theyoungest said:
He had been in the breakaway in multiple stages (one of which was the cobbled stage, where he was the strongest in the break and was caught 5 k from the finish). And yet he was still very strong on Tourmalet, maybe the strongest he'd been in all of the Tour, which speaks volumes about his recovery.
This year he sucked pretty much everywhere except in Pais Vasco, but I'm sure he has reasons for that. If he's at his Tour 2010 best, who other than maybe Basso or Scarponi is clearly stronger than him?
I'd agree if this was about the Tour with a weak field, but it's not. The (2012) Giro is a different beast.
Big assumption, though. Other than that 2010 Tour, he has no GT record to speak of.
If he's at his Tour 2010 best, who other than maybe Basso or Scarponi is clearly stronger than him?
Rujano, obviously. The route suits him better than last year's edition. Save for the high mountain stages, it's doable. Perfect for him.
Cunego for sure. Has really focused on his climbing skills and it sure paid off. The Giro may suit him better than the Tour, so yeah. He was much more consistent as a climber in 2011 than Hesjedal in 2010.
Rodriguez; didn't lose much time to Hesjedal at the 2010 Tour despite a long time trial and a cobbles stage. Was clearly the better overall climber in that Tour, between the two of them. If you think Rodriguez is too inconsistent, then what about Hesjedal? Their GT records speak for themselves.
Edit: replace Cunego with Kreuziger
(You can add Nibali to that list if what jens_attacks says is true. The last time he was a domestique for Basso he came in 3rd.)
The rest depends on who is selected.