Geraint Thomas, the next british hope

[Salvarani]

As in super-peaking, sure, but how many others showed no aptitude for GCs whatsoever until they were 29?

He won GCs in races or finished on the podium long before his "breakthrough" at 29. He had a few top 10-15s here and there, in a few other races. You also have to remember he worked for a leader in many races. He would do some great domestic work and told to let go and soft pedal, when work for the day was finished.

Through 2010-2015 he got better and better. Minor steps each season. It was not all just classics or ITTs, if you really deep-dive into it.

2016 he won both Algarve and P-N... in 2015 he also won Algarve, 5th P-N and 2nd Tour de Suisse. Seems like a rider who could win the Tour within the next three years.

2017 he had earned himself a chance to be leader in a GT, in the Giro, after having been a very great dom for years in the biggest races and steady developing, showing he could do it but crashed out that time. Didnt finish the Tour either.

2018 he was at an age were a cyclist used to be around their peak or still at it, normally. It was hard to think Thomas would become so good "all of a sudden", obviously not "all of a sudden" if reading the above, but that can also be said about a guy like Jorgenson this season. Look at his results last season... finishing top 5 in a few very hard and difficult stages of the Tour. His best GC-result was 4th in Tour de la Provence. 13th in Criterium du Dauphine. Look at this breakthrough season and results so far this year. Isnt that an even bigger leap than what Thomas did in over a 3-4 season span?

Thomas finished 21th in Criterum du Dauphine in 2010, almost the same time as a young Thibaut Pinot.

I feel like Thomas is a case of hard work, being a great servant and then getting the opportunity... mixed with some other stuff. Because who can be really sure when it comes to this sport, but to me it is not as farfetched as you or others make it out to be.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Except he wasn't 29 in 2018. He was 29 in 2015 when he became a climber. He was 32 in 2018. People compared his breaking through late to Indurain. When Thomas scored his first GT top 10 (which was also his win at the Tour), at that age Indurain had just withdrawn from the 1996 Vuelta and would never race again.

2010's Dauphiné was notorious for the overlong ITT that set the GC to a great extent (56km of ITT in a one week race). A year later he missed the time cut in the Dauphiné's mountains. Superdévoluy 2013, when he was 18th, was the first time he made a top 20 in any mountaintop finish in any major race - when he was 27 years old. He was then 17th the following day. He then had an awful Tour, I believe he was injured quite early on.

2014 is the first time you see any kind of uphill performance that could be considered 'promising', 6th on Winklmoos-Alm in the Bayernrundfahrt, but then he was motivated by winning the GC because he was wearing the leader's jersey after success in the ITT. And then, he finished on the same time as known GT icon Johan Tschopp. He then manages a solitary 19th at Planche des Belles Filles as the only top 20 of any mountain stage across the Dauphiné and the Tour. And this after Froome crashed out so he doesn't have the excuse of domestiquing either.

And the thing is, this is all fine. I've glossed over 2012 because he was focusing on the track for the Olympics. I've overlooked a whole load of his palmarès because crucially, these climbing races weren't what he was interested in back then. He was a Classics man, and had been for about a decade. It's what he'd been built for and those were the races he led. And he'd been pretty good, too. Unfortunately for him, his propensity for crashing meant he kept winning and podiuming smaller races like E3 and Gent-Wevelgem and then underperforming in the monuments, but you can't have it all.

Then in 2015 he is suddenly winning at Fóia, matching the best at Croix de Chaubouret, and most crucially, 5th at the Rettenbachferner. Until then, the climbs he'd succeeded at were either short enough to say he could punch his way over, or they were diesel grinders. Rettenbachferner being 12km at 10,5% meant that him climbing that with the best was jaw-dropping. And then he was sitting in the top 5 of the Tour two weeks in before collapsing away.

So I'm afraid when it comes to saying that he made steady improvements throughout his career to reaching his best at the tail end of his 20s, I just have to agree to disagree. He was never a complete scrub climber, but he certainly wasn't better than, say, Greg van Avermaet or Alexander Kristoff to name a couple of riders who tended to do the same kind of races as him, and he was a lot worse than, say, Edvald Boasson Hagen or Peter Sagan. And then at 27 he started to not totally suck. And then at 29 he flicked a lightswitch and became an elite climber. He was always a talented cyclist, but he suddenly just changed the type of rider he was completely after almost a decade as a pro. I mean, if Sepp Kuss just started specialising as a rouleur next year, and then in 2026 or 2027 managed to set the hour record or win Paris-Roubaix, that's the kind of transformation we're talking here.

