Okay, now that the UCI decided to publish some creative fiction in CyclingNews, I feel compelled to respond. I was one of the scientists on Stannard's defense team, so I can tell you more about the charges and lack of evidence that went into the decision. There is a good reasona why Bahrain looked at the data and concluded there was no evidence of doping; any competent scientist would come to the same conclusion. There will be a lot more coming out, but here is what happened.
Stannard was penalized for sample 2 (Hb and OFF) and sample 6 (reticulocyte% and OFF). What they don't tell you is that sample 2 was taken after 5 weeks of altitude training, and sample 6 was within both the biological passport limits and the normal population range. When adjusted for either age or altitude exposure, sample 2 was within the biological passport limits. No justification was given for overriding the passport on sample 6.
The "expert" panel (3 mediocre at best scientists) used some very creative statistics. They agreed that both age and altitude exposure would increase Hb and OFF, and if correct statistical procedures were used with the adjustments suggested by the panel, there was no positive test. The experts on the other hand, decided not to include any variability in their analysis, which meant that any sample would be deemed positive. The only justification for sample 6 being positive was that if an inconvenient data point were removed, the OFF score for sample 6 would be positive. But that isn't allowed.
We asked on multiple occasions for an independent review of the arguments, but the expert panel declined. For the tribunal, the judge selected and paid by the UCI decided no independent review was need because the expert panel would decide: in effect they were prosecution and jury. It was a kangaroo court.
Also note: 1) the WADA and UCI regulations specify that a case must be brought within seven days. This was ignored. 2) if procedures were followed, this expert panel would not have been the first to review the data. There would have been at least two others that looked at the same data and decided there was no proof of doping. The UCI claims to not keep records of previous analyses (if you have ever worked at a lab, you would be skeptical of that) and refused to release the results of the urine tests taken at the same time.
3) The biological passport is junk science. The current algorithm is hidden from the public and not made available to the defense. In fact, the expert panel didn't even know what was in the algorithm. The original paper was published in 2006, but after it was questioned in academic journals it was hidden, but it is apparent that something similar is used with lower variability. In any case, the UCI does not allow the biological passport to be questioned at the tribunal.
In the end, the tribunal made a very cynical decision in backdating the ban. If the ban had started when the procedures started, Stannard would have his career over and would have no reason not to go to CAS. But, because he was immediately eligible, he had to choose between appealing to CAS and being suspended until a decision was reached (probably in several years) or to resume his career.
I think it is fair to say that the current version of anti-doping is a joke. At some point it will go to a real court, and the UCI and WADA will lose badly.