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GB v Aus in teams pursuit at Copenhagen Worlds

Mar 13, 2009
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I think the teams pursuit is a two horse race between GB and Aus at Worlds, I have written off Denmark and NZ, for reasons I will detail.

GB will sport a first 4 of Thomas, Clancy, Burke and Swift. Tennant will probably be the 5th man. I don't think Kennaugh gets that spot.

Aus first 4 will be Bobridge, Dennis, Cam Meyer, Howard. Trav Meyer is the 5th man. Now if they want Howard to focus on the omnium, and Cam Meyer on the points, Michael Hepburn might come into that squad, and perhaps Luke Durbridge.

NZ will plateau, cos their engines are seeking road careers. Bewley did not make the team last year, not in with the coach, he won't be back. Sergent will be representing, but looking to lock down a 2011 spot on Radioshack, he won't bring sub 4'15" form. So the team will be Sergent, Ryan, Gough, and probably Latham. With Archbold and Christie rounding out a squad.

The Danes have plateaued in my opinion. Rasmussen said they could not do what the GB team were doing in Beijing, they have exhausted their improvement potential. Michael Mørkøv and Alex Rasmussen are on Saxo and will want to solidify their road contracts or back to the moribund 6 days for them. Casper Jorgensen and Jens Erik Madsen are young veterans and their potential ceiling is lower.

In Melbourne World Cup, Bobridge, Dennis, Hepburn, Durbridge went 3'58". In Manchester World Cup, Thomas, Clancy, Swift, Burke qualified in 3'56" and brought Andy Tennant in for Swift for the final, and they went 3'55". Bringing in the A team, but no retired Manning and no Wigans, makes advantage Aus imo.

Hypothetically, give Hincapie, Farrar, and Phinney the same track skills and souplesse as the GB military drilled squad, I reckon they win as a threesome. And Hincapie and Farrar came from the track too, and Phinney was only on the track for 18 months before Beijing, so those track skills are not beyond acquisition. Bartko, Ciolek, Martin, and Greipel could match them tho. Martin was a pursuiter and teams pursuiter in the jnrs, and Bartko had manifest quality, went 4'18" in Sydney with the concurrent technology and aero coefficient, as a 25yo.

Aus would be better if they got Michael Matthews on the track. That kid has skills.

Track is still weak in depth and talent, no matter how much Brailsford/Sutton and the fanbois like Dimspace will tell you. If they still had the GDR, they would be putting the GB team to the sword.

I do think the GB team will be tough to beat in London in the teams, because they are better drilled. The new generation of Aus has far more talent on the track, but in the Teams, it is an advantage to only have 4 or 5 key riders, versus 7 or 8 in the hat, because the 4 or 5 will get the perfect drilling and understanding of the team, 18 months out. With more talent, trying to get selection right, and then create the team, will be more complicated. Isle of Man could put their own team in, with brothers Kennaugh, Bellis (wishing a fast recovery and rehab) and Cav (not a great teams pursuiter).

The u19 Russian team went 4'01" I think for the WR in Moscow last year, the Ruskies have about 20 riders who could take a team sub 4'00", but they are like the Aus program, too many riders, not enough spots in sports institute, to handle them.

On that thesis, see Heiko Salzwedal, and how he took Mørkøv, Rasmussen, Jorgensen and Madsen from around 4'06" to 3'56" just by great planning, strategy, and skills acquisition, over 2 years out from Beijing. No surprise he jumped ship to the GB program. Coach par excellence. Good talent, but great planning and coaching, and they took it to the GB team. Don't think any of those Danes had any IP form of note, no sub 4'20" times because they were focusing on Beijing Teams. In 2006, Rasmussen went 4'3(0's) in the LA World Cup, and I think he was THE engine in the Teams. Albeit, fine difference between the 4.

If there is no IP in London, this will have great focus by all teams with track endurance depth. Should be exciting. A team could break 3'50".
 