And then he won the Tour de France, and has then in his mid-30s gone on to start beating the power outputs he had when he won the Tour, as well as disappearing for months at a time to reappear as an undroppable kilowatt machine at Grand Tours.

I'd actually rather put my hand in the fire for Wiggins.

 

[Mayomaniac]

As in super-peaking, sure, but how many others showed no aptitude for GCs whatsoever until they were 29?

Just like Alarcon he was raised on bread and water at Saunier-Duval...

 

[Salvarani]

But you ignore that for many years he was a helper in the high mountains and many stage races.

He used to be the third man left for Froome. Porte being the last one in the infamous Sky-train.

Thomas probably could have made a lot of good stage results here and there. GCs of his own, but he was not used in that way. He didnt get an opportunity to do so until later.

That he was very focused on track until 2012 is obviously also a big part of it, not something to just look past by. It was probably his biggest focus up until that point. Then the focus on road came afterwards, which could explain a "late" development/improvement.

Sky also put all their eggs in one basket with Froome past Wiggins, there was no room for someone else for a few years to be/become a leader. Thomas earned that right through years of service and being a top-class dom. He would have been a leader long before that at another team.

 

[Netserk]

In 2013 he was wearing the leader's jersey on Willunga hill. He was 17th, behind Rojas.

What are the races where he probably could have made a good result if he had freedom?

 

[Salvarani]

In 2013 he was wearing the leader's jersey on Willunga hill. He was 17th, behind Rojas.

What are the races where he probably could have made a good result if he had freedom?

First race of the season is a really good measurement of someone capabilities.

 

[Netserk]

First race of the season is a really good measurement of someone capabilities.

He made his best result of the year there.

 

[Salvarani]

He made his best result of the year there.

His stage-win, sure.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In 2013 he was wearing the leader's jersey on Willunga hill. He was 17th, behind Rojas.

What are the races where he probably could have made a good result if he had freedom?

The 2014 Tour?

 

[Netserk]

The 2014 Tour?

He did have freedom there though, right? I think he at one point even was the best in GC from the team.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Why are we assuming everyone at the top end of the sport is doping and simultaneously debating whether Geraint Thomas doped? Or are we proposing the idea that Sky somehow had a more established program back in the middle of the last decade, which is probably true? I don‘t think he‘s doing anything special now or that he‘s doping more than anyone else.
So what if he was doing more PEDs (marginal gains) than the others in 2018, it seems impossible that Ineos has a secret program now that only works for British weirdos like him and TGH. Yet still, people bring up his
mysterious beginnings in the GC crowd as a reason to hate him. So if he did not have the climbing talent before, where did it come from? Is it meticulous gene editing? Is it training harder🤣? I just don‘t understand why we are getting the pitchforks ready? I don‘t think peaking all year like Van Aert or Pogačar is gonna get him out of this scrutiny and Derek Gee sure isn’t (yet? Watch out, he‘s coming)on track to be demonised for his track origins. Maybe he is just a cycling reminder of the Sky train and that‘s why people hold a grudge. I only started watching cycling outside the Tour in 2017, so it is all a bit puzzling to me.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It's more about what is above and below our personal limits of suspension of disbelief.

Thomas is the hardest thing in the sport right now for me to un-see.

 

[samhocking]

It comes down to British = bad doping, not British = acceptable doping (so long as you had smooth progression like Pantani & Valverde). There's no rational argument or even conclusion by the 3 billion comments on Froome & Sky going nowhere since 2012!

 

[Netserk]

It comes down to British = bad doping, not British = acceptable doping (so long as you had smooth progression like Pantani & Valverde). There's no rational argument or even conclusion by the 3 billion comments on Froome & Sky going nowhere since 2012!

Carthy's podium in the Vuelta wasn't met with "= bad doping".

I also don't think the Yates brothers have faced harsher criticism in the clinic than what you could expect for a non-Brit.

 

[macbindle]

Remind me.. when was that fabled GT win by a clean rider?

Oh yeah...forgot. Vuelta '13

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It comes down to British = bad doping, not British = acceptable doping (so long as you had smooth progression like Pantani & Valverde). There's no rational argument or even conclusion by the 3 billion comments on Froome & Sky going nowhere since 2012!

And every few months we get accused of it all being nationalistic anti-Brit stuff, and the cycle continues. I mean, it's five and a half years since I posted this explanation of why Sky/Ineos get more scrutiny because of getting sick of people trying to make light of any issues by jumping into the Lance playbook and blaming jealous nationalism, and here we are yet again with the same old s*** years down the line.

