I think the teams pursuit is a two horse race between GB and Aus at Worlds, I have written off Denmark and NZ, for reasons I will detail.
GB will sport a first 4 of Thomas, Clancy, Burke and Swift. Tennant will probably be the 5th man. I don't think Kennaugh gets that spot.
Aus first 4 will be Bobridge, Dennis, Cam Meyer, Howard. Trav Meyer is the 5th man. Now if they want Howard to focus on the omnium, and Cam Meyer on the points, Michael Hepburn might come into that squad, and perhaps Luke Durbridge.
NZ will plateau, cos their engines are seeking road careers. Bewley did not make the team last year, not in with the coach, he won't be back. Sergent will be representing, but looking to lock down a 2011 spot on Radioshack, he won't bring sub 4'15" form. So the team will be Sergent, Ryan, Gough, and probably Latham. With Archbold and Christie rounding out a squad.
The Danes have plateaued in my opinion. Rasmussen said they could not do what the GB team were doing in Beijing, they have exhausted their improvement potential. Michael Mørkøv and Alex Rasmussen are on Saxo and will want to solidify their road contracts or back to the moribund 6 days for them. Casper Jorgensen and Jens Erik Madsen are young veterans and their potential ceiling is lower.
In Melbourne World Cup, Bobridge, Dennis, Hepburn, Durbridge went 3'58". In Manchester World Cup, Thomas, Clancy, Swift, Burke qualified in 3'56" and brought Andy Tennant in for Swift for the final, and they went 3'55". Bringing in the A team, but no retired Manning and no Wigans, makes advantage Aus imo.
Hypothetically, give Hincapie, Farrar, and Phinney the same track skills and souplesse as the GB military drilled squad, I reckon they win as a threesome. And Hincapie and Farrar came from the track too, and Phinney was only on the track for 18 months before Beijing, so those track skills are not beyond acquisition. Bartko, Ciolek, Martin, and Greipel could match them tho. Martin was a pursuiter and teams pursuiter in the jnrs, and Bartko had manifest quality, went 4'18" in Sydney with the concurrent technology and aero coefficient, as a 25yo.
Aus would be better if they got Michael Matthews on the track. That kid has skills.
Track is still weak in depth and talent, no matter how much Brailsford/Sutton and the fanbois like Dimspace will tell you. If they still had the GDR, they would be putting the GB team to the sword.
I do think the GB team will be tough to beat in London in the teams, because they are better drilled. The new generation of Aus has far more talent on the track, but in the Teams, it is an advantage to only have 4 or 5 key riders, versus 7 or 8 in the hat, because the 4 or 5 will get the perfect drilling and understanding of the team, 18 months out. With more talent, trying to get selection right, and then create the team, will be more complicated. Isle of Man could put their own team in, with brothers Kennaugh, Bellis (wishing a fast recovery and rehab) and Cav (not a great teams pursuiter).
The u19 Russian team went 4'01" I think for the WR in Moscow last year, the Ruskies have about 20 riders who could take a team sub 4'00", but they are like the Aus program, too many riders, not enough spots in sports institute, to handle them.
On that thesis, see Heiko Salzwedal, and how he took Mørkøv, Rasmussen, Jorgensen and Madsen from around 4'06" to 3'56" just by great planning, strategy, and skills acquisition, over 2 years out from Beijing. No surprise he jumped ship to the GB program. Coach par excellence. Good talent, but great planning and coaching, and they took it to the GB team. Don't think any of those Danes had any IP form of note, no sub 4'20" times because they were focusing on Beijing Teams. In 2006, Rasmussen went 4'3(0's) in the LA World Cup, and I think he was THE engine in the Teams. Albeit, fine difference between the 4.
If there is no IP in London, this will have great focus by all teams with track endurance depth. Should be exciting. A team could break 3'50".
GB will sport a first 4 of Thomas, Clancy, Burke and Swift. Tennant will probably be the 5th man. I don't think Kennaugh gets that spot.
Aus first 4 will be Bobridge, Dennis, Cam Meyer, Howard. Trav Meyer is the 5th man. Now if they want Howard to focus on the omnium, and Cam Meyer on the points, Michael Hepburn might come into that squad, and perhaps Luke Durbridge.
NZ will plateau, cos their engines are seeking road careers. Bewley did not make the team last year, not in with the coach, he won't be back. Sergent will be representing, but looking to lock down a 2011 spot on Radioshack, he won't bring sub 4'15" form. So the team will be Sergent, Ryan, Gough, and probably Latham. With Archbold and Christie rounding out a squad.
The Danes have plateaued in my opinion. Rasmussen said they could not do what the GB team were doing in Beijing, they have exhausted their improvement potential. Michael Mørkøv and Alex Rasmussen are on Saxo and will want to solidify their road contracts or back to the moribund 6 days for them. Casper Jorgensen and Jens Erik Madsen are young veterans and their potential ceiling is lower.
In Melbourne World Cup, Bobridge, Dennis, Hepburn, Durbridge went 3'58". In Manchester World Cup, Thomas, Clancy, Swift, Burke qualified in 3'56" and brought Andy Tennant in for Swift for the final, and they went 3'55". Bringing in the A team, but no retired Manning and no Wigans, makes advantage Aus imo.
Hypothetically, give Hincapie, Farrar, and Phinney the same track skills and souplesse as the GB military drilled squad, I reckon they win as a threesome. And Hincapie and Farrar came from the track too, and Phinney was only on the track for 18 months before Beijing, so those track skills are not beyond acquisition. Bartko, Ciolek, Martin, and Greipel could match them tho. Martin was a pursuiter and teams pursuiter in the jnrs, and Bartko had manifest quality, went 4'18" in Sydney with the concurrent technology and aero coefficient, as a 25yo.
Aus would be better if they got Michael Matthews on the track. That kid has skills.
Track is still weak in depth and talent, no matter how much Brailsford/Sutton and the fanbois like Dimspace will tell you. If they still had the GDR, they would be putting the GB team to the sword.
I do think the GB team will be tough to beat in London in the teams, because they are better drilled. The new generation of Aus has far more talent on the track, but in the Teams, it is an advantage to only have 4 or 5 key riders, versus 7 or 8 in the hat, because the 4 or 5 will get the perfect drilling and understanding of the team, 18 months out. With more talent, trying to get selection right, and then create the team, will be more complicated. Isle of Man could put their own team in, with brothers Kennaugh, Bellis (wishing a fast recovery and rehab) and Cav (not a great teams pursuiter).
The u19 Russian team went 4'01" I think for the WR in Moscow last year, the Ruskies have about 20 riders who could take a team sub 4'00", but they are like the Aus program, too many riders, not enough spots in sports institute, to handle them.
On that thesis, see Heiko Salzwedal, and how he took Mørkøv, Rasmussen, Jorgensen and Madsen from around 4'06" to 3'56" just by great planning, strategy, and skills acquisition, over 2 years out from Beijing. No surprise he jumped ship to the GB program. Coach par excellence. Good talent, but great planning and coaching, and they took it to the GB team. Don't think any of those Danes had any IP form of note, no sub 4'20" times because they were focusing on Beijing Teams. In 2006, Rasmussen went 4'3(0's) in the LA World Cup, and I think he was THE engine in the Teams. Albeit, fine difference between the 4.
If there is no IP in London, this will have great focus by all teams with track endurance depth. Should be exciting. A team could break 3'50".
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