Mar 13, 2009
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blackcat said:
Hypothetically, give Hincapie, Farrar, and Phinney the same track skills and souplesse as the GB military drilled squad, I reckon they win as a threesome. And Hincapie and Farrar came from the track too, and Phinney was only on the track for 18 months before Beijing, so those track skills are not beyond acquisition. Bartko, Ciolek, Martin, and Greipel could match them tho. Martin was a pursuiter and teams pursuiter in the jnrs, and Bartko had manifest quality, went 4'18" in Sydney with the concurrent technology and aero coefficient, as a 25yo.

http://www.cycling.org.au/?Page=36360
It's the first time since 1999 that South Australia has claimed the crown and it comes in the wake of a stunning performance by the state's men in the pursuit events contested so far this week. On day one Jack Bobridge set the fastest time ever under the current international bike regulations for the 4km individual pursuit with Dennis not far off his time in the qualifying round. In the same session Parker set a World Record for the U19 men's 3km pursuit. The fourth member of the team, Glasspool, was the 2009 U19 Australian kilometre champion and is a first year senior.

Realising Glasspool would be unable to match the pace of his pursuit team mates over the full distance South Australian coach Tim Dekker opted for an unusual pursuit strategy. Dennis started the team and rode one and a quarter laps on the front then swung up for Glasspool who buried himself for three and a quarter laps before he pulled out all together. That combined effort gave the team a first kilometre of 1min04sec, two seconds quicker than their qualifying mark. That left Bobridge, Dennis and Parker to bring it home and they posted sub-minute kilometres all the way to the finish line.

The tactic also put a lot of pressure on their rivals who were almost a second down after one kilometre. By the halfway mark the Western Australians were close to three seconds slower and they didn't come back from there. Their final time of 4min03.370sec was also under the previous Championships record they set last year but well off the pace of the winners.

"It is a different tactic and you haven't seen that one exposed yet in the teams pursuit at this level," said a jubilant Bobridge after the race. "It was a bit awkward to start off with at trials last week, but we got it together tonight and all four of us, it is a team effort.
 
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blackcat said:
GB will sport a first 4 of Thomas, Clancy, Burke and Swift. Tennant will probably be the 5th man. I don't think Kennaugh gets that spot.
In Melbourne World Cup, Bobridge, Dennis, Hepburn, Durbridge went 3'59". In Manchester World Cup, Thomas, Clancy, Swift, Burke qualified in 3'56" and brought Andy Tennant in for Swift for the final, and they went 3'55". Bringing in the A team, but no retired Manning and no Wigans, makes advantage Aus imo.

im not sure how a 4second advantage is going to be turned around and give australia the advantage??

GB clearly have the edge, (and i think kennaugh may well get the spot over tennant), and a mix of thomas, swift, and kennaugh makes good organisation sense for training.

who are manning and wigans?
 
Mar 13, 2009
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dimspace said:
im not sure how a 4second advantage is going to be turned around and give australia the advantage??

GB clearly have the edge, (and i think kennaugh may well get the spot over tennant), and a mix of thomas, swift, and kennaugh makes good organisation sense for training.

who are manning and wigans?
no, you dont understand. Hepburn and Durbridge are still 18 years old.

In to that 3'59" team come the worlds fastest in the non-illegal position, Bobridge, plus Leigh Howard.

You dont get 5 seconds from those two. You will get about 7 seconds improvement.

So Dim, please dont question me, when you get the fundamental inputs incorrect, and do not know how I am making my selections. Hepburn and Durbridge are 4'20+ riders. + by a few seconds. Howard can be the equivalent pursuiter that Bobridge is imo. He was a better pursuiter as a jnr that Bobridge was.

The Manning and Wigans thing, that was a joke by you right? Paul Manning, Bradley Garmin Wigans.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Interesting claims off the back of a post-Olympic squad taper for the GB. Perhaps some research into just how the GB team have won all of their medals might be in order?

