Future GT Winner

[Red Rick]

Landa, Majka and Dumoulin. Pinot might have a shot in the Giro or Vuelta, but he's French and unlikely to target any of them.

I like how Gesink has no votes whatsoever. I hope he goes to the Giro tries to maybe compete for a top 4/5 or even the podium than getting 6th-10th in the Tour and being way too happy about it

 

[del1962]

Pinot if he targetted Giro or Vuelta could win one as he is at least as good as if not better than Aru, but he won't as the Tour is what matters to him and his team

 

[hrotha]

Honestly I don't see any of these winning a GT, except perhaps Landa if he keeps his 2015 form.

 

[Arredondo]

Landa will win a GT for sure.

All the others: no.

 

[Billie]

Landa and Dumoulin are the only to off the list that have the talent to win one. Landa would need one with very little TT kilometres while Dumoulin would need one with multiple long timetrials like in the early 200's.

Pinot imo has the skills but he's much too fragile mentally.

Amador with no votes doesn't surprise me. I like the guy but don't think he'll ever top 10 another GT again.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I like how Gesink has no votes whatsoever. I hope he goes to the Giro tries to maybe compete for a top 4/5 or even the podium than getting 6th-10th in the Tour and being way too happy about it

No matter how you slice it, 6th in the Tour is way bigger than a 4th in the Giro. Its A LOT tougher (in a field like Tour 2015, at least) and the media exposure and everything about is just a lot greater than in the Giro. Looks who he finished behind: Froome, Quintana, Valv, Nibali, Contador.. say what. Thats huge and he should be supremely proud of that effort, especially considering his last 3-4 years which havent been great.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't think any of these riders is as close as all the previous winners of this poll (Aru, Quintana, Froome).

Landa needs a lot of things to go his way to win a GT (no sterrato/cobbles, no windy stages, health and mental stability, a good team) but it's definately possible. I'd give him 50%.

Dumoulin is a bit hard to predict. I voted for him but I'm not too sure. 30%.

I also voted for Pinot although he's shown on multiple occasions he doesn't have the mental strength it takes to win a GT. But he could do it, especially if he stops focusing on the tour only. Vuelta is his best option. 20%.

All of the others are below that percentage. Majka is probably the next in line, but he's way too passive in the mountains to win a GT (considering he's not that good of a TTer). I love Bobby G but I don't think he still has a shot. Chaves will probably podium a Vuelta in some years, don't think he can win it. Bardet is a wonderful rider but unconvincing in the high mountains, better focus on classics and one week races.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I voted Van Garderen, Landa and Majka.

Van Garderen had a lot of bad luck this year. If he hadn't crashed out of the Vuelta he might have won with a good ITT. I think he still has the potential.

Landa came out of the blue this year. Is it confirmed that he's going to Team Sky next year? If so he would have to work for Froome in the Tour, and maybe ride for himself in the Vuelta. He will only turn 26 in December, so I give him a chance in the long term.

Majka is also still young (26), so he might win the Vuelta one year. Tour seems a bit optimistic if he can only follow the other climbers and doesn't have such a good time trial.

Dumoulin showed tremendous fighting spirit in the Vuelta, but his climbing skills would have to improve a lot. His strategy of taking time in the time trial and limiting the damage in the mountains remind me of Olano, who won the Vuelta once and finished fourth in the Tour.

For Purito I predicted many years ago that he would never win a GT because of his weak time trialing skills. I have to admit he came closer than I expected. He finished five times on the podium, eight times in the top 4, eleven times in the top 7. I'm afraid it's too late for him. I still regret that he didn't win the world title in 2013 either.

 

[robin440]

Lennart Kämna + Silvio Herklotz!!!!!!!!!!

 

[SeriousSam]

That we all seem to agree on Landa is remarkable given that his time trialling is so abject.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

Lennart Kämna + Silvio Herklotz!!!!!!!!!!

The career of Herklotz is over before it even started.

 

[Billie]

Re:

That we all seem to agree on Landa is remarkable given that his time trialling is so abject.

Timetrialing has become less and less important in GT's these last years.

I also highly doubt that Landa has spent much time training and improving his positioning on a TT bike so he should have some progression left in that discipline.

 

[Nick C.]

I voted for Majka. I considered Amador and Chaves, but passed. Landa is going to Sky which means Froome train duties trump all else. According to some reports TJVG has already won the fourth grand tour and second biggest after the TDF. Dumoulin I am not sold on.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

I voted for Majka. I considered Amador and Chaves, but passed. Landa is going to Sky which means Froome train duties trump all else. According to some reports TJVG has already won the fourth grand tour and second biggest after the TDF. Dumoulin I am not sold on.

He never won Suisse. Cali is rather the 18th biggest stage race or something like that.

 

[staubsauger]

Landa is certainly gonna win a Giro or Vuelta in the fashion of Pantani!

