Future GT Winner (Edition 2022)

[tobydawq]

Don‘t really see the room for improvement, although I‘d happily be wrong here

Isn't he almost a teenager?

 

[Big Doopie]

Voted:

1. Uijtdebroeks
2. Rodriguez
3. Ayuso

Ayuso seems the most obvious for sure. However, he has apparently been followed by coaches and on very strict training regimen for years so there may be questions of how much he may progress. He also looks physically mature. I know crazy really. Cuz he is the most obvious, but…

 

[Big Doopie]

Amused by the many “way too soon to know” meme for Cian.

He is the youngest ever winner of the Tour de l’Avenir.

Avenir has been an amazing predictor of future GT winners throughout history, but particularly in recent times.

Seems a much, much more certain choice than Mas, Vlasov, Almeida, who have all already somewhat shown their limits, come up short and been very clearly unable to compete with the very best.

and, hell, he’s Belgian. ;-)

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Amused by the many “way too soon to know” meme for Cian.

He is the youngest ever winner of the Tour de l’Avenir.

Avenir has been an amazing predictor of future GT winners throughout history, but particularly in recent times.

Seems a much, much more certain choice than Mas, Vlasov, Almeida, who have all already somewhat shown their limits, come up short and been very clearly unable to compete with the very best.

and, hell, he’s Belgian. ;-)

Is is really? I count 3 eventual GT winners in the last 20 Tour de l'Avenir winners. Looks like Cian has a 15% chance to win one.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Landa for sure. Next year is the year, you will see.

Shame that Fausto had a better case to be included last year than this. What a unlucky season (((

Still Lombardia is coming

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Unironically think Jay Vine would be a better option than half this list.

Doubt very much he'll come close let alone win one. He has the watts, but in the first week of the Vuelta he already took it slow just to be able to pounce on day 6, which he did convincingly. Then during his 2nd win the watts were a lot less convincing, but he was in the break most of the day, so all good. But then his form just took a dive and he god dropped by guys you don't want to get dropped by in case you want to pursue a GC career. It's only his 3rd season i think, but he turns 27 soon. I think the odds are against him to get consistent enough to fight for a GT win before his age catches up and before the new generation completely overtakes him.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Voted for:
Ayuso
Uijtdebroeks
Mas
Vlasov
Rodriguez
Ayuso and Uijtdebroeks are already so good so young, they will definitely win a GT. If Rodriguez didn’t crash in the Vuelta, he definitely would have more votes. All around rider, easily could win a GT. Vlasov is a tough case. Yes, he’s not the best GC rider, but can win if he puts it all together. Mas needs a week Vuelta field, which comes along once in a while, or a Giro. Mas will pounce, and win a GT.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Unironically think Jay Vine would be a better option than half this list.

I don't think I've seem Vine do a race where he didn't crash

 

[Big Doopie]

Is is really? I count 3 eventual GT winners in the last 20 Tour de l'Avenir winners. Looks like Cian has a 15% chance to win one.

i stand corrected. Thought it was more. Tx.

 

[Cookster15]

Avenir has been an amazing predictor of future GT winners throughout history, but particularly in recent times.

Does anyone have stats on this? I think Avenir is an indicator but plenty of exceptions (riders who didn’t excel at Avenir yet won a GT). One recent example is Jai Hindley.

 

[Big Doopie]

Does anyone have stats on this? I think Avenir is an indicator but plenty of exceptions (riders who didn’t excel at Avenir yet won a GT). One recent example is Jai Hindley.

yup. As I mentioned above I stand corrected. Maybe cuz u remember the big ones: Gimondi, Zoetemelk, LeMond, Fignon, Quintana, Pog, Bernal…

it will be interesting to see how Hindley fares. He was fantastic, but a huge lack of ITT that not only helps him but also kept bigger challengers away most likely.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Does anyone have stats on this? I think Avenir is an indicator but plenty of exceptions (riders who didn’t excel at Avenir yet won a GT). One recent example is Jai Hindley.

It's an indicator of potential. You don't have to win Avenir to become a GC rider/winner. Winning Avenir doesn't make you a GC rider/winner either.

There is a second parameter to take into account. The age of the riders compared to their rivals. Avenir is U23, that means you could have 18 year olds compete with 22 year olds. Riders like Johannessen and Foss were in their final year of U23 when they won it. Uijtdebroeks was a first year U23 and had already turned 19 earlier in the year (January). Arensman however, though he didn't win, was only 18 when he finished 2nd to Pogacar because he was born in December. So in case of Arensman, Uijtdebroeks, or even Van Wilder who finished 3rd as a 1st year U23, those results are a lot more meaningful than those of Foss or Johannessen who were 4th year U23.

But just looking at winners, other than Bernal, Pogacar and Quintana, you also have Gaudu, Lopez, Soler, Chaves, Barguil, Bakelants, Mollema.
Then you have guys who did not win, who got a good result (top 10), like Yates twins, Bardet, Gesink, Landa, Kelderman, Cattaneo, Wellens, Konrad, Formolo, Latour, Buchmann, Haig, Oomen, De Plus, Hart, Vervaeke, Henao, Ciccone, Hindley, Storer, Lambrecht (RIP), Almeida, Champoussin, Rodriguez...

