Future GT Winner

[Jspear]

I wholeheartedly disagree. There is really not much difference between Pinot and Aru at the moment. And I even dare to rate Pinot a tad higher (at this precise moment)

At this precise moment? Aru just finished 5th behind the likes of AC and CF. What did Pinot do?

 

[JRTK73]

The 2015 Giro looks really open. I think Nibali is the only one who would maybe ride it of the "big 4".

In some ways winning a GT is really hard. You travel several thousand km's and go up big mountains for three weeks. Yet despite this Cobo and Horner have both recently won GT's. If luck goes your way then you can definitely win one. I just hope the French riders aren't too focused on Le Tour.

 

[SeriousSam]

Aru is a better climber than Pinot.

 

[Mountain Goat Cyclist]

Great poll idea!

I voted Aru, Majka and Rodriguez

Aru to win the Giro 2015, Rodriguez to win the Vuelta 2015, and Majka to win a GT in the years to come.

 

[JRTK73]

In 2012 44.8% of people thought Van Garderen would win a GT. Now that is only 8% and he is still only 26. Thibault Pinot also got 46% in that year and despite coming 3rd in the tour his support has almost halved. It's not easy to predict these.

 

[damian13ster]

In 2012 44.8% of people thought Van Garderen would win a GT. Now that is only 8% and he is still only 26. Thibault Pinot also got 46% in that year and despite coming 3rd in the tour his support has almost halved. It's not easy to predict these.

great point! It is always about last race. Nobody now remembers Pinot's performance because Aru's is fresher (although he still finished GC quite a bit behind Valverde and Rodriguez, not just AC and CF.....).

And I voted those two mentioned + Majka. The last one partially because of national pride, but I think it is very possible, especially since he actually attacks now after he has learned how to win, and I also share the feeling that he was 2nd/3rd (between him and Pinot) strongest climber in Tour. And I know he was riding himself in shape in first 2 weeks, but that was because he found out he will ride a race a week before it started for god's sake. Also, almost entire 3rd week he was in a breakaway or with GC guys dropping them like flies (except for Nibali of course). The only worry I have is that he might target Tour starting in 2016. He fell in love with this race (gradual climbs and weather)

 

[gunara]

Funny that the most realistic Spanish future GT winner is as young as Purito, with nobody in the 20s with real shot. No matter how silly his rivalry with Contador and Valverde lately, it might be a sight that Spain will miss for a long time. Anything can happen though, even Cobo won GT, but regularity is about to end for the first time after several decades.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

none of those will probably ever win a gt

 

[Jagartrott]

And I voted those two mentioned + Majka. The last one partially because of national pride, but I think it is very possible, especially since he actually attacks now after he has learned how to win, and I also share the feeling that he was 2nd/3rd (between him and Pinot) strongest climber in Tour. And I know he was riding himself in shape in first 2 weeks, but that was because he found out he will ride a race a week before it started for god's sake. Also, almost entire 3rd week he was in a breakaway or with GC guys dropping them like flies (except for Nibali of course). The only worry I have is that he might target Tour starting in 2016. He fell in love with this race (gradual climbs and weather)

But performing 3 weeks under pressure is something that you cannot compare to being a wildcard in a Tour where no-one really expects something of you. He was impressive in that final part of the Tour, but I think it's not really valid to extrapolate that.

 

[SeriousSam]

none of those will probably ever win a gt

You are saying that the probability at least one of them wins a GT is less than 50%? That you would be willing to back none of them winning at even odds?

 

[greenedge]

Surprised that Majka has more votes than Pinot. Uran I definetely think will win a GT and Talansky's Dauphinie performance was very impressive so i picked him, along with Aru.

And i'll also add Rolland- he impressed me a lot at this Giro and if he goes again next year I think he has a real chance- and Gesink, who I think can bounce back. These go along with the Kelderman picks everyone else has raised.

 

[Pentacycle]

You are saying that the probability at least one of them wins a GT is less than 50%? That you would be willing to back none of them winning at even odds?

Claims like Ryo's might be worth remembering in five years. Just like the one where he said Nibali wouldn't win another GT after his Vuelta victory.

 

[greenedge]

Pinot finished 3rd in a very reduced and not very high quality field, Im not taking anything away from his result it was really great and he deserved it.

Majka got sick at end of Giro, he was fighting for a podium up untill then. Majkas Giro form would have podiumed in the tour this year at the expence of pinot in my opinion.

But he dropped Nibali-even if it was very shortly.

 

[Red Rick]

none of those will probably ever win a gt

Did you forget how to read? There's a Colombian on that list

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Surprised that Majka has more votes than Pinot. Uran I definetely think will win a GT and Talansky's Dauphinie performance was very impressive so i picked him, along with Aru.

And i'll also add Rolland- he impressed me a lot at this Giro and if he goes again next year I think he has a real chance- and Gesink, who I think can bounce back. These go along with the Kelderman picks everyone else has raised.

That is because Majka has proven himself to be a winner. He has that instinct that Pinot is missing. He's also a more complete rider

 

[Jagartrott]

That is because Majka has proven himself to be a winner. He has that instinct that Pinot is missing. He's also a more complete rider

That's not a fair comparison as Majka wouldn't have gotten any leeway in the Tour had he been a GC threat like Pinot. Pinot won a TdF stage in 2012, when he was just 22 years old.

 

[Flamin]

That is because Majka has proven himself to be a winner. He has that instinct that Pinot is missing. He's also a more complete rider

Yeah, with the incredible amount of 4 professional wins all of them this year, his 4th year as a pro. Pinot was already winning races when nobody ever heard of Majka, despite being a year younger.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

You are saying that the probability at least one of them wins a GT is less than 50%? That you would be willing to back none of them winning at even odds?

That's not what he said. There is a difference between none of those will probably ever win a gt and probably none of those will ever win a gt.

His contention was that there is no-one on that list with a >50% chance of finishing their career with a GT title.

If he thought that all 9 of them were 49% likely, his comment would still be true but he would need odds of about 500/1 on none of them ever winning one.

 

[cineteq]

Claims like Ryo's might be worth remembering in five years. Just like the one where he said Nibali wouldn't win another GT after his Vuelta victory.

He's just a bookie.

That is because Majka has proven himself to be a winner. He has that instinct that Pinot is missing. He's also a more complete rider

Agree...I think Bardet has more chance of winning a GT, if anything.

 

[glassmoon]

I miss Vino option... He is only 41.

 

[Angliru]

But performing 3 weeks under pressure is something that you cannot compare to being a wildcard in a Tour where no-one really expects something of you. He was impressive in that final part of the Tour, but I think it's not really valid to extrapolate that.

I agree. To rate him among the best climbers when he rarely went head to head against the primary gc contenders isn't a fair assessment.

 

[David_Incognito_66]

Majka because he is on a team capable of miracles. Still can't make sense of his Tour performance. Without training and not wanting to ride it in the beginning he ended up being stronger than at the Giro where he had prepared so hard.

 

[Jspear]

*deleted*

Let me help you make some sense out of the Tour. He finished over two hours down on the GC at the Tour de France (he was 44th.) He rode himself into form in the earlier parts of the Tour. He would not have been able to do what he did if he had been riding for GC.

 

[David_Incognito_66]

Lol, have you ever raced seriously? If so you should know that you don't ride into the form in a race if you don't have a decent base to start with.

 

[Jspear]

Lol, have you ever raced seriously? If so you should know that you don't ride into the form in a race if you don't have a decent base to start with.

He had a base to start with. He said himself that he was going to take it "easy," gaining form, and then really hit it in the later mountains.