Nice play on the Man U joke. Well done.....
 
Mar 13, 2009
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LugHugger said:
Interesting claims off the back of a post-Olympic squad taper for the GB. Perhaps some research into just how the GB team have won all of their medals might be in order?

Nice play on the Man U joke. Well done.....

the Australians have far more talent from 17/18/19/20/21/22 on the track.

But the GB have FAR FAR more talent, off the track, the planning, strategy, and execution phase. I REALLY rate Brailford, brings an MBA type thinking an analysis to the program.

But, if you think about 2008, if the Aus team had Renshaw, Mcgee, Bobridge, and Howard (he should have been brought into the teams pursuit squad), those 4, given the same training and build up, that Manning, Thomas, Clancy, and Wigans got, I think the Aus guys would have taken them. The Aus riders had a marginal advantage for talent.

The UK guys had a mammoth advantage in their coaching and set-up. And it was not resource based, the talent was all in the culture and the strategic nous that Brailsford brought to bear.
 
Dec 30, 2009
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Blackcat, agree that GB and Aus will fight for Gold, however I do not think at the 2010 Worlds either GB or Aust have any advantage over each other. GB have a great program with great talent, so does Aust. Should make it an interesting battle.

Howard will only do the Omnium imo.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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LugHugger said:
Interesting claims off the back of a post-Olympic squad taper for the GB. Perhaps some research into just how the GB team have won all of their medals might be in order?

Nice play on the Man U joke. Well done.....
one more thing. Swift does not have the Teams pursuit ability of all the Aus riders, and Andy Tennant definitely does not. They lose a massive piece with no Wigans and Manning.

And they still went 3'55" or whatever it was in Manchester. The Aus team will threaten the WR if they bring Howard and Cam Meyer at 100%. Problem is, Cam Meyer is their #1 points race man, and it is not completely correlated to the teams pursuit training and build up. He cant be 100% for the teams. And Howard might have to be the #1 guy for the omnium. Again, a compromise.

The Aus coaches missed out in Beijing. They obviously did not have access to Mcgee, cos he was on big money, well, not in 2008 at Saxo, but previously on the road. But they should have looked at Howard. The mail was that Bobridge was the engine in Beijing. And Howard was a better pursuiter in the jnrs. They wanted Howard and OShea as their madison pair, and this again, is a compromise. At this age. When they are 26 or so, like Wigans, you can handle both. But getting to best Teams potential, Howard had to focus on it.

But, GB was better, deserved their golds. It would be a much better event with a full strength Germany and USA tho.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Dundee said:
Blackcat, agree that GB and Aus will fight for Gold, however I do not think at the 2010 Worlds either GB or Aust have any advantage over each other. GB have a great program with great talent, so does Aust. Should make it an interesting battle.

Howard will only do the Omnium imo.
I dont think Howard or Cam Meyer will do the Teams pursuit either. It is all a compromise. And they look towards a potential 2012, if the madison, points, and IP stay in, and the omnium does not come in. Even if the omnium comes in, Howard switches from madison to omnium and OShea left out.

But the best teams, would be, atm, for 2010 Copenhagen, Howard, Bobridge, Cam Meyer, and Dennis. But it wont be that team. But, Hepburn must be a lock for 2012, and likely Parker comes in too, he would be 20. Bobridge was 19 in Beijing. Markov was only 17 in Atlanta as part of the Ruskies teams pursuit.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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dimspace said:
im not sure how a 4second advantage is going to be turned around and give australia the advantage??

GB clearly have the edge, (and i think kennaugh may well get the spot over tennant), and a mix of thomas, swift, and kennaugh makes good organisation sense for training.

who are manning and wigans?

They (brits) know we're (Aussies) coming!!!!
 
Mar 13, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
They (brits) know we're (Aussies) coming!!!!

are you a national track representative, or a coach in the Australian team? I take it from your name you are Australian correct? Nice vicarious play on "We" nonetheless. AusCycle to Dimspace GB.
 