 

[BigCoward]

Arensman is basically just hoping for Ineos buff. I don't know if Jumbo were in for him or not.

But anyway, different time, different king. I am very convinced the 2012 Tour was the only GT in the last 15 years Wiggins could have won despite winning it with 3 minutes.

Strongest TT rider in the world by far, 2nd best climber in the race, how many TdF against same opposition would he not have win? Assuming sky kept a leash on Froome.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

It's funny because most on the list are still very young (except Landa) and have shown so much potential that you under under normal circumstances would say that they all have a very good chance at winning a GT. But in the post-Bernal era, what used to be normal isn't normal anymore.

Take Rodriguez: 21 years old, 7th in his first GT. Take Almeida: 24 years old, 4th, 5th and 6th in GT's. 5 years ago, these results would have indicated an almost certain GT-winner but in this day and age, they're competing against the likes of Bernal, Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel. That leaves little room for others to win GT's, and the Tour looks almost impossible to win the next 10 years.

Of course we all know, that things never go the way you expect them to do in cycling, and who knows, perhaps someone on the list goes on to win the Tour next year.

Anyway, from the list, I don't really know enough about Uijtdebroeks to rate him, so I'll leave that to everyone else. Landa is out of the question and Lopez I have a really hard time seing winning a GT as well. Gaudu and Mas I think will always lack that little bit of something. Almeida seems to struggle holding his form for 3 weeks. Vlasov is on a similar level as almeida I think but he seems to have a bit of a higher ceiling in the high mountains and could win a GT. I don't think he's a favorite to do so, though.

That leaves Ayuso, Rodriguez and Arensman. Ayuso seems by far the most likely but Rodriguez and Arensman could very well win one as well. Arensman impressed me a lot in this years Vuelta and I'm excited to see what Ineos can do with him.

 

[RedheadDane]

Olavi Henttala!

Maybe not next year, though.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I have no clue how people can rate Arensman higher than C-Rod. Carlos was the 4-5th best rider in the race, in his first GT at 21 years old, while Arensman where nowhere to be seen early in the race and got some time in the break, while he admittedly was very strong later in the race, but hes older and has some GTs under his belt. I don't think its close between the two.

 

[gunara]

Marco Brenner.

He's not looking close enough at this moment. But I won't be too surprised if he somehow gets there, either gradually or with a bomb.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Olavi Henttalla!

Maybe not next year, though.

I think Olavi Henttala has a better shot.

 

[RedheadDane]

I think Olavi Henttala has a better shot.

Okay, yes. I was sure I'd seen the name spelled with two l's.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Okay, yes. I was sure I'd seen the name spelled with two l's.

Well that's because it's the right way to spell it. You did it with three

 

[RedheadDane]

Well that's because it's the right way to spell it. You did it with three

Henttala spelled with two l's, you dork!

 

[Pantani_lives]

I voted Ayuso and Uijtdebroeks. The first is obvious because of his age; the second is indeed too early to tell, but I'll take the gamble.

The problem for these young talents is that they'll have to compete with the GT winners of the past two years, who are mostly still young themselves and won't go away in the next five years. We're looking at a very strong new generation.

 

[tobydawq]

Landa for sure. Next year is the year, you will see.

Shame that Fausto had a better case to be included last year than this. What a unlucky season (((

Still Lombardia is coming

Like maybe being 42nd pick for the list last year and 68th this year?

 

[tobydawq]

It's an indicator of potential. You don't have to win Avenir to become a GC rider/winner. Winning Avenir doesn't make you a GC rider/winner either.

There is a second parameter to take into account. The age of the riders compared to their rivals. Avenir is U23, that means you could have 18 year olds compete with 22 year olds. Riders like Johannessen and Foss were in their final year of U23 when they won it. Uijtdebroeks was a first year U23 and had already turned 19 earlier in the year (January). Arensman however, though he didn't win, was only 18 when he finished 2nd to Pogacar because he was born in December. So in case of Arensman, Uijtdebroeks, or even Van Wilder who finished 3rd as a 1st year U23, those results are a lot more meaningful than those of Foss or Johannessen who were 4th year U23.

But just looking at winners, other than Bernal, Pogacar and Quintana, you also have Gaudu, Lopez, Soler, Chaves, Barguil, Bakelants, Mollema.
Then you have guys who did not win, who got a good result (top 10), like Yates twins, Bardet, Gesink, Landa, Kelderman, Cattaneo, Wellens, Konrad, Formolo, Latour, Buchmann, Haig, Oomen, De Plus, Hart, Vervaeke, Henao, Ciccone, Hindley, Storer, Lambrecht (RIP), Almeida, Champoussin, Rodriguez...

Lars Bak also didn't become a Grand Tour winner.

 

[Netserk]

Only one in last year's thread to raise his hand for Hindley:

I think that Mas is the most likely to win A gt, but that another rider on the list will win more than him. Who that is, is tough to guess. I hope Remco, simply because I think there's a massive what if about his bad crash last year if he doesn't eventually win a gt.

As for the Australians, I'd rate Hindley as a better chance than Haig, and maybe even O'Connor. People have short memories. Last year's Giro wasn't very popular, but surely Jai's ceiling is higher than Jack's.