As Netserk says, Carthy ain't seeing the same hate. Neither are Oscar Onley, Max Poole, Ethan Hayter, Tom Pidcock, Fred Wright, James Knox or Simon Carr. Two of those even ride for Ineos. It's the Brailsford inner sanctum, and Thomas's career is about as personally tied to Brailsford as it is possible to be.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

It's more about what is above and below our personal limits of suspension of disbelief.

Thomas is the hardest thing in the sport right now for me to un-see.

Lol. Really?

I don't disagree with most the things you say about Thomas. I think he is a hardcore product of ineos medical program and agree with what you say on his career progression. We know what's going on. But he's not the worst thing in the sport in 2023

This year he has performed well on 1 low altitude MTF against Almida, injured roglic and Eddie donbar. This is basically a tirreno adriatico level of fatigue right now, and the two glowing red-hot riders TGH and remco are not there. It's literally the first mountain stage of the Giro and it's no that hard and he's finishing second in a mediocre field.

Meanwhile you have Pogacar winning every race of all kinds for 3 months and sipping San pellegrino at the finish whilst looking fresh as a spring daisy.

If Thomas wins easily on tre cime lavaredo we can start saying he's worse than alarcon. Yes his transformation is ridiculous but no individual performance has required me to suspend my disbelief to the same extent as some of the absurd things I saw in the last year. Belgian Pozzato dropping climber in Ventoux and winning time trials and bunch sprints for instance.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Lol. Really?

I don't disagree with most the things you say about Thomas. I think he is a hardcore product of ineos medical program and agree with what you say on his career progression. We know what's going on. But he's not the worst thing in the sport in 2023

I didn't say he was the worst thing though, I said he was the hardest thing for me to look beyond. I mean, there are still some of the Venezuelan motorbikes and there's the Volta a Portugal and there's Igor Frolov and so on. But Thomas is the one I find it hardest to look past, in much the same way as I watched the Volta a Portugal through the late 2000s and Cândido Barbosa was just beyond the pale for me even in those days.

 

[Fergoose]

I always do enjoy reading posters suggesting Thomas showed no aptitude on a bike until his late 20s OR that excelling in and focussing on other disciplines earlier in your career before having success riding tempo uphill later in your career makes you more suspect than a guy like Caruso. For context on Thomas:

Paris Nice Junior winner - aged 17? (I see Pidcock did likewise)
World Team Pursuit gold medalist - aged 21
Team Pursuit Olympic gold medalist - aged 22 (repeated when 26)
White Jersey holder after stage ITT - TdF - aged 25

So we see significant physiological ability at a young age both in a one day classics formats as well as much punchier efforts.

Then after the 2012 Olympics, aged 26, and only then, does he dedicate himself exclusively to the road, albeit seemingly focussing his relatively bulky body on the flat until 2015 (aged 29) when he finished 15th at the TdF. He repeated this feat aged 30. So understanding this we see an athlete with a history of high performance, including aged 17, transitioning fully to road racing late on at 26, eventually producing solid GC performances aged 29 and 30 before taking a step up to the elite level. You may not like the progression, but its arguably a fairly smooth progression over a 3-4 year period from 26 to 31 years old that would be consistent with someone transitioning from track, to rouler, to GC before becoming a GC winner at 32.

Given his career choices it would have been near impossible for him to evolve into a high level GC diesel before he was 28, so 29 isn't far fetched. I think it would understandbly take 2-3 years to transition your training and body away from your history on the track to the different, but not completely unrelated demands of the GC.

I can't say I like seeing a 36/37 year old beating the younger Roglic (33 year old) and leading the Giro. But its a weak and depleted field, Bahrain still aren't seemingly able to rediscover their pre-police raid 'form', Remco has had a virus and Roglic hasn't been feeling great.

Personally I will be cheering on Almeida as I quite like his career progression and he is in his physical prime, unlike the rest of the top 4. But any suggestion Thomas is a nobody who overnight became a world leading GC peformer is not an assessment of his career that I can share. To have him smoking Eddy Dunbar by 25 seconds on a prolonged, diesel favouring climb also isn't something that strikes me as particularly alarming.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So would you buy Sepp Kuss, Paris-Roubaix winner?

 

[Red Rick]

Except he wasn't 29 in 2018. He was 29 in 2015 when he became a climber. He was 32 in 2018. People compared his breaking through late to Indurain. When Thomas scored his first GT top 10 (which was also his win at the Tour), at that age Indurain had just withdrawn from the 1996 Vuelta and would never race again.

2010's Dauphiné was notorious for the overlong ITT that set the GC to a great extent (56km of ITT in a one week race). A year later he missed the time cut in the Dauphiné's mountains. Superdévoluy 2013, when he was 18th, was the first time he made a top 20 in any mountaintop finish in any major race - when he was 27 years old. He was then 17th the following day. He then had an awful Tour, I believe he was injured quite early on.

