Geelong 2010: Men's Under 23 Time Trial 31.8km

[The Hitch]

It happens all the time in time trials... just look at the final Tour TT, Menchov could probably have won it, or at least given Cancellara a fair run for the money, but he was 4 minutes back due to the massive headwind he had to plough through. One thing does strike me: winners make their own luck. So maybe Phinney is a winner.

I think Menchov would have taken a guaranteed place on the podium in a heartbeat over a tt stage win. And he got given that when Samu got injured. Im not saying he wouldnt have got it anyway. But it would have been close.

As for the "winners make their own luck". Are you joking?

If so, fine.

If not, its not true. Phiney may have been given a later slot due to his previous performances, but nature does not discriminate between right or wrong, winner and loser etc. Phinney was lucky. The good conditions came for him. On another day he would have had the rain.

Luck is all there is to it.

 

[theyoungest]

I think Menchov would have taken a guaranteed place on the podium in a heartbeat over a tt stage win. And he got given that when Samu got injured. Im not saying he wouldnt have got it anyway. But it would have been close.

As for the "winners make their own luck". Are you joking?

If so, fine.

If not, its not true. Phiney may have been given a later slot due to his previous performances, but nature does not discriminate between right or wrong, winner and loser etc. Phinney was lucky. The good conditions came for him. On another day he would have had the rain.

Luck is all there is to it.

I'm only half joking. Real winners always seem to have Lady Luck on their side. I'm not saying Phinney literally "made" his luck, he didn't do anything special, that sort of thing just seems to happen to winners. One of his rivals crashed out, the other one had bad luck with the weather. You can't make it up.

 

[The Hitch]

That sort of thing just seems to happen to winners. One of his rivals crashed out, the other one had bad luck with the weather. You can't make it up.

Well considering how big a factor luck can be, obviously someone who has luck on their side is more likely to become a winner.

But i dont think theres evidence that luck is more likely to help people who are already winners. Just this season several examples. Was Nibali a winner that Anton crashed out? Was Arroyo a winner that Laquilla gave him a gt podium. Or Richie Porte his young riders jersey. Were Oscar Freire or Damiano Cunego not winners that injuries ruined their seasons?

 

[theyoungest]

Well considering how big a factor luck can be, obviously someone who has luck on their side is more likely to become a winner.

But i dont think theres evidence that luck is more likely to help people who are already winners. Just this season several examples. Was Nibali a winner that Anton crashed out? Was Arroyo a winner that Laquilla gave him a gt podium. Or Richie Porte his young riders jersey. Were Oscar Freire or Damiano Cunego not winners that injuries ruined their seasons?

Obviously everyone gets lucky sometimes (or not so lucky), but some more than others. Of course statistically what I'm saying probably doesn't make any sense, but it just seems that way.