Future GT Winner

[Netserk]

Might be interesting if you add the year of birth and age ath the time they won it

I'll leave that up to you

 

[Red Rick]

I'm gonna be so mad if Aru goes to Sky, I want to see many years of Nibali/Aru combined carnage

 

[Red Rick]

I'll leave that up to you

Cmon, you know I'm the guy that's so lazy that when he starts a stage thread he just quotes a post from another thread

 

[Red Rick]

To get some perspective, here's a list of the most recent first-time GT winners:

Quintana - Giro '14 24, '90
Horner - Vuelta '13 41, '71 (lol)
Froome - Tour '13 28, '85
Wiggins - Tour '12 32, '80
Hesjedal - Giro '12 31, '80
Cobo - Vuelta '11 30, '81
Evans - Tour '11 34, '77
Nibali - Vuelta '10 25, '84
Valverde - Vuelta '09 29, '80
Sastre - Tour '08 33, '75
Menchov - Vuelta '07 29, '78
Contador - Tour '07 24, '82
Di Luca - Giro '07 31, '76
Vino - Vuelta '06 33, '73
Landis - Tour '06 30, '75
Basso - Giro '06 28, '77

So with time I think several of today's (young) contenders will take the final step and win one of the big ones.

So currently, 7 riders from the 80's have won GT's with a big gap between Froome and Quintana

 

[ILovecycling]

as for the age ,interesting is that only 3 riders were younger than 28 years of age

Nibali 25y
Quintana 24y
Contador 24y

it says something about future imo...

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Voted Majka and Aru. They are the two most talented young riders in the poll.
Cannot see Aru winning the Tour if the route is balanced, whereas Majka, thanks to his completeness, would have a greater shot at doing so.

That said, Aru not winning either the Giro or Vuelta at some point would be a huge surprise.

Also, as someone mentions, Kelderman needs a check-box in this poll

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Evan Huffman to win his first GT at 41 years old, after going back to the States and coming back at age 35 yea sold. You heard it here first.

 

[Carols]

Aru, Majka and Talanasky. The first two have shown enough to completely believe they will make the top step at some point.

Talanasky, well I'm American and he is the best hope. Tejay just isn't going to get the job done I fear.

Had I looked at the results prior to voting I would have given poor Purito a pity vote LOL!

 

[grizzlee]

Quintana - Giro '14 24, '90
Horner - Vuelta '13 41, '71 (LOL)
Froome - Tour '13 28, '85
Wiggins - Tour '12 32, '80
Hesjedal - Giro '12 31, '80
Cobo - Vuelta '11 30, '81
Evans - Tour '11 34, '77
Nibali - Vuelta '10 25, '84
Valverde - Vuelta '09 29, '80
Sastre - Tour '08 33, '75
Menchov - Vuelta '07 29, '78
Contador - Tour '07 24, '82
Di Luca - Giro '07 31, '76
Vino - Vuelta '06 33, '73
Landis - Tour '06 30, '75
Basso - Giro '06 28, '77


ahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Thats just fuc**ng brilliant, nearly fell off my chair when i read it, very simply done. take a bow my friend, take a bow.

 

[MBotero]

Aru and Uran.Aru because he is the best talent from the younger generation and Uran because finishing 2 times in second place show that you got the quality to make that final step in the future.
TVG is also an interesting option,but the fact that he's focused on TDF make his win harder to achieve given the stronger competition.

 

[Jspear]

I think Aru has the best chance at winning one soon. Hopefully he'll try bettering his tt'ing skills. But, I do think that these youngsters are going to have to wait a couple of years. The big "top 4" are on such a high level right now that if they enter the gt's next year and don't crash out, I think they are hard to beat right now.

 

[markene2]

Aru and Bardet

 

[Afrank]

Going with Aru, Pinot, and Uran. Aru and Pinot mostly because they're both such large talents, Uran because he should be able to bring home a Giro if the competition is right one year (ie no top tier GC like Nibs, Contador, Quintana, ect.)

Majka a big possible GT winner too, but I'd like to see if his consistency over 3 weeks improves. He was riding great in the final week of the Tour this year, but that doesn't say much about his consistency since he spent the first couple weeks in the autobus.

I'd add Barguil as a possible future winner too. 2 stages in his 1st GT and a top 10 in his 2nd. Not bad.

 

[PirazziAttacksVino]

Aru is a huge talent and will win the Giro and Vuelta several times in his career. WIth Tour it's debatable imo. He needs a route that suits him, with no more than 40-50 km of TT. Plus he needs to outclimb Quintana, which may be an impossible thing to do.

Bardet will never win anything imo. He is way to fragile as a time-trialist and not strong enough to drop everybody in the mountains.

Barguil-see Bardet.

Betancur (when he's at his best) may be able to win the Vuelta. The short uphill finishes suit him and he can limit the damages in the Vuelta ITT, which is _/\__. He may also win the Giro if the route suits him and Quintana doesn't show up. In the Tour he'll only get a podium in the best case.

Formolo may be a bet, but he is too young and hasn't taken part in a GT yet.

Kelderman will focus on the Tour for many years starting with 2015. He will never win the Giro and Vuelta, even if he decides to focus on one of them, imo. In the Tour he'll have a chance if there will be enough km of TT. But even if this happens, I don't consider him strong enough as a climber to limit the damages to Quintana.

Kwiatkowski will never become a good climber imo. Or not good enough to challenge for the win/podium.

Majka will imo win the Giro or Vuelta, because he will not focus all hi seasons on the Tour. Plus the big names will not always start the Giro, so he has his chances.