2014 is the first time you see any kind of uphill performance that could be considered 'promising', 6th on Winklmoos-Alm in the Bayernrundfahrt, but then he was motivated by winning the GC because he was wearing the leader's jersey after success in the ITT. And then, he finished on the same time as known GT icon Johan Tschopp. He then manages a solitary 19th at Planche des Belles Filles as the only top 20 of any mountain stage across the Dauphiné and the Tour. And this after Froome crashed out so he doesn't have the excuse of domestiquing either.

And the thing is, this is all fine. I've glossed over 2012 because he was focusing on the track for the Olympics. I've overlooked a whole load of his palmarès because crucially, these climbing races weren't what he was interested in back then. He was a Classics man, and had been for about a decade. It's what he'd been built for and those were the races he led. And he'd been pretty good, too. Unfortunately for him, his propensity for crashing meant he kept winning and podiuming smaller races like E3 and Gent-Wevelgem and then underperforming in the monuments, but you can't have it all.

Then in 2015 he is suddenly winning at Fóia, matching the best at Croix de Chaubouret, and most crucially, 5th at the Rettenbachferner. Until then, the climbs he'd succeeded at were either short enough to say he could punch his way over, or they were diesel grinders. Rettenbachferner being 12km at 10,5% meant that him climbing that with the best was jaw-dropping. And then he was sitting in the top 5 of the Tour two weeks in before collapsing away.

So I'm afraid when it comes to saying that he made steady improvements throughout his career to reaching his best at the tail end of his 20s, I just have to agree to disagree. He was never a complete scrub climber, but he certainly wasn't better than, say, Greg van Avermaet or Alexander Kristoff to name a couple of riders who tended to do the same kind of races as him, and he was a lot worse than, say, Edvald Boasson Hagen or Peter Sagan. And then at 27 he started to not totally suck. And then at 29 he flicked a lightswitch and became an elite climber. He was always a talented cyclist, but he suddenly just changed the type of rider he was completely after almost a decade as a pro. I mean, if Sepp Kuss just started specialising as a rouleur next year, and then in 2026 or 2027 managed to set the hour record or win Paris-Roubaix, that's the kind of transformation we're talking here.

And then he won the Tour de France, and has then in his mid-30s gone on to start beating the power outputs he had when he won the Tour, as well as disappearing for months at a time to reappear as an undroppable kilowatt machine at Grand Tours.

I'd actually rather put my hand in the fire for Wiggins.

Or when he does literally any race after the Tour and is guaranteed Grupetto filler

 

[hrotha]

In 2012, for the London Olympics, Thomas decided to focus on the track. He put on weight, his climbing got a lot worse, and he did his best ITTs up to that point of his career. He very obviously didn't do things the same way he did before or after that Olympic year. THAT was when he was bulky and primarily a track rider, not at any point before or after that year but before his magical GT transformation. What, pray tell, did he change that year, if according to you guys he was also focusing on the track in 2011 and 2013? How did he manage to improve his time-trialing again a few years later without his climbing suffering for it?

 

[Rob5091]

"How did he manage to improve his time-trialing again a few years later without his climbing suffering for it?"
That is something only Doc Freeman probably knows.

 

[Me gal in da rain]

jaysus - what a cynical place....

it is a well-known among the folk of lower abertillery that Geraint preserves and enhances his extreme physical and mental gifts by dining on nothing but stale bara brith and water

the man deserves a whole load of respect. - in an era when 25 is starting to look like past peak, on his 37th birthday, he is easing his way up the dolomites in a lovely shade of pink ...

penblwydd hapus iawn Geraint




that birthday cake was supposed to be larger

 

[pastronef]

So would you buy Sepp Kuss, Paris-Roubaix winner?

if he focuses on cobbles, it would probably take him a few years to change his riding style, gain weight, ride miles and miles and miles in Belgium and France. he's 1m81. he can put 10 kilos on. and focus on cobbles
Thomas won his first stage race in 2011, in Bayern. he won E3 in 2015. he placed 15th in GC and the 2015 and 2016 TDF. he had been riding as a right hand man for Froome since 2013. ten years on he still does it, he knows how to climb. he didn't wake up one morning and started winning/podiuming the TDF.
Kuss won't wake up one morning and go top10 in Flanders (and maybe he will, Jorgenson did it. he was also 4th in E3, won Oman and was 2nd in Romandie. similar to what Thomas did. he won Algarve in 2015 and won E3 too)
Geraint *** Thomas is an above average rider, and above average riders do amazing things. and it's just great to see. yes I am very very biased