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

That we all seem to agree on Landa is remarkable given that his time trialling is so abject.

Well, take next year's Giro for example. Who's gonna take minutes out of Landa in a 11km prologue and a hillty TT?

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

That we all seem to agree on Landa is remarkable given that his time trialling is so abject.

Well, take next year's Giro for example. Who's gonna take minutes out of Landa in a 11km prologue and a hillty TT?

Nibali?

 

[Simurgh]

Voted Majka, Landa and Pinot.

Majka have a good shot at winning a Giro or Vuelta if he targets them, but I have some doubts that he will reach the Big 4 in terms of quality.

About Landa I think that he can reach Big 4 level in terms of climbing (wasn't far from it in the Giro), but his time trialing is something he MUST improve, if he wants to win the Tour.
As for Thibaut, he's a second tier rider (below tier 1, the big 4) as Aru and Landa, so a Vuelta or Giro (he likes the cold) wouldn't be out of reach because of lack of talent, but the fact that he is French, and therefore must target the Tour, which I doubt that he'll ever win, unless favourites crash out and he overcomes his "speed-fobia".

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Pinot if he targetted Giro or Vuelta could win one as he is at least as good as if not better than Aru, but he won't as the Tour is what matters to him and his team

+1 here. FDJ needs to let him race Giro/TdF (Giro/Vuelta is not gonna happen): Giro for the win, Tour for the sponsors with a stage win as the target. Colder spring weather, long steep climbs, and hopefully the flat ITT later in the race would suit his Giro dreams. As good if not better than Aru, I agree.

I know I'm biased . I voted Pinot. Of all the others, Landa is a good candidate, but in the end, it all depends on who else shows up. Dawg, Bertie, Quintana or a top-form Nibbles are way better.

 

[Nick C.]

Re: Re:

I voted for Majka. I considered Amador and Chaves, but passed. Landa is going to Sky which means Froome train duties trump all else. According to some reports TJVG has already won the fourth grand tour and second biggest after the TDF. Dumoulin I am not sold on.

He never won Suisse. Cali is rather the 18th biggest stage race or something like that.

hahaha I guess it depends on what propaganda source you are reading.

 

[Nirvana]

Landa could be a serious option for next year Giro but i think also Purito (in his last attempt?), the only that could manage to beat them is Nibali (assuming that Froome and Quintana won't ride the Giro).
At the Tour i think there is no space for a new name with Quintana and Frome.
More uncertainty for the Vuelta but i don't know who could ride.
If not next year Dumoulin will have a bright future.

 

[dpm1991]

Interesting thread. I'll risk and write that no one of the guys in poll will win a GT. My opinion will propably bust in at last couple of years but if such scenario would happen, then i can allways requote this post all over the Internet and be like Nostradamus.

 

[gerundium]

I got Landa, Majka, Dumoulin, Van Garderen.

I think out of these van Garderen is the Biggest gamble. the other three are still young and are still on an upwards curve, while van Garderen is already more mature. i think he will just manage to get it right once if he is willing to target Vuelta / Giro mostly.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Last year, I voted Aru because I felt certain he would win the Giro once in his career so I was right for the wrong reason. This year, I voted Landa, Dumoulin, and Pinot. The first two because they have the potential to be head and shoulders above their competition in their respective disciplines. For Tom, eventually one of GTs will feature 100+ KMs of TT, right?. Landa should bag a Vuelta in his career, which means he will win the Giro '16. Pinot is the toughest to see a clear path to victory as others have noted based on his TdF focus, but IMO he is too talented to think that his palmares won't include a GT.

Majka seems like a rider who is destined IMO to have more podiums than victories. I almost voted Gesink just to give him a sympathy vote. If JRod would skip the Giro and TdF next year, I would make him the favorite for the Vuelta, but barring that, I think he has missed his chance. I would like to see TJ succeed, but I doubt he even manages a podium in a GT at this point.

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted for TJ, Majka and Bardet.
TJ will hopefully try to focus on the giro or the vuleta in the next few years, because I don't think he will ever have a chance against Froome, Quinana, Nibali,... in the tour. Majka seems to be a good guess, because he definitely has the climbing abilities to win a rather bad manned giro. Bardet was just a random guess and represents Bardet and Pinot, because I hope that one day they will notice that they should try to win a giro, because just like majka, they definitely have the potential.
Landa is probably one of the top 5 climbers in the world, but I just have the feeling that his TT abilities might kill his chances for some possible gt victories in the future (although now that I think about it more closely, even I think he is more likely than Pinot and Bardet together)
Dumoulin seems to be a one trick pony to me. gt's have less and less TT kilometers so you cannot even say that in future gt's which he will ride as a leader, his situation will be better than in this years vuelta. Moreover he was very lucky that the high mountain stages weren't raced that hard. He would have lost way more time in this years giro.