Peraud will never be the strongest climber, nor the strongest agains the clock in any GT he'll take part in.

Pinot can easily win the Giro and Vuelta in the future, but will mainly focus on the Tour, which I don't think he'll ever win, as long as Quintana and Aru stay on their bikes or show up for the race. However, I think that he will win the Vuelta in some season, when he doesn't get the best prep for the Tour or is forced to abandon.

Rodriguez is already past it, so no.

Talansky can win a GT if there are enough kms of TT, Quintana is not there and he is better than Kelderman and Uran on the climbs. However, my bet is that he'll never win one.

Uran can win any of the GTs and will win one or even more imo. He's atm the best GC contender against the clock if we take out Froome and maybe Van Garderen. But I still think he has to improve a bit on the climbs.

Tejay will never win anything. He'll always focus on the Tour, and as we've seen, he always has a bad day. Even if he'll take lots of time on the pure climbers, he'll somehow screw it up in the mountains.

Zubeldia to take the shortcut and win the Tour without being seen

So all in all, my bets are Aru, Betancur, Majka, Pinot and Uran. But Betancur, Majka and Pinot with some ifs.

 

[HappyLoser]

Aru, Bardet and Majka.

Aru showed he's a supreme climber. He's already have 3rd place in Giro. Now he adds 2 stage wins and 5th place in Vuelta. He needs to focus on TT skills and compete against weak field, not against AC & CF like this time.

Bardet is another man to watch. He's main problem is focusing on TdF, which has the strongest field of condenders.

I don't really know how strong Majka can become. He had some mental issues with winning. He launched during TdF, shall see how deep he can dig.

Kwiatkowski will never become a good climber imo. Or not good enough to challenge for the win/podium.

Unless he joins SKY...

 

[Afrank]

Zubeldia to take the shortcut and win the Tour without being seen

It will be the greatest ninja-ing of all time!

 

[yespatterns]

I only voted for Aru since I didnt take the time to read the first post. But Majka seems like a reasonable bet, with Kelderman ify but possible. Can't wait to see how the young talent will progress over the next year.

 

[doperhopper]

Aru ftw, but his "future" can be quite distant with so many active contenders (at least Contador/Froome/Quintana/Nibali). Should go for Giro and hope no big name shows up (or crashes out), Vuelta will always get someone big who had bad luck during the Tour (or even good luck).

 

[hfer07]

Aru to me is a safety bet among the names listed. He's already superb at 24 y.o. with so much room to develop ever further. I would love T Pinout to win a GT, but he has to Improve A LOT to get there...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Aru to me is a safety bet among the names listed. He's already superb at 24 y.o. with so much room to develop ever further. I would love T Pinout to win a GT, but he has to Improve A LOT to get there...

I wholeheartedly disagree. There is really not much difference between Pinot and Aru at the moment. And I even dare to rate Pinot a tad higher (at this precise moment)

 

[Pantani_lives]

I wholeheartedly disagree. There is really not much difference between Pinot and Aru at the moment. And I even dare to rate Pinot a tad higher (at this precise moment)

Aru is a more explosive climber, he has already beaten the big names on MTFs. Pinot relies more on his consitency, but he also still needs to improve his time trial.

 

[Samson777]

Aru of course. And then I went for Uran as well. Just cause I guess he will continue to focus on giro and vuelta, and he should have a chance to get a win here. Maybe allready the giro next year. Of course just speculation; But if Quintana, Froome, Nibali( + Aru maybe), and Contador focus mainly on the Tour. I don't see why Uran should not have a serious chance winning the giro next season.

 

[hfer07]

Aru of course. And then I went for Uran as well. Just cause I guess he will continue to focus on giro and vuelta, and he should have a chance to get a win here. Maybe allready the giro next year. Of course just speculation; But if Quintana, Froome, Nibali( + Aru maybe), and Contador focus mainly on the Tour. I don't see why Uran should not have a serious chance winning the giro next season.

what troubles me lately about Rigo, is his climbing skills fading- perhaps as a result of his enormous improvement on ITT'ing which is superb at the moment, but notice he gets dropped like a stone on crucial MTF stages, where he was able to hold his ground a few years past....

we'll see

 

[Cance > TheRest]

what troubles me lately about Rigo, is his climbing skills fading- perhaps as a result of his enormous improvement on ITT'ing which is superb at the moment, but notice he gets dropped like a stone on crucial MTF stages, where he was able to hold his ground a few years past....

we'll see

He was 2nd in the Giro, riding that way. Also, I really don't think he has faded that much in the mountains.
The only time I've ever thought of Uran as a top 5 climber, was back in last year's Giro when he won at Altopiano del Montasio. Other than that he has always been just behind the best climbers, a trend that seems to have continued in 2014. If anything, I'd say one of his best climbing performances came this year on Zoncolan, where he dropped both Majka and Aru, eventually finishing together with Quintana.

 

[Jspear]

what troubles me lately about Rigo, is his climbing skills fading- perhaps as a result of his enormous improvement on ITT'ing which is superb at the moment, but notice he gets dropped like a stone on crucial MTF stages, where he was able to hold his ground a few years past....

we'll see

I also don't think his climbing has faded really. I think he is right under the "best" in climbing. I think what he has shown over the last 3 years though, is that he can't handle two gt's in one year. He has been top 10 in the last 3 Giro's and then go one to do nothing in the Vuelta. I think he will be able to grab a gt win soon enough, but unlike Aru he won't be able to do two gt's in one year.