlfaLum]

For me this is always a very hard poll, because seeing a rider as a potential GT winner is not just simply a yes or no question, but rather a scale of likeliness that a riders wins a GT at some point. With that being said I decided to go for Ayuso and Rodriguez only.

Juan Ayuso (Prediction 70-90%)
Doesn't need a whole story around it I guess. If you can do this will in a GT at that age in your first year as a professional rider, than the expectancy should be that you win a Grand Tour at some point in your career. He will do it.

Carlos Rodriguez (Prediction 60-80%)
Bit if the same as Ayuso, but obviously a bit older. Has the same advantage as Ayuso that he is very likely to take the Vuelta seriously at a number of different occassions. So even if he doesn't reach the level of Pogacar, Vingegaard or Remco he should still be capable of winning a GT at some point in his career. Given how he is progressing and how little weaknesses he seems to have I wouldn't be surprised if he wins one at some point.

Thymen Arensman (Prediction 35-45%)
Maybe I rate his chances a bit too low, because before this year he definitely wouldn't have been on my list as I think he lacks a bit as a climber. However he has done tremendously well this Vuelta and I think he can grow further once he goes to a top tier team. Still he has developed quite a bit further, and it remains to be seen how often he will rider a Giro/Vuelta for the GC himself. Tour is obviously much harder too win, but with him being Dutch it is quite likely that he will race many a season going for the Tour GC if he reaches the necessary level for that.

Joao Almeida (Prediction 20-30%)
Rating him a bit lower than the guys before. Somehow I just don't feel like he will ever get the edge over all his comptitors in a GT. What speaks for him to a slight degree is that he will probably focus on the Giro and Vuelta quite a bit due to Pogacar. Whats speaks against him is that Ayuso is also there, who is already at the same level. For now it might happen if it all falls into place in for example next year's Giro, but I think Almeida might have less chances to win a GT then his current age would imply

Aleksandr Vlasov (Prediction 25-40%)
Dont know why but I rate him a bit higher than Almeida. On the days that it works for him Vlasov really is the winning type where Almeida usually still suffers, only to come back if the other favorites look at each other a bit too much. What speaks against Vlasov is that I see Bora lining him up for the Tour in the next couple of years. But should Vlasov do a Giro I could see him winning a GT fairly soon. But also for him I think he will just have the occasional chance.

Cian Uijtdebroekx (10-50%)
Very hard to rate for me currently. Very talented guy of course, but he could end anywhere between being a genuine GC contender everywhere he starts or riding for spots 6-10 in GTs in a couple of year. Just hasn't done enough WT races for me to do a bold prediction.

Other guys that I would mention at the moment is Mathias Skjelmose Jensen, who is missing some climbing ability, but is pushing the watts in TTs and has very good overall racing skills in any other profile. If he manages to improve his longer efforts on climbs I can actually see him becoming a real GC contender in one week races first and actual GTs after. Also I will make a prediction by saying that Emil Herzog will appear on this list in the next 3-4 years.

Other guys like Lopez, Landa, Gaudu etc. just lacking too many skills for me to see them winning a GT. Mas might do it, but I am gonna guess he will end without a GT win by the end of his career.

 

[DNP-Old]

Also I will make a prediction by saying that Emil Herzog will appear on this list in the next 3-4 years.

Herzog is gigantic and weighs nearly 75 kg. He would have to slim down immensely if he ever wanted to be a GC threat in a grand tour. He is much more of a Schachmann type of rider.