Brailsford has a new toy to play with and I don't think he'l be letting his Sky boys play team pursuits this year, Jason Quealley might be stepping up to the team pursuit though.

Aus have plenty of talent coming up and have a point to prove after recent defeats.
 
Jul 11, 2009
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Personaly I dont rate track at all.... I think it much better to turn right. which is why Im off to the pub instead of the track tonight.

Anyway, you guys might be interested in this write up from the South Aussie team at Nationals on their 4.00 time http://www.sa.cycling.org.au/?Page=36360 keep in mind that they are all under 20.
 
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blackcat said:
The Manning and Wigans thing, that was a joke by you right? Paul Manning, Bradley Garmin Wigans.

Oh Wiggins... Why didnt you say that :D
 
Mar 13, 2009
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LugHugger said:
Interesting claims off the back of a post-Olympic squad taper for the GB. Perhaps some research into just how the GB team have won all of their medals might be in order?

Nice play on the Man U joke. Well done.....

claims are made off the back off losing Wigans and Manning in their teams formation. That is half the team right there. If you think that the improvement in Burke, and another rider, be it Swift, Tennant, recovered Bellis, Andy Kennaugh who only weighs 62 kgs, or someone like Rob Hayles, can pull out a time that they did in Beijing, for Copenhagen, I reckon you need to reassess.

So that is where the assessment came from. GB losing their team. The Australians getting some of the most talented young riders, and some like Durbridge are big wind blocks, and Hepburn is quite big in frame and torso.

Swift is tiny. Kennaugh is tiny. Bellis is a decent size.

If you said that the GB team brought in Cummings, Stannard or Hayles, then there might be a race.

The young Aus riders of Hepburn, Durbridge, Parker, really have it over the Brits, with Lowe, Christian, Fenn. But the GB program is far superior, think that Heiko Salzwedal is heading it up now.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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i'm almost discounting these latest results, to me the conditions seem to be worth 2 seconds during the heats. Still great rides. I'd honestly say the battle is between who can keep more riders focussed on the track.
 
Apr 29, 2009
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really looking forward to the battle of gb v aus, not only in the team pursuit but also the individual

if geraint thomas rides the head to head with bobridge will be amazing

anyone know what taylor phinneys plans are?
 
I think we will see two teams break 3 mins 55 secs in the heats of the Worlds this year. Its the event i'm most looking forward to watching, and until the teams are announced I won't comment on who will ride but no doubt the main squads for the medals will fly around the track at their best.

Even better, I have a week long ticket on the home straight in the Ballerup Super Arena and can't wait to fly out already.
 
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velodromeorguk said:
really looking forward to the battle of gb v aus, not only in the team pursuit but also the individual

if geraint thomas rides the head to head with bobridge will be amazing

anyone know what taylor phinneys plans are?

Geraint is down to ride E3, and Ghent-Wev that weekend. Im surprised, but at the moment looks like hes not riding the worlds..
 
Mar 13, 2009
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dimspace said:
Geraint is down to ride E3, and Ghent-Wev that weekend. Im surprised, but at the moment looks like hes not riding the worlds..
http://www.teamsky.com/profile/0,27291,17543_5771648,00.html

Upcoming schedule:
Paris-Nice 7-14 March, Milan-San Remo 20 March, E3 Prijs Vlaanderen-Harelbeke 27 March, Gent-Wevelgem 28 March.

IP 25th March.
Teams 26th.

Flight from Copenhagen to Brussels 2 hours.
But I dont see how he can do the teams pursuit, and finish at 7pm, and jump on a plane and be 100% for Harelbeke.

He might skip the teams, if he intends to ride E3, but I find that unlikely. He either misses E3, or both E3 and Ghent. Cant see him missing the teams.

Dim, you will be wrong. As usual. Ten quid on this.
 

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